TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ SF

Suppressed air · 0.72×

COL @ SF

Oracle Park · 4:05p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.80× Wind 6 mph out 62°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

1:05p

-4 ↑

2:05p

-4 ↑

3:05p

-4 ↑

4:05p

-4 ↑

5:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · -4 FIT

Best of game Hunter Goodman conv 27 · vs Mahle ⟷ Rafael Devers conv 27 · vs Freeland → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Tyler Mahle RHP · SF

leak 96

1.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.63 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hunter Goodman — C+ ●●●●○

2 Mickey Moniak — C ●●●●○

3 Kyle Karros — D ●●●●○

FADE Kyle Freeland LHP · COL

leak 26

1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.67 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rafael Devers — C ●●●●○

2 Heliot Ramos — C ●●●●○

3 Bryce Eldridge — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 16.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers vs Freeland — 0.225 · 91.9 · 11.5% 38.5% 16.1% F B O C 56

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ vs Mahle — 0.292 · 91.1 · 11.2% 23.1% 30.6% F B O C+ 61

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Mahle Edge — 0.302 · 89.7 · 10.0% 28.6% 23.2% F B O C 56

· SF Heliot Ramos vs Freeland Edge — 0.204 · 92.2 · 13.4% 25.0% 21.2% F B O C 53

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Freeland — 0.203 · 92.3 · 12.3% 25.0% 13.7% F B O C 51

· SF Casey Schmitt vs Freeland Edge — 0.215 · 89.8 · 11.9% 16.7% 10.9% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· COL Kyle Karros vs Mahle — 0.176 · 89.7 · 8.0% 28.6% 18.9% F B O D 44

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Mahle — 0.143 · 87.2 · 7.3% 16.7% 8.4% F B O D 37

· COL Edouard Julien COOL vs Mahle Edge — 0.110 · 91.5 · 7.2% 11.1% 8.6% F B O D 36

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Freeland Edge — 0.199 · 88.4 · 10.2% 7.7% 10.2% F B O D 46

· SF Jesus Rodriguez vs Freeland — 0.214 · 87.4 · 5.8% 0.0% 15.8% F B O D 37

· SF Drew Gilbert COOL vs Freeland — 0.134 · 85.3 · 4.9% 10.0% 5.5% F B O D 32

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Mahle Edge — 0.203 · 85.1 · 6.6% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 39

· COL Brett Sullivan vs Mahle Edge — 0.200 · 87.2 · 4.8% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 36

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Mahle Edge — 0.185 · 84.0 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 34

· COL Troy Johnston vs Mahle Edge — 0.139 · 89.5 · 4.2% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 29

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Freeland — 0.138 · 87.1 · 5.2% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 31

· SF Luis Arraez vs Freeland — 0.132 · 87.0 · 2.6% 0.0% 5.0% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 62.0% ← leak OFF 25.5% BRK 11.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Hunter Goodman R

17.8% 8.0% 17.3% 16.5% C+ 61 —

Mickey Moniak L Edge

9.8% 2.9% 26.5% 12.0% C 56 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

126

Kyle Karros R

7.8% 15.8% 5.4% 7.9% D 44 —

166

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

5.9% 12.5% 1.8% 5.6% D 39 —

193

Ezequiel Tovar R

7.9% 4.5% 9.4% 8.1% D 37 —

197

Brett Sullivan L Edge

4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% D 36 —

198

Edouard Julien L Edge

5.8% 6.7% 11.8% 7.3% D 36 —

207

Tj Rumfield L Edge

6.5% 6.2% 2.4% 5.3% D 34 —

243

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.9% 0.0% 4.1% 2.6% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.0% usage) carries Mahle's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.0% ← leak BRK 33.1% OFF 14.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Rafael Devers L

14.4% 9.0% 10.0% 12.1% C 56 —

Heliot Ramos R Edge

15.0% 16.4% 14.3% 15.4% C 53 —

Casey Schmitt R Edge

9.4% 16.5% 18.2% 12.1% C 51 —

Bryce Eldridge L

14.1% 6.9% 19.0% 13.3% C 51 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

104

Willy Adames R Edge

8.1% 9.5% 15.0% 9.0% D 46 —

192

Jesus Rodriguez

8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% D 37 —

224

Drew Gilbert L

2.2% 2.6% 0.0% 1.9% D 32 —

234

Jung Hoo Lee L

3.6% 2.2% 0.0% 2.7% D 31 —

251

Luis Arraez L

0.4% 0.0% 2.2% 0.6% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.0% usage) carries Freeland's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Moniak Karros Devers Ramos Schmitt Eldridge

Legend

attack side — vs Mahle fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Hunter Goodman — · 61

Mickey Moniak — · 56

Heliot Ramos — · 53

Kyle Karros — · 44

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 0.80× Wind 6 mph out 62°F open

-4

↑

5 mph · slight_out

63°F

1:05p · peak

-4

↑

5 mph · slight_out

63°F

2:05p

-4

↑

5 mph · slight_out

63°F

3:05p

-4

↑

5 mph · slight_out

63°F

4:05p

-4

↑

5 mph · slight_out

63°F

5:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.72× 62°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tyler Mahle · RHP 1.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.63 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 61 C+ — · 20 0.292 91.1 11.2% 40.4%vs RHP 409 25.3% 23.1% 30.6% 28

2 Mickey Moniak 56 C — · 36 0.302 89.7 10.0% 25.0%vs RHP 418 17.2% 28.6% 23.2% 31

3 Kyle Karros 44 D — WARM 126 0.176 89.7 8.0% 24.1%vs RHP 414 11.0% 28.6% 18.9% 36

4 Jake Mccarthy 39 D — COOL 166 0.203 85.1 6.6% 17.1%vs RHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 46

5 Ezequiel Tovar 37 D — COOL 193 0.143 87.2 7.3% 16.7%vs RHP 410 8.2% 16.7% 8.4% 40

6 Brett Sullivan 36 D — WARM 197 0.200 87.2 4.8% 18.5%vs RHP 396 7.7% 0.0% 10.4% 14

7 Edouard Julien 36 D — COOL 198 0.110 91.5 7.2% 13.8%vs RHP 400 4.0% 11.1% 8.6% 15

8 Tj Rumfield 34 D — COOL 207 0.185 84.0 6.4% 19.4%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 42

9 Troy Johnston 29 D — WARM 243 0.139 89.5 4.2% 8.3%vs RHP 415 1.4% 0.0% 6.2% 21

vs Kyle Freeland · LHP 1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.67 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 56 C — WARM 37 0.225 91.9 11.5% 10.7%vs LHP 408 17.5% 38.5% 16.1% 39

2 Heliot Ramos 53 C — WARM 55 0.204 92.2 13.4% 28.6%vs LHP 404 12.3% 25.0% 21.2% 36

3 Casey Schmitt 51 C — WARM 72 0.215 89.8 11.9% 11.5%vs LHP 395 16.9% 16.7% 10.9% 40

4 Bryce Eldridge 51 C — WARM 73 0.203 92.3 12.3% 20.0%vs LHP 398 21.4% 25.0% 13.7% 29

5 Willy Adames 46 D — COOL 104 0.199 88.4 10.2% 12.5%vs LHP 390 14.4% 7.7% 10.2% 20

6 Jesus Rodriguez 37 D — · 192 0.214 87.4 5.8% 30.0% 361 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% 0

7 Drew Gilbert 32 D — COOL 224 0.134 85.3 4.9% 8.9% 398 4.2% 10.0% 5.5% 21

8 Jung Hoo Lee 31 D — COOL 234 0.138 87.1 5.2% 11.8%vs LHP 378 4.8% 0.0% 6.0% 41

9 Luis Arraez 27 D — WARM 251 0.132 87.0 2.6% 4.3%vs LHP 367 3.3% 0.0% 5.0% 51

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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