TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ STL

Neutral air · 1.00×

ATL @ STL

Busch Stadium · 8:15p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.83× Wind 2 mph in 89°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

7:15p

-7 ↑

8:15p

-7 ↑

9:15p

-7 ↑

10:15p

-7 ↑

11:15p

conditions hold steady across the window · -7 FIT

Best of game Matt Olson conv 25 · vs Leahy ⟷ Jordan Walker conv 32 · vs Sale → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Kyle Leahy RHP · STL

leak 89

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +425 C+ ●●●●○

2 Ozzie Albies +700 D ●●○○○

3 Mike Yastrzemski +850 D ●●○○○

FADE Chris Sale LHP · ATL

leak 58

0.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jordan Walker +525 C ●●●●●

2 Alec Burleson +950 D ●●○○○

3 Nelson Velazquez +625 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 27.8% · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· STL Jordan Walker vs Sale Edge +525 0.243 · 94.3 · 9.4% 38.5% 26.1% F B O C 53

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Leahy Edge +425 0.280 · 92.9 · 12.7% 23.1% 27.8% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· STL Alec Burleson vs Sale +950 0.195 · 91.6 · 8.2% 16.7% 9.4% F B O D 41

· STL Nelson Velazquez vs Sale Edge +625 0.258 · 94.7 · 8.5% 0.0% 24.8% F B O D 37

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Leahy Edge +700 0.171 · 87.1 · 6.8% 15.4% 9.2% F B O D 38

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Leahy Edge +850 0.143 · 90.3 · 8.2% 10.0% 11.4% F B O D 37

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Leahy Edge +575 0.193 · 91.4 · 13.1% 7.7% 12.0% F B O D 49

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Sale Edge — 0.134 · 85.0 · 3.8% 10.0% 6.3% F B O D 27

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs Leahy +625 0.147 · 90.2 · 10.7% 7.7% 6.8% F B O D 39

· STL Masyn Winn vs Sale Edge — 0.091 · 87.8 · 4.4% 7.7% 5.1% F B O D 23

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Sale Edge +950 0.155 · 89.3 · 6.0% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 28

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Leahy Edge — 0.125 · 87.7 · 8.3% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 33

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Leahy — 0.149 · 86.3 · 7.2% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 31

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Sale — 0.139 · 90.0 · 6.6% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 27

· STL Blaze Jordan COOL vs Sale Edge — 0.114 · 88.3 · 6.1% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 28

· STL Pedro Pages COOL vs Sale Edge — 0.120 · 87.1 · 5.7% 0.0% 5.1% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 45.0% FB 41.7% OFF 13.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

10.1% 17.2% 12.5% 14.6% C+ 61 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Drake Baldwin L Edge

21.7% 16.8% 0.0% 15.4% D 49 +575

160

Austin Riley R

12.7% 12.8% 3.4% 11.6% D 39 +625

166

Ozzie Albies S Edge

1.2% 6.2% 3.4% 4.1% D 38 +700

173

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

4.8% 4.2% 10.3% 5.4% D 37 +850

197

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.7% 6.6% 3.1% 6.0% D 33 —

209

Mauricio Dubon R

6.0% 3.9% 4.3% 4.6% D 31 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Leahy's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 48.6% ← leak BRK 39.2% OFF 12.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R Edge

14.9% 14.1% 16.1% 14.8% C 53 +525

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

139

Alec Burleson L

11.0% 12.1% 8.1% 10.7% D 41 +950

171

Nelson Velazquez R Edge

16.7% 9.1% 0.0% 13.6% D 37 +625

217

Ivan Herrera R Edge

6.0% 7.0% 8.8% 6.7% D 28 +950

218

Blaze Jordan R Edge

2.4% 6.7% 20.0% 6.1% D 28 —

219

Jj Wetherholt L

11.0% 4.1% 2.6% 8.1% D 27 —

221

José Fermín R Edge

2.4% 3.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 27 —

228

Pedro Pages R Edge

8.5% 2.6% 0.0% 5.4% D 25 —

236

Masyn Winn R Edge

3.8% 2.4% 3.4% 3.2% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.6% usage) carries Sale's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Walker Burleson

Legend

attack side — vs Leahy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jordan Walker +525 · 53

Matt Olson +425 · 61

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.83× Wind 2 mph in 89°F open

-7

↑

4 mph · cross

73°F

7:15p · peak

-7

↑

4 mph · cross

73°F

8:15p

-7

↑

4 mph · cross

73°F

9:15p

-7

↑

4 mph · cross

73°F

10:15p

-7

↑

4 mph · cross

73°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 89°F, wind 2 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kyle Leahy · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 61 C+ +425 WARM 19 0.280 92.9 12.7% 32.7%vs RHP 408 21.7% 23.1% 27.8% 37

2 Drake Baldwin 49 D +575 COOL 72 0.193 91.4 13.1% 25.0%vs RHP 406 18.3% 7.7% 12.0% 41

3 Austin Riley 39 D +625 COOL 160 0.147 90.2 10.7% 14.0%vs RHP 404 7.7% 7.7% 6.8% 31

4 Ozzie Albies 38 D +700 · 166 0.171 87.1 6.8% 13.1%vs RHP 383 13.0% 15.4% 9.2% 43

5 Mike Yastrzemski 37 D +850 WARM 173 0.143 90.3 8.2% 17.4%vs RHP 387 8.3% 10.0% 11.4% 29

6 Dominic Smith 33 D — COOL 197 0.125 87.7 8.3% 13.6%vs RHP 390 7.0% 0.0% 7.1% 26

7 Mauricio Dubon 31 D — COOL 209 0.149 86.3 7.2% 12.8%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 44

vs Chris Sale · LHP 0.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 53 C +525 WARM 48 0.243 94.3 9.4% 37.5%vs LHP 406 21.2% 38.5% 26.1% 32

2 Alec Burleson 41 D +950 · 139 0.195 91.6 8.2% 7.7%vs LHP 407 17.2% 16.7% 9.4% 37

3 Nelson Velazquez 37 D +625 · 171 0.258 94.7 8.5% 30.8%vs LHP 415 0.0% 0.0% 24.8% 16

4 Ivan Herrera 28 D +950 COOL 217 0.155 89.3 6.0% 27.8%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 38

5 Blaze Jordan 28 D — COOL 218 0.114 88.3 6.1% 5.6% 418 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 25

6 Jj Wetherholt 27 D — · 219 0.139 90.0 6.6% 9.4%vs LHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 43

7 José Fermín 27 D — COOL 221 0.134 85.0 3.8% 11.1%vs LHP 384 6.7% 10.0% 6.3% 35

8 Pedro Pages 25 D — COOL 228 0.120 87.1 5.7% 0.0%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 11

9 Masyn Winn 23 D — · 236 0.091 87.8 4.4% 0.0%vs LHP 390 4.7% 7.7% 5.1% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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