TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.84×

ATL @ STL

Busch Stadium · 7:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.84× Wind 3 mph in 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:15p

+0 ↑

7:15p

-1 ↑

8:15p

-2 ↑

9:15p

-3 ↑

10:15p

best window is early — 6:15p at +1

Best of game Matt Olson conv 25 · vs Liberatore ⟷ Jordan Walker conv 33 · vs López → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Matthew Liberatore LHP · STL

leak 98

1.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.70 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +390 C+ ●●●●○

2 Ozzie Albies +500 D ●●○○○

3 Drake Baldwin +475 C ●●○○○

FADE Reynaldo López RHP · ATL

leak 89

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jordan Walker +370 C ●●●●●

2 Nathan Church +850 D ●●●○○

3 Alec Burleson +425 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 27.7% · 14D pace 23.1% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· STL Jordan Walker vs López +370 0.248 · 94.3 · 9.9% 38.5% 28.2% F B O C 58

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Liberatore +390 0.285 · 92.9 · 11.7% 23.1% 27.7% F B O C+ 62

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Liberatore +475 0.190 · 91.4 · 12.1% 7.7% 16.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· STL Nathan Church vs López Edge +850 0.151 · 85.9 · 7.5% 25.0% 13.8% F B O D 39

· STL Alec Burleson vs López Edge +425 0.197 · 91.6 · 8.6% 16.7% 12.5% F B O D 46

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Liberatore Edge +500 0.172 · 87.1 · 6.3% 15.4% 9.4% F B O D 40

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Liberatore — 0.154 · 90.3 · 7.6% 10.0% 11.9% F B O D 39

· STL José Fermín COOL vs López +850 0.132 · 85.0 · 3.9% 10.0% 7.1% F B O D 30

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs Liberatore Edge +500 0.145 · 90.2 · 10.0% 7.7% 7.8% F B O D 40

· STL Masyn Winn vs López +850 0.090 · 87.8 · 4.6% 7.7% 6.9% F B O D 27

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs López +575 0.153 · 89.3 · 6.3% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 32

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Liberatore Edge +850 0.147 · 86.3 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 32

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs López Edge +575 0.141 · 90.0 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 33

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Liberatore — 0.123 · 87.7 · 7.7% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.0% BRK 39.4% OFF 15.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Matt Olson L

17.2% 10.1% 12.5% 14.6% C+ 62 +390

Drake Baldwin L

16.8% 21.7% 0.0% 15.4% C 50 +475

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

140

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.2% 1.2% 3.4% 4.1% D 40 +500

142

Austin Riley R Edge

12.8% 12.7% 3.4% 11.6% D 40 +500

148

Mike Yastrzemski L

4.2% 4.8% 10.3% 5.4% D 39 —

183

Dominic Smith L

6.6% 6.7% 3.1% 6.0% D 34 —

197

Mauricio Dubon R Edge

3.9% 6.0% 4.3% 4.6% D 32 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Liberatore's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.5% BRK 42.0% OFF 3.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R

14.9% 14.1% 16.1% 14.8% C 58 +370

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.0% 12.1% 8.1% 10.7% D 46 +425

146

Nathan Church L Edge

9.9% 6.6% 7.3% 8.2% D 39 +850

187

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

11.0% 4.1% 2.6% 8.1% D 33 +575

196

Ivan Herrera R

6.0% 7.0% 8.8% 6.7% D 32 +575

211

José Fermín R

2.4% 3.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 30 +850

223

Masyn Winn R

3.8% 2.4% 3.4% 3.2% D 27 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads López's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Walker Burleson Church

Legend

attack side — vs Liberatore fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jordan Walker +370 · 58

Matt Olson +390 · 62

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 6:15p · roof open

Park 0.84× Wind 3 mph in 71°F open

↑

11 mph · slight_out

77°F

6:15p · peak

↑

10 mph · slight_out

76°F

7:15p

-1

↑

9 mph · slight_out

73°F

8:15p

-2

↑

8 mph · slight_out

70°F

9:15p

-3

↑

7 mph · slight_out

68°F

10:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.84× 71°F, wind 3 mph WSW (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Matthew Liberatore · LHP 1.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.70 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 62 C+ +390 WARM 11 0.285 92.9 11.7% 20.4%vs LHP 408 21.5% 23.1% 27.7% 34

2 Drake Baldwin 50 C +475 COOL 64 0.190 91.4 12.1% 46.7%vs LHP 406 18.1% 7.7% 16.2% 38

3 Ozzie Albies 40 D +500 WARM 140 0.172 87.1 6.3% 14.3%vs LHP 383 12.9% 15.4% 9.4% 39

4 Austin Riley 40 D +500 COOL 142 0.145 90.2 10.0% 15.8%vs LHP 404 7.6% 7.7% 7.8% 28

5 Mike Yastrzemski 39 D — WARM 148 0.154 90.3 7.6% 0.0%vs LHP 387 8.2% 10.0% 11.9% 25

6 Dominic Smith 34 D — COOL 183 0.123 87.7 7.7% 0.0%vs LHP 390 6.9% 0.0% 6.3% 23

7 Mauricio Dubon 32 D +850 COOL 197 0.147 86.3 6.7% 13.8%vs LHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 40

vs Reynaldo López · RHP 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 58 C +370 WARM 23 0.248 94.3 9.9% 34.7%vs RHP 406 21.0% 38.5% 28.2% 29

2 Alec Burleson 46 D +425 WARM 94 0.197 91.6 8.6% 22.4%vs RHP 407 17.0% 16.7% 12.5% 35

3 Nathan Church 39 D +850 · 146 0.151 85.9 7.5% 21.4%vs RHP 388 10.0% 25.0% 13.8% 35

4 Jj Wetherholt 33 D +575 · 187 0.141 90.0 6.9% 17.5%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 40

5 Ivan Herrera 32 D +575 COOL 196 0.153 89.3 6.3% 20.0%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 37

6 José Fermín 30 D +850 COOL 211 0.132 85.0 3.9% 13.3%vs RHP 384 6.5% 10.0% 7.1% 32

7 Masyn Winn 27 D +850 WARM 223 0.090 87.8 4.6% 12.1%vs RHP 390 4.6% 7.7% 6.9% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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