TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ TEX

Suppressed air · 0.97×

HOU @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 7:05p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.88× Wind 4 mph slight_out 79°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+6 ↑

6:05p

+5 ↑

7:05p

+6 ↑

8:05p

+8 ↑

9:05p

+9 ↑

10:05p

conditions build late — the 10:05p window peaks +9

Best of game Yainer Diaz conv 23 · vs Rocker ⟷ Wyatt Langford conv 33 · vs Lambert → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Kumar Rocker RHP · TEX

leak 90

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Yainer Diaz +750 D ●●●●○

2 Christian Walker +425 C ●●●○○

3 Cam Smith +625 D ●●○○○

FADE Peter Lambert RHP · HOU

leak 16

1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Wyatt Langford +305 D ●●●●●

2 Joc Pederson +390 C ●●●●●

3 Jake Burger +370 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 37.5% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Lambert Edge +390 0.223 · 91.9 · 8.6% 37.5% 21.5% F B O C 52

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Rocker +425 0.236 · 89.6 · 8.8% 16.7% 19.1% F B O C 51

· HOU Yordan Alvarez vs Rocker Edge +245 0.300 · 94.6 · 11.8% 0.0% 27.7% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Lambert +305 0.206 · 88.8 · 7.3% 50.0% 15.5% F B O D 45

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Rocker +750 0.150 · 87.6 · 6.3% 33.3% 13.0% F B O D 38

· HOU Cam Smith vs Rocker +625 0.152 · 89.5 · 9.4% 18.2% 13.3% F B O D 42

· TEX Jake Burger vs Lambert +370 0.185 · 90.3 · 8.3% 18.2% 11.6% F B O D 45

· HOU Brice Matthews COOL vs Rocker — 0.134 · 87.2 · 8.1% 20.0% 8.9% F B O D 37

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Lambert +750 0.150 · 88.7 · 6.3% 18.2% 9.7% F B O D 38

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs Rocker +525 0.164 · 86.9 · 6.8% 16.7% 9.0% F B O D 38

· TEX Brandon Nimmo vs Lambert Edge +390 0.164 · 92.5 · 9.4% 12.5% 8.8% F B O D 42

· TEX Josh Jung vs Lambert +500 0.150 · 90.6 · 6.4% 11.1% 8.5% F B O D 37

· TEX Alejandro Osuna vs Lambert Edge — 0.041 · 87.2 · 2.2% 10.0% 5.6% F B O D 23

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Rocker +700 0.162 · 85.4 · 6.9% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 33

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Lambert Edge +625 0.141 · 87.4 · 7.0% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 36

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Rocker +700 0.148 · 87.2 · 5.5% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 33

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Rocker — 0.105 · 86.1 · 3.2% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.6% ← leak BRK 37.7% OFF 5.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

18.0% 23.8% 11.3% 18.4% C 55 +245

Christian Walker R

9.2% 11.8% 14.8% 10.6% C 51 +425

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

125

Cam Smith R

9.4% 16.0% 20.0% 12.0% D 42 +625

161

Isaac Paredes R

7.4% 4.5% 2.7% 6.0% D 38 +525

164

Yainer Diaz R

10.8% 2.0% 0.0% 5.9% D 38 +750

165

Brice Matthews R

14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% D 37 —

188

Jose Altuve R

6.7% 6.8% 0.0% 6.2% D 33 +700

189

Jeremy Peña R

2.3% 4.2% 14.3% 4.0% D 33 +700

226

Christian Vazquez R

3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.6% usage) carries Rocker's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.1% ← leak BRK 26.0% OFF 22.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Joc Pederson L Edge

15.6% 9.6% 4.8% 11.4% C 52 +390

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

103

Wyatt Langford R

6.2% 12.5% 8.3% 8.3% D 45 +305

104

Jake Burger R

7.3% 12.2% 11.5% 9.6% D 45 +370

127

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

10.4% 18.3% 15.8% 13.3% D 42 +390

159

Ezequiel Duran R

7.8% 5.3% 0.0% 5.9% D 38 +750

166

Josh Jung R

7.8% 3.4% 0.0% 5.6% D 37 +500

170

Evan Carter L Edge

9.3% 5.7% 0.0% 6.9% D 36 +625

231

Alejandro Osuna L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.7% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.1% usage) carries Lambert's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Walker Smith Diaz Matthews Pederson Langford Burger Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Rocker fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Joc Pederson +390 · 52

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 6:05p · roof retractable

Park 0.88× Wind 4 mph slight_out 79°F retractable

↑

12 mph · slight_out

93°F

6:05p

↑

14 mph · slight_out

91°F

7:05p

↑

13 mph · slight_out

88°F

8:05p

↑

13 mph · out

84°F

9:05p

↑

13 mph · out

81°F

10:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.97× 79°F, wind 4 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Kumar Rocker · RHP 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 55 C +245 WARM 34 0.300 94.6 11.8% 25.9%vs RHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 27.7% 31

2 Christian Walker 51 C +425 COOL 56 0.236 89.6 8.8% 28.8%vs RHP 388 19.8% 16.7% 19.1% 29

3 Cam Smith 42 D +625 · 125 0.152 89.5 9.4% 19.1%vs RHP 415 11.5% 18.2% 13.3% 33

4 Isaac Paredes 38 D +525 · 161 0.164 86.9 6.8% 18.8%vs RHP 373 11.1% 16.7% 9.0% 38

5 Yainer Diaz 38 D +750 WARM 164 0.150 87.6 6.3% 21.7%vs RHP 387 10.2% 33.3% 13.0% 25

6 Brice Matthews 37 D — COOL 165 0.134 87.2 8.1% 15.0%vs RHP 403 11.1% 20.0% 8.9% 15

7 Jose Altuve 33 D +700 COOL 188 0.162 85.4 6.9% 26.5%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 31

8 Jeremy Peña 33 D +700 WARM 189 0.148 87.2 5.5% 16.1%vs RHP 388 7.9% 0.0% 9.3% 5

9 Christian Vazquez 25 D — WARM 226 0.105 86.1 3.2% 11.1%vs RHP 373 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 10

vs Peter Lambert · RHP 1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 52 C +390 · 50 0.223 91.9 8.6% 28.0%vs RHP 392 20.3% 37.5% 21.5% 16

2 Wyatt Langford 45 D +305 WARM 103 0.206 88.8 7.3% 20.7%vs RHP 400 16.7% 50.0% 15.5% 2

3 Jake Burger 45 D +370 · 104 0.185 90.3 8.3% 24.5%vs RHP 399 15.5% 18.2% 11.6% 29

4 Brandon Nimmo 42 D +390 WARM 127 0.164 92.5 9.4% 13.3%vs RHP 409 9.6% 12.5% 8.8% 18

5 Ezequiel Duran 38 D +750 WARM 159 0.150 88.7 6.3% 16.7%vs RHP 388 11.8% 18.2% 9.7% 36

6 Josh Jung 37 D +500 WARM 166 0.150 90.6 6.4% 15.9%vs RHP 386 10.8% 11.1% 8.5% 24

7 Evan Carter 36 D +625 COOL 170 0.141 87.4 7.0% 14.3%vs RHP 377 9.4% 0.0% 10.7% 13

8 Alejandro Osuna 23 D — WARM 231 0.041 87.2 2.2% 6.2%vs RHP 364 2.9% 10.0% 5.6% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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