TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ SD

Suppressed air · 0.88×

TOR @ SD

Petco Park · 8:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.88× Wind 7 mph cross 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

-8 ↑

5:40p

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6:40p

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7:40p

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8:40p

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9:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · -8 FIT

Best of game Kazuma Okamoto conv 28 · vs Buehler ⟷ Manny Machado conv 31 · vs Yesavage → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK Walker Buehler RHP · SD

leak 97

1.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.89 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kazuma Okamoto +330 C ●●●●○

2 George Springer +575 D ●●●○○

3 Nathan Lukes +1000 D ●○○○○

FADE Trey Yesavage RHP · TOR

leak 89

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.44 · stingy — thin edge

1 Manny Machado +475 C ●●●●●

2 Luis Campusano +575 D ●●○○○

3 Gavin Sheets +460 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: Match 28.7% · 14D pace 27.3% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Manny Machado vs Yesavage +475 0.218 · 90.1 · 7.8% 35.7% 25.3% F B O C 51

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto ✶ COOL vs Buehler +330 0.220 · 91.3 · 11.6% 27.3% 28.7% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· TOR George Springer vs Buehler +575 0.170 · 88.3 · 8.6% 16.7% 18.6% F B O D 43

· SD Luis Campusano vs Yesavage +575 0.275 · 87.2 · 7.7% 0.0% 29.3% F B O D 45

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Yesavage Edge +460 0.215 · 88.3 · 6.6% 8.3% 14.2% F B O D 42

· SD Jackson Merrill COOL vs Yesavage Edge +575 0.135 · 89.4 · 7.3% 14.3% 6.6% F B O D 36

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Buehler Edge +1000 0.102 · 86.5 · 3.4% 8.3% 7.3% F B O D 29

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Yesavage +750 0.102 · 88.2 · 5.7% 7.1% 7.9% F B O D 31

· SD Ty France COOL vs Yesavage +500 0.203 · 91.1 · 7.6% 0.0% 14.1% F B O D 42

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela COOL vs Buehler Edge — 0.170 · 88.3 · 8.6% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 40

· SD Jake Cronenworth vs Yesavage Edge +850 0.086 · 87.3 · 6.2% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 30

· TOR Daulton Varsho COOL vs Buehler Edge +475 0.149 · 85.7 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 37

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Buehler +1000 0.132 · 85.3 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 31

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Buehler Edge +800 0.131 · 86.3 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.0% BRK 29.2% OFF 9.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

16.3% 8.3% 17.6% 14.3% C 57 +330

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

129

George Springer R

8.8% 6.2% 8.7% 8.0% D 43 +575

157

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

2.8% 22.2% 13.0% 8.0% D 40 —

191

Daulton Varsho L Edge

8.0% 1.6% 6.9% 6.0% D 37 +475

230

Ernie Clement R

2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 2.2% D 31 +1000

236

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.1% 2.9% 6.1% 3.4% D 30 +800

241

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 2.6% 2.9% 1.2% D 29 +1000

Read the columns: no single family leads Buehler's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.3% ← leak OFF 30.0% BRK 23.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Manny Machado R

13.0% 5.9% 7.1% 10.4% C 51 +475

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

105

Luis Campusano R

9.1% 25.0% 6.7% 9.6% D 45 +575

138

Gavin Sheets L Edge

10.3% 4.5% 4.9% 8.1% D 42 +460

139

Ty France R

10.1% 8.7% 10.0% 9.9% D 42 +500

196

Jackson Merrill L Edge

10.2% 7.5% 9.0% 9.3% D 36 +575

229

Xander Bogaerts R

7.3% 4.8% 3.3% 6.1% D 31 +750

238

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

7.0% 5.6% 5.9% 6.6% D 30 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.3% usage) carries Yesavage's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Springer Machado Campusano

Legend

attack side — vs Buehler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Manny Machado +475 · 51

Kazuma Okamoto +330 · 57

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 5:40p · roof open

Park 0.88× Wind 7 mph cross 75°F open

-8

↑

8 mph · cross

72°F

5:40p · peak

-8

↑

8 mph · cross

72°F

6:40p

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8 mph · cross

72°F

7:40p

-8

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8 mph · cross

72°F

8:40p

-8

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8 mph · cross

72°F

9:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.88× 75°F, wind 7 mph WSW (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Walker Buehler · RHP 1.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.89 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 57 C +330 COOL 32 0.220 91.3 11.6% 32.0%vs RHP 397 21.6% 27.3% 28.7% 30

2 George Springer 43 D +575 WARM 129 0.170 88.3 8.6% 22.9%vs RHP 394 10.3% 16.7% 18.6% 13

3 Brandon Valenzuela 40 D — COOL 157 0.170 88.3 8.6% 20.8%vs RHP 397 10.0% 0.0% 10.4% 8

4 Daulton Varsho 37 D +475 COOL 191 0.149 85.7 7.6% 12.5%vs RHP 386 7.8% 0.0% 8.2% 32

5 Ernie Clement 31 D +1000 COOL 230 0.132 85.3 4.5% 6.7%vs RHP 374 8.0% 0.0% 7.4% 45

6 Andres Gimenez 30 D +800 COOL 236 0.131 86.3 5.7% 12.2%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 21

7 Nathan Lukes 29 D +1000 WARM 241 0.102 86.5 3.4% 13.8%vs RHP 378 5.5% 8.3% 7.3% 39

vs Trey Yesavage · RHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.44 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado 51 C +475 WARM 65 0.218 90.1 7.8% 30.0%vs RHP 395 20.5% 35.7% 25.3% 32

2 Luis Campusano 45 D +575 WARM 105 0.275 87.2 7.7% 33.3%vs RHP 406 33.3% 0.0% 29.3% 12

3 Gavin Sheets 42 D +460 COOL 138 0.215 88.3 6.6% 34.9%vs RHP 397 12.3% 8.3% 14.2% 37

4 Ty France 42 D +500 COOL 139 0.203 91.1 7.6% 30.8%vs RHP 393 13.2% 0.0% 14.1% 27

5 Jackson Merrill 36 D +575 COOL 196 0.135 89.4 7.3% 14.5%vs RHP 406 11.5% 14.3% 6.6% 40

6 Xander Bogaerts 31 D +750 · 229 0.102 88.2 5.7% 17.5%vs RHP 395 9.3% 7.1% 7.9% 35

7 Jake Cronenworth 30 D +850 WARM 238 0.086 87.3 6.2% 16.7%vs RHP 389 2.2% 0.0% 9.4% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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