TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ CWS

Suppressed air · 0.86×

ATH @ CWS

Rate Field · 2:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.86× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Tyler Soderstrom conv 21 · vs Hudson ⟷ Colson Montgomery conv 25 · vs Jump → edge: Colson Montgomery

ATTACK Bryan Hudson LHP · CWS

leak 26

0.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.76 · leakiest side of this game

1 Tyler Soderstrom +370 D ●●●○○

2 Shea Langeliers +255 D ●●○○○

3 Nick Kurtz — D ●●○○○

FADE Gage Jump LHP · ATH

leak 22

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · stingy — thin edge

1 Colson Montgomery +320 C ●●●●○

2 Miguel Vargas +305 C ●●●○○

3 Tristan Peters — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Colson Montgomery: 14.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Colson Montgomery ✶ COOL vs Jump +320 0.251 · 89.1 · 8.8% 25.0% 25.5% F B O C 52

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Jump Edge +305 0.233 · 90.3 · 9.0% 23.1% 15.3% F B O C 50

· CWS Munetaka Murakami vs Jump +290 0.307 · 94.2 · 10.8% 0.0% 18.2% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom vs Hudson +370 0.227 · 90.0 · 7.2% 25.0% 16.4% F B O D 44

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Jump — 0.162 · 86.8 · 5.1% 18.2% 7.2% F B O D 34

· ATH Shea Langeliers vs Hudson Edge +255 0.229 · 91.6 · 8.8% 9.1% 14.4% F B O D 47

· ATH Nick Kurtz COOL vs Hudson — 0.225 · 93.6 · 9.8% 10.0% 12.4% F B O D 48

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Jump +950 0.124 · 87.6 · 6.1% 9.1% 5.0% F B O D 31

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Jump Edge +850 0.113 · 87.8 · 5.0% 7.7% 6.3% F B O D 28

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Jump — 0.180 · 89.1 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 38

· ATH Carlos Cortes vs Hudson — 0.150 · 89.7 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 32

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Hudson +575 0.113 · 88.9 · 5.7% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 28

· ATH Jacob Wilson COOL vs Hudson Edge +950 0.100 · 84.1 · 2.9% 0.0% 5.2% F B O D 23

· CWS Luisangel Acuna COOL vs Jump Edge — 0.032 · 89.7 · 4.8% 0.0% 5.1% F B O D 22

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Hudson +950 0.076 · 86.4 · 2.2% 0.0% 4.9% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 73.0% ← leak BRK 24.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Nick Kurtz L

17.0% 21.8% 18.0% D 48 —

Shea Langeliers R Edge

17.1% 16.1% 14.9% D 47 +255

110

Tyler Soderstrom L

9.2% 18.5% 10.0% D 44 +370

200

Carlos Cortes L

8.4% 5.0% 8.0% D 32 —

221

Lawrence Butler L

6.7% 10.3% 6.8% D 28 +575

232

Jacob Wilson R Edge

2.6% 0.0% 1.6% D 23 +950

237

Jeff Mcneil L

0.0% 2.2% 0.9% D 20 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (73.0% usage) carries Hudson's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 48.5% ← leak BRK 42.4% OFF 8.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami

23.1% 15.6% 22.2% 20.3% C 53 +290

Colson Montgomery L

14.4% 14.0% 12.5% 14.0% C 52 +320

Miguel Vargas R Edge

16.1% 11.5% 13.8% 14.4% C 50 +305

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

162

Andrew Benintendi L

14.3% 6.2% 6.8% 10.5% D 38 —

185

Tristan Peters L

6.2% 4.5% 0.0% 5.0% D 34 —

205

Sam Antonacci L

8.0% 7.5% 0.0% 6.7% D 31 +950

222

Chase Meidroth R Edge

4.7% 6.2% 2.4% 4.7% D 28 +850

235

Luisangel Acuna R Edge

5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 4.8% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.5% usage) carries Jump's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soderstrom Montgomery Vargas

Legend

attack side — vs Hudson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Colson Montgomery +320 · 52

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 2:10p · roof unknown

Park 0.86× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Suppress · Combined 0.86× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bryan Hudson · LHP 0.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.76 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nick Kurtz 48 D — COOL 77 0.225 93.6 9.8% 25.0%vs LHP 412 20.7% 10.0% 12.4% 21

2 Shea Langeliers 47 D +255 · 84 0.229 91.6 8.8% 34.6%vs LHP 417 19.0% 9.1% 14.4% 18

3 Tyler Soderstrom 44 D +370 WARM 110 0.227 90.0 7.2% 30.0%vs LHP 403 15.0% 25.0% 16.4% 4

4 Carlos Cortes 32 D — · 200 0.150 89.7 6.6% 11.8% 404 4.6% 0.0% 7.0% 13

5 Lawrence Butler 28 D +575 WARM 221 0.113 88.9 5.7% 16.2% 402 3.9% 0.0% 6.5% 21

6 Jacob Wilson 23 D +950 COOL 232 0.100 84.1 2.9% 7.1%vs LHP 375 4.6% 0.0% 5.2% 9

7 Jeff Mcneil 20 D +950 WARM 237 0.076 86.4 2.2% 0.0%vs LHP 373 4.3% 0.0% 4.9% 24

vs Gage Jump · LHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 53 C +290 · 43 0.307 94.2 10.8% 33.3%vs LHP 409 17.9% 0.0% 18.2% 0

2 Colson Montgomery ✶ 52 C +320 COOL 46 0.251 89.1 8.8% 34.8%vs LHP 398 26.4% 25.0% 25.5% 34

3 Miguel Vargas 50 C +305 WARM 65 0.233 90.3 9.0% 28.6%vs LHP 389 22.4% 23.1% 15.3% 36

4 Andrew Benintendi 38 D — COOL 162 0.180 89.1 7.5% 14.3% 391 15.3% 0.0% 8.9% 24

5 Tristan Peters 34 D — · 185 0.162 86.8 5.1% 7.7% 371 9.2% 18.2% 7.2% 30

6 Sam Antonacci 31 D +950 COOL 205 0.124 87.6 6.1% 0.0%vs LHP 405 8.0% 9.1% 5.0% 35

7 Chase Meidroth 28 D +850 COOL 222 0.113 87.8 5.0% 12.5%vs LHP 376 6.5% 7.7% 6.3% 33

8 Luisangel Acuna 22 D — COOL 235 0.032 89.7 4.8% 0.0%vs LHP 416 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 9

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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