TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ DET

Comerica Park is live · 1.13×

PHI @ DET

Comerica Park · 6:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 6 mph in 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

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6:10p

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7:10p

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8:10p

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9:10p

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10:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · -8 FIT

Best of game Spencer Torkelson conv 23 · vs Sánchez ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 25 · vs Mize → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Cristopher Sánchez LHP · PHI

leak 87

0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · leakiest side of this game

1 Spencer Torkelson — C ●●●●○

2 Riley Greene — D ●●●○○

3 Hao-Yu Lee — D ●●●○○

FADE Casey Mize RHP · DET

leak 3

0.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.85 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber — C+ ●●●●○

2 Trea Turner — D ●●●○○

3 Bryce Harper — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 26.2% · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Mize Edge — 0.318 · 93.5 · 11.1% 23.1% 26.2% F B O C+ 63

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Sánchez Edge — 0.196 · 90.1 · 11.5% 27.3% 19.4% F B O C 50

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Mize Edge — 0.240 · 90.2 · 8.6% 15.4% 19.6% F B O C 50

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.275 · 90.0 · 10.4% 0.0% 16.6% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· DET Riley Greene vs Sánchez — 0.179 · 91.5 · 11.2% 27.3% 15.2% F B O D 47

· DET Hao-Yu Lee COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.137 · 87.4 · 8.3% 28.6% 13.3% F B O D 40

· PHI Trea Turner vs Mize — 0.120 · 88.6 · 6.3% 25.0% 11.8% F B O D 35

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs Mize Edge — 0.190 · 89.9 · 7.7% 16.7% 16.9% F B O D 43

· PHI Alec Bohm HOT vs Mize — 0.142 · 90.0 · 5.6% 16.7% 9.9% F B O D 35

· PHI Derek Hill COOL vs Mize — 0.168 · 89.7 · 8.1% 0.0% 18.0% F B O D 38

· DET Matt Vierling COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.134 · 87.5 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 33

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Sánchez — 0.129 · 88.1 · 8.5% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 32

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Mize Edge — 0.145 · 89.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 34

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Sánchez — 0.101 · 84.4 · 4.6% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.9% BRK 29.2% OFF 24.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

19.7% 17.2% 28.0% 19.9% C+ 63 —

Bryce Harper L Edge

9.2% 16.7% 9.3% 11.7% C 50 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

134

Brandon Marsh L Edge

8.6% 15.3% 2.8% 9.7% D 43 —

186

Derek Hill R

12.2% 12.0% 7.1% 11.2% D 38 —

205

Trea Turner R

8.5% 4.3% 0.0% 6.4% D 35 —

206

Alec Bohm R

4.9% 5.6% 6.7% 5.2% D 35 —

210

Bryson Stott L Edge

7.6% 5.6% 6.2% 6.8% D 34 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Mize's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.6% ← leak OFF 38.6% BRK 18.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Dillon Dingler R Edge

13.1% 6.2% 12.1% 12.0% C 53 —

Spencer Torkelson R Edge

16.9% 21.1% 9.3% 15.3% C 50 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Riley Greene L

16.3% 6.4% 14.5% 14.0% D 47 —

165

Hao-Yu Lee R Edge

12.7% 7.7% 0.0% 7.5% D 40 —

215

Matt Vierling R Edge

7.5% 0.0% 2.9% 5.0% D 33 —

220

Kevin Mcgonigle L

9.5% 2.1% 8.5% 8.1% D 32 —

255

Zach Mckinstry L

3.6% 0.0% 2.2% 2.8% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.6% usage) carries Sánchez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Marsh Turner Bohm Torkelson Greene Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Sánchez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kyle Schwarber — · 63

Spencer Torkelson — · 50

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 6 mph in 86°F open

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9 mph · in

81°F

6:10p · peak

-8

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9 mph · in

81°F

7:10p

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9 mph · in

81°F

8:10p

-8

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9 mph · in

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81°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.13× 86°F, wind 6 mph E (in) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Casey Mize · RHP 0.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.85 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 63 C+ — COOL 12 0.318 93.5 11.1% 46.7%vs RHP 404 26.4% 23.1% 26.2% 26

2 Bryce Harper 50 C — COOL 78 0.240 90.2 8.6% 40.5%vs RHP 400 20.0% 15.4% 19.6% 30

3 Brandon Marsh 43 D — WARM 134 0.190 89.9 7.7% 25.5%vs RHP 392 14.0% 16.7% 16.9% 33

4 Derek Hill 38 D — COOL 186 0.168 89.7 8.1% 20.0%vs RHP 408 4.8% 0.0% 18.0% 12

5 Trea Turner 35 D — · 205 0.120 88.6 6.3% 16.7%vs RHP 393 11.4% 25.0% 11.8% 41

6 Alec Bohm 35 D — HOT 206 0.142 90.0 5.6% 20.6%vs RHP 394 11.5% 16.7% 9.9% 37

7 Bryson Stott 34 D — · 210 0.145 89.2 6.7% 9.2%vs RHP 393 8.2% 0.0% 6.2% 40

vs Cristopher Sánchez · LHP 0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 53 C — COOL 56 0.275 90.0 10.4% 22.7%vs LHP 397 19.8% 0.0% 16.6% 32

2 Spencer Torkelson 50 C — WARM 79 0.196 90.1 11.5% 11.8%vs LHP 391 16.5% 27.3% 19.4% 29

3 Riley Greene 47 D — WARM 98 0.179 91.5 11.2% 12.5%vs LHP 399 12.0% 27.3% 15.2% 32

4 Hao-Yu Lee 40 D — COOL 165 0.137 87.4 8.3% 10.5%vs LHP 379 25.0% 28.6% 13.3% 24

5 Matt Vierling 33 D — COOL 215 0.134 87.5 6.9% 9.5%vs LHP 377 8.2% 0.0% 7.6% 27

6 Kevin Mcgonigle 32 D — · 220 0.129 88.1 8.5% 8.7%vs LHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 38

7 Zach Mckinstry 25 D — WARM 255 0.101 84.4 4.6% 6.6% 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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