TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.83×

MIL @ PIT

PNC Park · 4:05p · 28 ranked batters

Park 0.83× Wind 1 mph in 70°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

4:05p

-2 ↑

5:05p

-2 ↑

6:05p

-2 ↑

7:05p

-1 ↑

8:05p

conditions build late — the 8:05p window peaks -1

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 24 · vs Chandler ⟷ Bryan Reynolds conv 22 · vs Drohan → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Bubba Chandler RHP · PIT

leak 86

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.37 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers +510 C ●●●●○

2 Jackson Chourio +525 C ●●●○○

3 Joey Ortiz — D ●●○○○

FADE Shane Drohan LHP · MIL

leak 3

0.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.48 · stingy — thin edge

1 Bryan Reynolds +575 D ●●●○○

2 Ryan O'Hearn +575 D ●●○○○

3 Brandon Lowe +390 D ●●○○○

FADE PIT Bullpen Proxy

leak 48

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Bauers +510 C ●●●○○

2 Jackson Chourio +525 C ●●●○○

3 Joey Ortiz — D ●●○○○

FADE MIL Bullpen Proxy

leak 33

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Bryan Reynolds +575 D ●●●○○

2 Ryan O'Hearn +575 D ●●●○○

3 Brandon Lowe +390 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: Match 24.2% · 14D pace 20.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ COOL vs Chandler Edge +510 0.266 · 92.3 · 9.6% 20.0% 28.2% F B O C 56

· — Jake Bauers ✶ COOL vs Proxy +510 0.266 · 92.3 · 13.4% 20.0% 24.2% F B O C 59

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Chandler Edge +525 0.225 · 92.6 · 9.8% 21.4% 19.0% F B O C 51

· — Jackson Chourio vs Proxy +525 0.225 · 92.6 · 14.0% 21.4% 17.6% F B O C 54

· — Brandon Lowe vs Proxy +390 0.242 · 90.9 · 12.4% 16.7% 14.7% F B O C 52

· — Garrett Mitchell HOT vs Proxy +510 0.182 · 93.0 · 15.4% 14.3% 13.8% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 22 long shots

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Drohan Edge +575 0.195 · 90.9 · 9.1% 23.1% 20.1% F B O D 45

· — Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Proxy +575 0.195 · 90.9 · 10.3% 23.1% 16.5% F B O D 46

· — Ryan O'Hearn vs Proxy +575 0.195 · 89.7 · 7.9% 16.7% 16.4% F B O D 42

· — Joey Ortiz vs Proxy — 0.076 · 87.7 · 3.6% 25.0% 6.8% F B O D 26

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Chandler — 0.076 · 87.7 · 5.0% 25.0% 6.2% F B O D 29

· MIL Garrett Mitchell HOT vs Chandler Edge +510 0.182 · 93.0 · 10.2% 14.3% 16.2% F B O D 46

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn vs Drohan +575 0.195 · 89.7 · 8.0% 16.7% 13.7% F B O D 41

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Drohan +390 0.242 · 90.9 · 10.0% 16.7% 11.9% F B O D 48

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Chandler Edge +550 0.195 · 90.9 · 7.4% 14.3% 12.2% F B O D 43

· — Brice Turang COOL vs Proxy +550 0.195 · 90.9 · 8.0% 14.3% 10.7% F B O D 42

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Chandler Edge +750 0.132 · 88.8 · 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% F B O D 35

· — Christian Yelich vs Proxy +750 0.132 · 88.8 · 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% F B O D 34

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Drohan Edge — 0.069 · 84.2 · 3.6% 8.3% 5.3% F B O D 21

· — Jake Mangum vs Proxy — 0.069 · 84.2 · 1.6% 8.3% 5.3% F B O D 19

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Drohan Edge +1000 0.084 · 86.1 · 4.7% 7.7% 5.9% F B O D 23

· — Nick Gonzales COOL vs Proxy +1000 0.084 · 86.1 · 2.7% 7.7% 5.4% F B O D 21

· PIT Marcell Ozuna COOL vs Drohan Edge — 0.115 · 89.7 · 8.3% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 32

· — Marcell Ozuna COOL vs Proxy — 0.115 · 89.7 · 8.5% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 32

· — William Contreras COOL vs Proxy +650 0.137 · 90.1 · 7.2% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 34

· MIL William Contreras COOL vs Chandler +650 0.137 · 90.1 · 7.0% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 35

· MIL Sal Frelick COOL vs Chandler Edge +950 0.091 · 85.9 · 3.8% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 25

· — Sal Frelick COOL vs Proxy +950 0.091 · 85.9 · 2.1% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.8% ← leak BRK 28.4% OFF 16.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.2% 13.2% 13.8% 13.9% C 56 +510

Jackson Chourio S Edge

14.6% 15.9% 4.3% 13.8% C 51 +525

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

18.3% 13.0% 5.6% 15.2% D 46 +510

115

Brice Turang L Edge

8.9% 9.5% 2.4% 8.0% D 43 +550

176

Christian Yelich L Edge

4.8% 10.9% 13.3% 7.2% D 35 +750

177

William Contreras R

10.0% 7.1% 0.0% 8.4% D 35 +650

217

Joey Ortiz R

2.8% 5.7% 0.0% 3.5% D 29 —

227

Sal Frelick L Edge

1.2% 5.3% 0.0% 2.0% D 25 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.8% usage) carries Chandler's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.8% ← leak BRK 33.9% OFF 4.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brandon Lowe L

16.5% 7.1% 12.5% 12.6% D 48 +390

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

9.8% 14.7% 5.4% 10.2% D 45 +575

131

Ryan O'Hearn L

10.1% 6.2% 4.5% 8.5% D 41 +575

199

Marcell Ozuna R Edge

8.8% 8.7% 0.0% 8.2% D 32 —

230

Nick Gonzales R Edge

1.8% 4.9% 0.0% 2.6% D 23 +1000

236

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% D 21 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.8% usage) carries Drohan's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for PIT Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for MIL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Mitchell Turang Ortiz Lowe Reynolds O'Hearn Bauers Chourio Mitchell Ortiz Lowe Reynolds O'Hearn

Legend

attack side — vs Chandler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Jake Bauers +510 · 56

Jake Bauers +510 · 59

Jackson Chourio +525 · 51

Bryan Reynolds +575 · 45

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 4:05p · roof open

Park 0.83× Wind 1 mph in 70°F open

-2

↑

2 mph · out

76°F

4:05p

-2

↑

2 mph · out

77°F

5:05p

-2

↑

3 mph · out

75°F

6:05p

-2

↑

3 mph · out

73°F

7:05p

-1

↑

4 mph · out

71°F

8:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.83× 70°F, wind 1 mph S (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bubba Chandler · RHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.37 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 56 C +510 COOL 29 0.266 92.3 9.6% 37.0%vs RHP 402 20.0% 20.0% 28.2% 34

2 Jackson Chourio 51 C +525 · 57 0.225 92.6 9.8% 19.2%vs RHP 402 18.5% 21.4% 19.0% 41

3 Garrett Mitchell 46 D +510 HOT 93 0.182 93.0 10.2% 29.6%vs RHP 415 9.7% 14.3% 16.2% 29

4 Brice Turang 43 D +550 COOL 115 0.195 90.9 7.4% 27.7%vs RHP 408 11.1% 14.3% 12.2% 47

5 Christian Yelich 35 D +750 WARM 176 0.132 88.8 7.1% 14.8%vs RHP 402 7.0% 7.1% 7.1% 28

6 William Contreras 35 D +650 COOL 177 0.137 90.1 7.0% 18.2%vs RHP 419 10.5% 0.0% 6.3% 41

7 Joey Ortiz 29 D — WARM 217 0.076 87.7 5.0% 8.0%vs RHP 407 3.5% 25.0% 6.2% 34

8 Sal Frelick 25 D +950 COOL 227 0.091 85.9 3.8% 5.1%vs RHP 402 2.6% 0.0% 6.0% 34

vs Shane Drohan · LHP 0.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.48 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 48 D +390 · 78 0.242 90.9 10.0% 18.2%vs LHP 392 17.3% 16.7% 11.9% 33

2 Bryan Reynolds 45 D +575 COOL 97 0.195 90.9 9.1% 28.6%vs LHP 409 14.8% 23.1% 20.1% 32

3 Ryan O'Hearn 41 D +575 WARM 131 0.195 89.7 8.0% 21.1%vs LHP 384 15.9% 16.7% 13.7% 40

4 Marcell Ozuna 32 D — COOL 199 0.115 89.7 8.3% 20.0%vs LHP 413 8.7% 0.0% 9.2% 5

5 Nick Gonzales 23 D +1000 COOL 230 0.084 86.1 4.7% 5.6%vs LHP 399 4.7% 7.7% 5.9% 33

6 Jake Mangum 21 D — WARM 236 0.069 84.2 3.6% 0.0%vs LHP 408 4.0% 8.3% 5.3% 38

vs PIT Bullpen Proxy 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 59 C +510 COOL 32 0.266 92.3 13.4% 29.0% 402 20.0% 20.0% 24.2% 34

2 Jackson Chourio 54 C +525 · 62 0.225 92.6 14.0% 19.7% 402 18.5% 21.4% 17.6% 41

3 Garrett Mitchell 50 C +510 HOT 92 0.182 93.0 15.4% 22.2% 415 9.7% 14.3% 13.8% 29

4 Brice Turang 42 D +550 COOL 154 0.195 90.9 8.0% 23.0% 408 11.1% 14.3% 10.7% 47

5 Christian Yelich 34 D +750 WARM 207 0.132 88.8 7.5% 15.8% 402 7.0% 7.1% 6.6% 28

6 William Contreras 34 D +650 COOL 208 0.137 90.1 7.2% 11.9% 419 10.5% 0.0% 6.5% 41

7 Joey Ortiz 26 D — WARM 234 0.076 87.7 3.6% 6.1% 407 3.5% 25.0% 6.8% 34

8 Sal Frelick 21 D +950 COOL 240 0.091 85.9 2.1% 4.2% 402 2.6% 0.0% 5.5% 34

vs MIL Bullpen Proxy 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 52 C +390 · 74 0.242 90.9 12.4% 19.4% 392 17.3% 16.7% 14.7% 33

2 Bryan Reynolds 46 D +575 COOL 122 0.195 90.9 10.3% 20.3% 409 14.8% 23.1% 16.5% 32

3 Ryan O'Hearn 42 D +575 WARM 153 0.195 89.7 7.9% 19.5% 384 15.9% 16.7% 16.4% 40

4 Marcell Ozuna 32 D — COOL 219 0.115 89.7 8.5% 11.7% 413 8.7% 0.0% 7.3% 5

5 Nick Gonzales 21 D +1000 COOL 241 0.084 86.1 2.7% 6.7% 399 4.7% 7.7% 5.4% 33

6 Jake Mangum 19 D — WARM 242 0.069 84.2 1.6% 5.7% 408 4.0% 8.3% 5.3% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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