8
HRs allowed
10.5%
HR rate (pool)
17.1%
Overall HR/FB
5.65
FIP
5.31
xFIP
+0.34
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
81
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 81th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
73.2%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.4 EV · 388 ft
max EV allowed 112.2
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 2 HR ↑
30D · 6 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against PJ Poulin.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sweeper Breaking
35.3%
80.9
22.0°
2
-0.6
Fastball Hard
29.5%
88.4
26.6°
2
+0.4
Sinker Hard
22.9%
84.7
-0.3°
0
-2.8
Changeup Offspeed
12.3%
80.3
0.3°
0
+1.4
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups76
HRs allowed (pool)8
Pool HR rate10.5%
Pool HR/game day0.89
Top-15 matchups6
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB17.1% 81
HR/9—
FIP5.65 90
xFIP5.31
FIP − xFIP+0.34 67
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed73.2%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Sweeper
Breaking · 35.3% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.9 mph
Avg launch angle22.0°
HRs allowed2
Pitches235
Fastball
Hard · 29.5% usage
+0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against88.4 mph
Avg launch angle26.6°
HRs allowed2
Pitches196
Sinker
Hard · 22.9% usage
-2.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.7 mph
Avg launch angle-0.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches152
Changeup
Offspeed · 12.3% usage
+1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.3 mph
Avg launch angle0.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches82
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against PJ Poulin.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
8 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.4 EV · 388 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 9 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-11
8
2
106.9
2026-06-23
7
2
106.8
2026-06-19
9
2
112.2
2026-06-14
7
0
109.9
2026-05-27
9
0
102.6
2026-05-25
9
1
107.1
2026-04-24
9
0
108.7
2026-04-19
9
0
109.2
2026-03-31
9
1
104.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — PJ Poulin isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.