TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ CIN

Playable air · 1.06×

CHC @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 7:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 5 mph out 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

7:10p

-1 ↑

8:10p

-1 ↑

9:10p

+0 ↑

10:10p

+0 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 10:10p window peaks +0

Best of game Seiya Suzuki conv 35 · vs Greene ⟷ Sal Stewart conv 31 · vs Imanaga → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Hunter Greene RHP

leak 99

3.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.78 · leakiest side of this game

1 Seiya Suzuki +320 C ●●●●●

2 Pete Crow-Armstrong +290 C+ ●●●●●

3 Dansby Swanson +350 C ●●●●○

FADE Shota Imanaga LHP · CHC

leak 89

1.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.70 · stingy — thin edge

1 Sal Stewart +305 C+ ●●●●●

2 Elly De La Cruz +370 C+ ●●●○○

3 Spencer Steer +390 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 10.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Seiya Suzuki vs Greene +320 0.189 · 89.4 · 10.0% 41.7% 28.1% F B O C 59

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Imanaga Edge +305 0.221 · 90.9 · 12.3% 30.8% 31.9% F B O C+ 64

· — Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ COOL vs Greene Edge +290 0.241 · 90.4 · 10.9% 25.0% 35.4% F B O C+ 65

· — Dansby Swanson vs Greene +350 0.200 · 90.0 · 9.5% 16.7% 29.0% F B O C 57

· CIN Elly De La Cruz vs Imanaga Edge +370 0.223 · 94.3 · 12.2% 15.4% 24.5% F B O C+ 62

· — Michael Busch COOL vs Greene Edge +320 0.158 · 88.3 · 10.9% 16.7% 17.4% F B O C 53

· — Ian Happ COOL vs Greene Edge +305 0.221 · 89.7 · 12.1% 8.3% 20.1% F B O C+ 61

· CIN Spencer Steer COOL vs Imanaga Edge +390 0.188 · 89.5 · 11.5% 10.0% 15.1% F B O C 55

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Imanaga +400 0.242 · 88.8 · 9.6% 0.0% 19.1% F B O C 53

· CIN Nathaniel Lowe COOL vs Imanaga — 0.201 · 88.5 · 10.5% 0.0% 15.9% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· — Carson Kelly COOL vs Greene +525 0.124 · 88.5 · 8.2% 12.5% 11.3% F B O D 44

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Imanaga Edge +320 0.158 · 87.4 · 9.2% 0.0% 20.5% F B O D 46

· — Alex Bregman COOL vs Greene +400 0.132 · 87.7 · 7.1% 8.3% 10.6% F B O D 42

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Imanaga Edge +625 0.144 · 88.8 · 9.8% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 45

· CIN Tj Friedl vs Imanaga — 0.101 · 87.9 · 5.6% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 38

· — Nico Hoerner COOL vs Greene +950 0.095 · 85.7 · 3.2% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 32

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Imanaga Edge +425 0.139 · 91.1 · 10.5% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 47

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.0% ← leak OFF 32.9% BRK 17.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Sal Stewart R Edge

15.8% 12.5% 10.1% 13.7% C+ 64 +305

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

20.7% 2.4% 9.5% 14.6% C+ 62 +370

Spencer Steer R Edge

12.6% 14.8% 11.1% 12.4% C 55 +390

Jj Bleday L

9.8% 6.5% 8.3% 8.6% C 53 +400

Nathaniel Lowe L

8.7% 13.3% 10.0% 9.9% C 53 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Tyler Stephenson R Edge

14.0% 7.1% 4.4% 10.7% D 47 +425

Eugenio Suarez R Edge

9.0% 7.7% 3.1% 7.6% D 46 +320

Matt Mclain R Edge

10.8% 0.0% 11.1% 9.8% D 45 +625

145

Tj Friedl L

3.1% 0.0% 4.3% 2.8% D 38 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.0% usage) carries Imanaga's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.8% ← leak BRK 40.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

9.4% 13.0% 10.6% C+ 65 +290

Ian Happ S Edge

16.3% 20.8% 14.1% C+ 61 +305

Seiya Suzuki R

9.7% 8.7% 8.7% C 59 +320

Dansby Swanson R

8.7% 4.5% 8.2% C 57 +350

Michael Busch L Edge

13.0% 7.5% 10.7% C 53 +320

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Carson Kelly R

7.6% 4.0% 6.5% D 44 +525

118

Alex Bregman R

4.8% 6.8% 5.5% D 42 +400

193

Nico Hoerner R

1.9% 0.0% 1.2% D 32 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.8% usage) carries Greene's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stewart Cruz Crow-Armstrong Happ Suzuki Swanson Busch

Legend

attack side — vs Greene fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Seiya Suzuki +320 · 59

Sal Stewart +305 · 64

Pete Crow-Armstrong +290 · 65

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 5 mph out 73°F open

-1

↑

5 mph · in

84°F

7:10p

-1

↑

4 mph · in

84°F

8:10p

-1

↑

4 mph · in

82°F

9:10p

↑

3 mph · in

79°F

10:10p · peak

↑

3 mph · in

77°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 73°F, wind 5 mph ESE (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shota Imanaga · LHP 1.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.70 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 64 C+ +305 · 8 0.221 90.9 12.3% 33.3%vs LHP 393 13.0% 30.8% 31.9% 39

2 Elly De La Cruz 62 C+ +370 WARM 13 0.223 94.3 12.2% 38.9%vs LHP 395 15.5% 15.4% 24.5% 33

3 Spencer Steer 55 C +390 COOL 34 0.188 89.5 11.5% 27.3%vs LHP 393 13.1% 10.0% 15.1% 25

4 Jj Bleday 53 C +400 COOL 42 0.242 88.8 9.6% 21.4%vs LHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 19.1% 33

5 Nathaniel Lowe 53 C — COOL 48 0.201 88.5 10.5% 21.4% 398 13.7% 0.0% 15.9% 10

6 Tyler Stephenson 47 D +425 WARM 80 0.139 91.1 10.5% 6.7%vs LHP 384 7.0% 0.0% 8.5% 20

7 Eugenio Suarez 46 D +320 WARM 82 0.158 87.4 9.2% 23.1%vs LHP 381 0.0% 0.0% 20.5% 21

8 Matt Mclain 45 D +625 COOL 88 0.144 88.8 9.8% 22.2%vs LHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 11

9 Tj Friedl 38 D — WARM 145 0.101 87.9 5.6% 6.4% 374 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 18

vs Hunter Greene · RHP 3.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.78 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 65 C+ +290 COOL 7 0.241 90.4 10.9% 21.5%vs RHP 392 20.4% 25.0% 35.4% 26

2 Ian Happ 61 C+ +305 COOL 18 0.221 89.7 12.1% 25.4%vs RHP 402 19.6% 8.3% 20.1% 26

3 Seiya Suzuki 59 C +320 WARM 20 0.189 89.4 10.0% 22.7%vs RHP 407 15.3% 41.7% 28.1% 36

4 Dansby Swanson 57 C +350 WARM 26 0.200 90.0 9.5% 20.4%vs RHP 403 14.3% 16.7% 29.0% 34

5 Michael Busch 53 C +320 COOL 46 0.158 88.3 10.9% 14.1%vs RHP 403 12.8% 16.7% 17.4% 29

6 Carson Kelly 44 D +525 COOL 98 0.124 88.5 8.2% 5.0%vs RHP 421 6.4% 12.5% 11.3% 16

7 Alex Bregman 42 D +400 COOL 118 0.132 87.7 7.1% 15.4%vs RHP 398 6.6% 8.3% 10.6% 39

8 Nico Hoerner 32 D +950 COOL 193 0.095 85.7 3.2% 3.8%vs RHP 383 4.3% 0.0% 8.8% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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