TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.27×

NYY @ WSH

Nationals Park · 4:05p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 3 mph slight_out 88°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

4:05p

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5:05p

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6:05p

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7:05p

+12 ↑

8:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · +12 FIT

Best of game Ben Rice conv 42 · vs Poulin ⟷ James Wood conv 41 · vs Schlittler → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK PJ Poulin LHP · WSH

leak 84

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ben Rice — B ●●●●●

2 Amed Rosario — C ●●●○○

3 Trent Grisham — D ●●○○○

FADE Cam Schlittler RHP · NYY

leak 23

0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 James Wood — C+ ●●●●●

2 Curtis Mead — C ●●○○○

3 Cj Abrams — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 37.6% · 14D pace 46.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Poulin — 0.316 · 92.0 · 12.5% 46.2% 37.6% F B O B 74

· WSH James Wood vs Schlittler Edge — 0.267 · 95.1 · 13.2% 50.0% 31.3% F B O C+ 67

· NYY Amed Rosario COOL vs Poulin Edge — 0.213 · 90.2 · 10.9% 14.3% 22.4% F B O C 53

· WSH Curtis Mead COOL vs Schlittler — 0.239 · 88.1 · 9.3% 10.0% 18.9% F B O C 51

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Poulin Edge — 0.226 · 86.8 · 11.0% 0.0% 16.9% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Schlittler Edge — 0.233 · 89.8 · 8.8% 0.0% 27.7% F B O D 46

· NYY Trent Grisham COOL vs Poulin — 0.177 · 91.0 · 10.7% 14.3% 11.6% F B O D 49

· WSH Daylen Lile HOT vs Schlittler Edge — 0.162 · 87.9 · 7.5% 10.0% 10.8% F B O D 39

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Schlittler — 0.140 · 90.8 · 8.2% 9.1% 9.2% F B O D 40

· NYY Jasson Dominguez vs Poulin Edge — 0.192 · 89.1 · 6.7% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 41

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Poulin — 0.161 · 88.9 · 8.5% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 44

· NYY Anthony Volpe COOL vs Poulin Edge — 0.084 · 88.1 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 35

· WSH Jorbit Vivas COOL vs Schlittler Edge — 0.101 · 83.5 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 30

· WSH Drew Millas COOL vs Schlittler Edge — 0.074 · 83.4 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 29

· NYY Ali Sanchez COOL vs Poulin Edge — 0.097 · 83.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 37

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Schlittler Edge — 0.049 · 84.9 · 2.0% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 19

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.1% BRK 35.0% OFF 12.9% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Ben Rice L

18.2% 9.6% 12.8% 14.8% B 74 —

Neutral · 2

Paul Goldschmidt R Edge

14.9% 6.2% 10.7% 11.9% C 54 —

Amed Rosario R Edge

8.7% 11.5% 10.7% 9.8% C 53 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Trent Grisham L

11.5% 11.4% 6.1% 10.6% D 49 —

115

Cody Bellinger L

3.4% 13.3% 9.3% 6.6% D 44 —

146

Jasson Dominguez S Edge

1.8% 13.3% 6.7% 4.9% D 41 —

188

Ali Sanchez R Edge

5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% D 37 —

200

Anthony Volpe R Edge

5.8% 0.0% 10.0% 4.1% D 35 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Poulin's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 91.1% ← leak BRK 8.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

James Wood L Edge

22.3% 25.7% 22.5% C+ 67 —

Curtis Mead R

13.0% 10.2% 10.8% C 51 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Cj Abrams L Edge

11.5% 7.4% 9.7% D 46 —

153

Dylan Crews R

6.5% 21.7% 8.5% D 40 —

167

Daylen Lile L Edge

7.1% 10.8% 7.5% D 39 —

237

Jorbit Vivas L Edge

3.4% 4.9% 3.9% D 30 —

240

Drew Millas S Edge

3.4% 0.0% 3.0% D 29 —

265

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.8% 0.0% 0.5% D 19 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (91.1% usage) carries Schlittler's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Rosario Wood Mead Abrams

Legend

attack side — vs Poulin fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Ben Rice — · 74

James Wood — · 67

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 4:05p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 3 mph slight_out 88°F open

+12

↑

9 mph · out

81°F

4:05p · peak

+12

↑

9 mph · out

81°F

5:05p

+12

↑

9 mph · out

81°F

6:05p

+12

↑

9 mph · out

81°F

7:05p

+12

↑

9 mph · out

81°F

8:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.27× 88°F, wind 3 mph N (slight_out) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs PJ Poulin · LHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 74 B — WARM 1 0.316 92.0 12.5% 43.8%vs LHP 389 28.2% 46.2% 37.6% 36

2 Paul Goldschmidt 54 C — COOL 42 0.226 86.8 11.0% 34.8%vs LHP 391 17.0% 0.0% 16.9% 20

3 Amed Rosario 53 C — COOL 47 0.213 90.2 10.9% 17.4%vs LHP 392 12.0% 14.3% 22.4% 17

4 Trent Grisham 49 D — COOL 80 0.177 91.0 10.7% 12.5%vs LHP 388 9.0% 14.3% 11.6% 21

5 Cody Bellinger 44 D — COOL 115 0.161 88.9 8.5% 16.0%vs LHP 379 10.5% 0.0% 11.1% 34

6 Jasson Dominguez 41 D — WARM 146 0.192 89.1 6.7% 11.1%vs LHP 361 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 37

7 Ali Sanchez 37 D — COOL 188 0.097 83.2 6.7% 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 8

8 Anthony Volpe 35 D — COOL 200 0.084 88.1 6.6% 10.0%vs LHP 409 2.2% 0.0% 7.4% 21

vs Cam Schlittler · RHP 0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood 67 C+ — · 5 0.267 95.1 13.2% 36.7%vs RHP 412 28.9% 50.0% 31.3% 33

2 Curtis Mead 51 C — COOL 64 0.239 88.1 9.3% 27.3%vs RHP 400 20.8% 10.0% 18.9% 34

3 Cj Abrams 46 D — · 99 0.233 89.8 8.8% 28.8%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 27.7% 34

4 Dylan Crews 40 D — · 153 0.140 90.8 8.2% 12.5%vs RHP 413 17.1% 9.1% 9.2% 30

5 Daylen Lile 39 D — HOT 167 0.162 87.9 7.5% 12.4%vs RHP 402 8.3% 10.0% 10.8% 35

6 Jorbit Vivas 30 D — COOL 237 0.101 83.5 5.5% 10.7%vs RHP 392 4.1% 0.0% 7.4% 25

7 Drew Millas 29 D — COOL 240 0.074 83.4 5.0% 11.1%vs RHP 398 4.5% 0.0% 7.4% 10

8 Nasim Nunez 19 D — WARM 265 0.049 84.9 2.0% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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