TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ TB

Neutral air · 1.02×

SEA @ TB

Tropicana Field · 7:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Dominic Canzone conv 30 · vs Martinez ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 47 · vs Castillo → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Nick Martinez RHP · TB

leak 44

1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.36 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dominic Canzone +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Randy Arozarena +475 D ●●●○○

3 Cole Young +700 D ●●○○○

FADE Luis Castillo RHP · SEA

leak 42

0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +265 C+ ●●●●●

2 Cedric Mullins +525 D ●●●●○

3 Ben Williamson — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 61.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Castillo +265 0.256 · 93.4 · 10.8% 61.5% 32.3% F B O C+ 68

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Martinez Edge +320 0.273 · 92.9 · 10.9% 30.0% 29.2% F B O C+ 63

· SEA Luke Raley COOL vs Martinez Edge +370 0.231 · 90.7 · 11.0% 0.0% 16.9% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Castillo Edge +525 0.131 · 88.4 · 5.8% 36.4% 14.3% F B O D 43

· SEA Randy Arozarena COOL vs Martinez +475 0.166 · 91.1 · 7.6% 25.0% 14.3% F B O D 48

· SEA Cole Young vs Martinez Edge +700 0.149 · 88.3 · 6.2% 16.7% 15.0% F B O D 43

· SEA Colt Emerson COOL vs Martinez Edge +700 0.203 · 86.4 · 6.7% 10.0% 16.1% F B O D 47

· TB Ben Williamson vs Castillo — 0.096 · 87.8 · 3.5% 16.7% 9.2% F B O D 33

· TB Nick Fortes vs Castillo — 0.083 · 86.2 · 3.9% 16.7% 8.7% F B O D 31

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Castillo Edge +400 0.169 · 90.7 · 9.2% 7.7% 11.0% F B O D 47

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Castillo Edge +850 0.088 · 86.1 · 5.5% 11.1% 7.1% F B O D 33

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Martinez Edge +290 0.150 · 88.2 · 9.3% 8.3% 8.9% F B O D 46

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Castillo +575 0.170 · 90.8 · 7.8% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 41

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Martinez Edge +575 0.138 · — · 7.1% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 37

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Martinez Edge +575 0.104 · 87.7 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 36

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Castillo Edge — 0.058 · 84.2 · — 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 19

· TB Taylor Walls vs Castillo Edge +950 0.070 · 85.3 · 5.2% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 62.6% ← leak OFF 27.5% BRK 9.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Dominic Canzone L Edge

18.3% 8.5% 19.4% 15.8% C+ 63 +320

Luke Raley L Edge

20.0% 7.4% 16.1% 16.8% C 55 +370

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Randy Arozarena R

9.2% 5.3% 7.8% 8.1% D 48 +475

Colt Emerson L Edge

7.3% 5.9% 4.2% 6.1% D 47 +700

Cal Raleigh S Edge

11.1% 12.1% 11.1% 11.3% D 46 +290

106

Cole Young L Edge

6.1% 0.0% 11.1% 6.2% D 43 +700

158

J.P. Crawford L Edge

5.3% 12.5% 8.5% 6.9% D 37 +575

168

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.4% 2.1% 8.2% 4.8% D 36 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.6% usage) carries Martinez's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.1% ← leak BRK 27.0% OFF 12.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.2% 12.4% 5.9% 13.6% C+ 68 +265

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

9.5% 13.2% 6.2% 9.7% D 47 +400

107

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.7% 0.0% 10.0% 3.8% D 43 +525

122

Yandy Diaz R

5.1% 12.6% 2.8% 7.3% D 41 +575

184

Ben Williamson R

2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% D 33 —

187

Richie Palacios L Edge

4.5% 2.5% 4.2% 3.9% D 33 +850

202

Nick Fortes R

3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 31 —

209

Taylor Walls S Edge

4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% D 29 +950

228

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 19 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.1% usage) carries Castillo's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Canzone Arozarena Emerson Young Caminero Mullins

Legend

attack side — vs Martinez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Junior Caminero +265 · 68

Dominic Canzone +320 · 63

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.02× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.02× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nick Martinez · RHP 1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.36 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 63 C+ +320 · 11 0.273 92.9 10.9% 29.5%vs RHP 399 18.3% 30.0% 29.2% 22

2 Luke Raley 55 C +370 COOL 33 0.231 90.7 11.0% 33.3%vs RHP 385 14.9% 0.0% 16.9% 16

3 Randy Arozarena 48 D +475 COOL 73 0.166 91.1 7.6% 22.9%vs RHP 393 11.0% 25.0% 14.3% 32

4 Colt Emerson 47 D +700 COOL 76 0.203 86.4 6.7% 41.7%vs RHP 369 14.3% 10.0% 16.1% 20

5 Cal Raleigh 46 D +290 WARM 86 0.150 88.2 9.3% 14.5%vs RHP 390 12.9% 8.3% 8.9% 23

6 Cole Young 43 D +700 WARM 106 0.149 88.3 6.2% 15.1%vs RHP 387 10.1% 16.7% 15.0% 30

7 J.P. Crawford 37 D +575 COOL 158 0.138 — 7.1% 26.5%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 28

8 Josh Naylor 36 D +575 COOL 168 0.104 87.7 6.0% 13.5%vs RHP 390 8.2% 0.0% 7.7% 39

vs Luis Castillo · RHP 0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 68 C+ +265 · 4 0.256 93.4 10.8% 41.2%vs RHP 407 27.3% 61.5% 32.3% 35

2 Jonathan Aranda 47 D +400 · 78 0.169 90.7 9.2% 20.6%vs RHP 391 12.8% 7.7% 11.0% 34

3 Cedric Mullins 43 D +525 WARM 107 0.131 88.4 5.8% 20.0%vs RHP 393 12.7% 36.4% 14.3% 29

4 Yandy Diaz 41 D +575 WARM 122 0.170 90.8 7.8% 25.0%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 33

5 Ben Williamson 33 D — WARM 184 0.096 87.8 3.5% 10.0%vs RHP 398 3.2% 16.7% 9.2% 16

6 Richie Palacios 33 D +850 COOL 187 0.088 86.1 5.5% 7.4%vs RHP 396 2.3% 11.1% 7.1% 23

7 Nick Fortes 31 D — WARM 202 0.083 86.2 3.9% 10.5%vs RHP 400 2.1% 16.7% 8.7% 17

8 Taylor Walls 29 D +950 WARM 209 0.070 85.3 5.2% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 27

9 Chandler Simpson 19 D — COOL 228 0.058 84.2 — 4.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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