TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ NYM

Suppressed air · 0.89×

BOS @ NYM

Citi Field · 4:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 9 mph in 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

4:10p

-5 ↑

5:10p

-4 ↑

6:10p

-3 ↑

7:10p

-3 ↑

8:10p

conditions build late — the 7:10p window peaks -3

Best of game Caleb Durbin conv 20 · vs Peralta ⟷ Juan Soto conv 29 · vs Proxy → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Freddy Peralta RHP · NYM

leak 93

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · leakiest side of this game

1 Caleb Durbin +750 D ●●●○○

2 Jarren Duran +390 D ●●○○○

3 Masataka Yoshida +850 D ●●○○○

FADE BOS Bullpen Proxy · BOS

leak 55

1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Juan Soto — C+ ●●●●○

2 Carson Benge — D ●●○○○

3 Luis Torrens — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: Match 27.3% · 14D pace 30.8% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Juan Soto ✶ COOL vs Proxy — 0.276 · 92.8 · 15.0% 30.8% 27.3% F B O C+ 68

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· BOS Caleb Durbin vs Peralta +750 0.164 · 84.8 · 3.9% 25.0% 15.3% F B O D 40

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Peralta Edge +390 0.156 · 89.6 · 7.5% 11.1% 15.5% F B O D 45

· BOS Masataka Yoshida HOT vs Peralta Edge +850 0.105 · 88.4 · 3.2% 14.3% 9.7% F B O D 34

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Proxy — 0.139 · 89.5 · 8.0% 15.4% 8.4% F B O D 42

· NYM Luis Torrens vs Proxy — 0.099 · 87.7 · 4.0% 14.3% 7.1% F B O D 33

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Peralta Edge +400 0.163 · 89.9 · 7.5% 8.3% 10.5% F B O D 44

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Proxy — 0.169 · — · 8.2% 0.0% 17.4% F B O D 39

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Peralta +575 0.165 · 86.2 · 5.0% 8.3% 8.2% F B O D 39

· NYM Brett Baty vs Proxy — 0.085 · 89.4 · 8.1% 7.7% 6.8% F B O D 35

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Proxy — 0.166 · 90.1 · 16.0% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 48

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Proxy — 0.122 · 90.3 · 7.1% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 37

· BOS Carlos Narvaez COOL vs Peralta +475 0.076 · 91.4 · 5.9% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.6% BRK 23.9% OFF 21.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jarren Duran L Edge

14.7% 6.2% 10.4% 11.4% D 45 +390

111

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

11.8% 13.0% 8.9% 11.6% D 44 +400

137

Caleb Durbin R

3.1% 1.7% 3.8% 2.8% D 40 +750

149

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.8% 5.4% 10.3% 5.2% D 39 +575

180

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

2.0% 0.0% 3.3% 1.9% D 34 +850

198

Carlos Narvaez R

8.1% 6.1% 0.0% 6.5% D 32 +475

Read the columns: no single family leads Peralta's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for BOS Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Duran Durbin Soto

Legend

attack side — vs Peralta fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Juan Soto — · 68

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 4:10p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 9 mph in 74°F open

-6

↑

9 mph · cross

82°F

4:10p

-5

↑

10 mph · cross

82°F

5:10p

-4

↑

10 mph · cross

80°F

6:10p

-3

↑

10 mph · cross

78°F

7:10p · peak

-3

↑

10 mph · cross

76°F

8:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.89× 74°F, wind 9 mph NE (in) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Freddy Peralta · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jarren Duran 45 D +390 WARM 98 0.156 89.6 7.5% 34.3%vs RHP 398 14.1% 11.1% 15.5% 17

2 Wilyer Abreu 44 D +400 · 111 0.163 89.9 7.5% 11.8%vs RHP 402 12.5% 8.3% 10.5% 27

3 Caleb Durbin 40 D +750 · 137 0.164 84.8 3.9% 22.2%vs RHP 373 9.5% 25.0% 15.3% 34

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 39 D +575 COOL 149 0.165 86.2 5.0% 14.3%vs RHP 372 9.2% 8.3% 8.2% 40

5 Masataka Yoshida 34 D +850 HOT 180 0.105 88.4 3.2% 5.9%vs RHP 390 5.7% 14.3% 9.7% 16

6 Carlos Narvaez 32 D +475 COOL 198 0.076 91.4 5.9% 8.3%vs RHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 14

vs BOS Bullpen Proxy 1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 68 C+ — COOL 8 0.276 92.8 15.0% 22.1% 401 21.5% 30.8% 27.3% 32

2 Francisco Alvarez 48 D — · 105 0.166 90.1 16.0% 18.4% 408 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 24

3 Carson Benge 42 D — COOL 155 0.139 89.5 8.0% 13.9% 399 10.0% 15.4% 8.4% 40

4 A.J. Ewing 39 D — WARM 174 0.169 — 8.2% 15.9% — 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 32

5 Bo Bichette 37 D — · 186 0.122 90.3 7.1% 11.8% 385 9.8% 0.0% 7.6% 43

6 Brett Baty 35 D — WARM 202 0.085 89.4 8.1% 4.9% 415 4.5% 7.7% 6.8% 33

7 Luis Torrens 33 D — WARM 213 0.099 87.7 4.0% 7.1% 394 5.9% 14.3% 7.1% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

10 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.