TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.20×

AZ @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 9:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.20× Wind 2 mph slight_out 66°F Roof open

Hourly window

+14 ↑

6:10p

+15 ↑

7:10p

+15 ↑

8:10p

+13 ↑

9:10p

+11 ↑

10:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +15

Best of game Shohei Ohtani conv 37 · vs Pfaadt ⟷ Ketel Marte conv 29 · vs Yamamoto → edge: Shohei Ohtani

ATTACK Brandon Pfaadt RHP · AZ

leak 99

1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.70 · leakiest side of this game

1 Shohei Ohtani +205 B ●●●●●

2 Freddie Freeman +370 C+ ●●●○○

3 Max Muncy +305 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP · LAD

leak 87

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ketel Marte +370 C ●●●●●

2 Nolan Arenado +525 D ●●●●○

3 Corbin Carroll +390 C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shohei Ohtani: 16.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Shohei Ohtani ✶ COOL vs Pfaadt Edge +205 0.243 · 93.5 · 13.2% 30.8% 44.2% F B O B 74

· AZ Ketel Marte vs Yamamoto Edge +370 0.211 · 91.4 · 8.4% 30.8% 27.8% F B O C 59

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Pfaadt Edge +370 0.200 · 90.5 · 10.8% 15.4% 19.9% F B O C+ 62

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Pfaadt Edge +305 0.232 · 90.4 · 12.2% 6.7% 24.7% F B O C+ 66

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Pfaadt +390 0.193 · 89.1 · 9.5% 15.4% 14.0% F B O C 58

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Pfaadt +400 0.183 · 90.8 · 9.5% 7.7% 12.6% F B O C 55

· AZ Corbin Carroll COOL vs Yamamoto Edge +390 0.229 · 91.3 · 8.5% 0.0% 19.4% F B O C 55

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Pfaadt +400 0.172 · 90.1 · 10.4% 0.0% 12.2% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Yamamoto +525 0.171 · 85.2 · 6.5% 25.0% 22.1% F B O D 49

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Pfaadt Edge +500 0.128 · 88.9 · 7.5% 8.3% 11.8% F B O D 47

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs Yamamoto Edge +950 0.115 · 87.2 · 4.6% 7.7% 9.5% F B O D 38

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Yamamoto +700 0.164 · 89.2 · 6.9% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 45

· LAD Alex Freeland COOL vs Pfaadt Edge — 0.095 · 88.7 · 7.5% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 44

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.150 · 87.1 · 4.9% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.6% ← leak OFF 26.7% BRK 20.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ketel Marte S Edge

15.6% 4.3% 7.9% 11.2% C 59 +370

Corbin Carroll L Edge

11.3% 6.2% 14.3% 11.2% C 55 +390

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Nolan Arenado R

9.4% 0.0% 1.3% 5.8% D 49 +525

100

Gabriel Moreno R

7.2% 12.0% 9.3% 8.4% D 45 +700

138

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.9% 1.9% 1.8% 3.6% D 40 —

160

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.2% 3.1% 0.0% 3.2% D 38 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.6% usage) carries Yamamoto's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.7% ← leak BRK 32.6% OFF 10.2% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

21.3% 11.0% 13.6% 16.8% B 74 +205

Neutral · 5

Max Muncy L Edge

18.7% 13.7% 7.4% 14.6% C+ 66 +305

Freddie Freeman L Edge

10.7% 10.4% 10.9% 10.6% C+ 62 +370

Andy Pages R

8.0% 9.2% 6.9% 8.2% C 58 +390

Mookie Betts R

10.9% 3.9% 7.4% 8.7% C 55 +400

Teoscar Hernandez R

10.3% 15.2% 9.1% 11.2% C 51 +400

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Kyle Tucker L Edge

6.8% 4.0% 1.8% 5.1% D 47 +500

108

Alex Freeland S Edge

6.0% 10.3% 3.8% 6.5% D 44 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.7% usage) carries Pfaadt's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Marte Arenado Ohtani Muncy Freeman Pages

Legend

attack side — vs Pfaadt fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Shohei Ohtani +205 · 74

Ketel Marte +370 · 59

Nolan Arenado +525 · 49

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 1.20× Wind 2 mph slight_out 66°F open

+14

↑

8 mph · out

82°F

6:10p

+15

↑

9 mph · out

80°F

7:10p · peak

+15

↑

10 mph · out

78°F

8:10p

+13

↑

8 mph · out

75°F

9:10p

+11

↑

6 mph · out

72°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.20× 66°F, wind 2 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · RHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ketel Marte 59 C +370 WARM 20 0.211 91.4 8.4% 14.9%vs RHP 413 15.8% 30.8% 27.8% 42

2 Corbin Carroll 55 C +390 COOL 38 0.229 91.3 8.5% 21.7%vs RHP 406 13.5% 0.0% 19.4% 26

3 Nolan Arenado 49 D +525 · 69 0.171 85.2 6.5% 17.4%vs RHP 395 11.6% 25.0% 22.1% 27

4 Gabriel Moreno 45 D +700 COOL 100 0.164 89.2 6.9% 16.2%vs RHP 395 8.2% 0.0% 12.4% 36

5 Ildemaro Vargas 40 D — COOL 138 0.150 87.1 4.9% 10.3%vs RHP 399 5.8% 0.0% 10.9% 21

6 Geraldo Perdomo 38 D +950 · 160 0.115 87.2 4.6% 9.8%vs RHP 386 6.3% 7.7% 9.5% 38

vs Brandon Pfaadt · RHP 1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.70 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 74 B +205 COOL 1 0.243 93.5 13.2% 25.0%vs RHP 405 20.2% 30.8% 44.2% 34

2 Max Muncy 66 C+ +305 COOL 6 0.232 90.4 12.2% 23.9%vs RHP 409 18.0% 6.7% 24.7% 41

3 Freddie Freeman 62 C+ +370 COOL 12 0.200 90.5 10.8% 18.0%vs RHP 398 14.4% 15.4% 19.9% 42

4 Andy Pages 58 C +390 COOL 26 0.193 89.1 9.5% 22.2%vs RHP 389 15.4% 15.4% 14.0% 34

5 Mookie Betts 55 C +400 WARM 39 0.183 90.8 9.5% 18.0%vs RHP 385 11.5% 7.7% 12.6% 40

6 Teoscar Hernandez 51 C +400 COOL 54 0.172 90.1 10.4% 20.5%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 21

7 Kyle Tucker 47 D +500 · 88 0.128 88.9 7.5% 10.7%vs RHP 399 5.7% 8.3% 11.8% 33

8 Alex Freeland 44 D — COOL 108 0.095 88.7 7.5% 9.7%vs RHP 373 2.9% 0.0% 11.6% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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