TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.91×

MIL @ PIT

PNC Park · 6:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.83× Wind 3 mph in 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:40p

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7:40p

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8:40p

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9:40p

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10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · -5 FIT

Best of game Esmerlyn Valdez conv 29 · vs Sproat ⟷ Jake Bauers conv 24 · vs Ashcraft → edge: Esmerlyn Valdez

ATTACK Brandon Sproat RHP · MIL

leak 98

1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.90 · leakiest side of this game

1 Esmerlyn Valdez — C ●●●●○

2 Bryan Reynolds — D ●●●○○

3 Ryan O'Hearn — D ●●●○○

FADE Braxton Ashcraft RHP · PIT

leak 86

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Bauers — C ●●●●○

2 Garrett Mitchell — D ●●●○○

3 Joey Ortiz — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Esmerlyn Valdez: Match 30.7% · 14D pace 27.3% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Esmerlyn Valdez ✶ vs Sproat — 0.320 · 91.1 · 15.2% 27.3% 30.7% F B O C 57

· MIL Jake Bauers vs Ashcraft Edge — 0.259 · 92.3 · 8.9% 20.0% 28.0% F B O C 51

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Sproat Edge — 0.246 · 90.9 · 10.1% 16.7% 16.2% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· MIL Garrett Mitchell HOT vs Ashcraft Edge — 0.186 · 93.0 · 9.5% 21.4% 19.9% F B O D 43

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Sproat Edge — 0.189 · 90.9 · 9.2% 23.1% 17.4% F B O D 48

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn vs Sproat Edge — 0.197 · 89.7 · 8.1% 16.7% 19.0% F B O D 46

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Ashcraft — 0.078 · 87.7 · 4.6% 28.6% 6.7% F B O D 25

· PIT Henry Davis COOL vs Sproat — 0.177 · 89.5 · 9.4% 14.3% 15.8% F B O D 44

· PIT Tyler Callihan COOL vs Sproat Edge — 0.214 · 84.8 · 8.4% 14.3% 15.6% F B O D 42

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Ashcraft Edge — 0.189 · 90.9 · 6.9% 14.3% 11.7% F B O D 38

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Sproat — 0.084 · 86.1 · 4.7% 8.3% 7.4% F B O D 27

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Sproat Edge — 0.053 · 84.2 · 3.6% 8.3% 6.5% F B O D 24

· MIL William Contreras COOL vs Ashcraft — 0.138 · 90.1 · 6.5% 7.7% 6.9% F B O D 32

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Ashcraft Edge — 0.132 · 88.8 · 6.7% 7.1% 7.0% F B O D 31

· PIT Jared Triolo vs Sproat — 0.081 · 87.0 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 26

· MIL Sal Frelick COOL vs Ashcraft Edge — 0.092 · 85.9 · 3.5% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 21

· MIL Cooper Pratt COOL vs Ashcraft — 0.061 · 88.6 · 5.7% 0.0% 4.8% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 49.0% FB 45.8% OFF 5.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jake Bauers L Edge

13.2% 14.2% 13.8% 13.9% C 51 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

111

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

13.0% 18.3% 5.6% 15.2% D 43 —

162

Brice Turang L Edge

9.5% 8.9% 2.4% 8.0% D 38 —

206

William Contreras R

7.1% 10.0% 0.0% 8.4% D 32 —

212

Christian Yelich L Edge

10.9% 4.8% 13.3% 7.2% D 31 —

227

Cooper Pratt R

0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 5.6% D 26 —

231

Joey Ortiz R

5.7% 2.8% 0.0% 3.5% D 25 —

238

Sal Frelick L Edge

5.3% 1.2% 0.0% 2.0% D 21 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Ashcraft's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 70.8% BRK 21.5% OFF 7.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Esmerlyn Valdez R

20.0% 44.4% 0.0% 28.0% C 57 —

Brandon Lowe L Edge

16.5% 7.1% 12.5% 12.6% C 53 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

9.8% 14.7% 5.4% 10.2% D 48 —

Ryan O'Hearn L Edge

10.1% 6.2% 4.5% 8.5% D 46 —

105

Henry Davis R

11.8% 5.6% 15.4% 10.4% D 44 —

122

Tyler Callihan L Edge

10.5% 5.9% 9.1% 8.5% D 42 —

220

Nick Gonzales R

1.8% 4.9% 0.0% 2.6% D 27 —

225

Jared Triolo R

3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 26 —

233

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% D 24 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Sproat's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Mitchell Ortiz Valdez Lowe Reynolds O'Hearn Davis Callihan

Legend

attack side — vs Sproat fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Esmerlyn Valdez — · 57

Jake Bauers — · 51

Garrett Mitchell — · 43

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.83× Wind 3 mph in 79°F open

-5

↑

1 mph · cross

73°F

6:40p · peak

-5

↑

1 mph · cross

73°F

7:40p

-5

↑

1 mph · cross

73°F

8:40p

-5

↑

1 mph · cross

73°F

9:40p

-5

↑

1 mph · cross

73°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.91× 79°F, wind 3 mph SE (in) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Braxton Ashcraft · RHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 51 C — · 62 0.259 92.3 8.9% 37.0%vs RHP 402 20.3% 20.0% 28.0% 35

2 Garrett Mitchell 43 D — HOT 111 0.186 93.0 9.5% 29.6%vs RHP 415 9.9% 21.4% 19.9% 31

3 Brice Turang 38 D — COOL 162 0.189 90.9 6.9% 27.7%vs RHP 408 11.2% 14.3% 11.7% 49

4 William Contreras 32 D — COOL 206 0.138 90.1 6.5% 18.2%vs RHP 419 10.6% 7.7% 6.9% 43

5 Christian Yelich 31 D — WARM 212 0.132 88.8 6.7% 14.8%vs RHP 402 7.1% 7.1% 7.0% 32

6 Cooper Pratt 26 D — COOL 227 0.061 88.6 5.7% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 33

7 Joey Ortiz 25 D — WARM 231 0.078 87.7 4.6% 8.0%vs RHP 407 3.6% 28.6% 6.7% 34

8 Sal Frelick 21 D — COOL 238 0.092 85.9 3.5% 5.1%vs RHP 402 2.7% 0.0% 6.0% 35

vs Brandon Sproat · RHP 1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.90 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Esmerlyn Valdez ✶ 57 C — · 28 0.320 91.1 15.2% 30.8%vs RHP 403 20.0% 27.3% 30.7% 34

2 Brandon Lowe 53 C — · 52 0.246 90.9 10.1% 25.4%vs RHP 392 17.5% 16.7% 16.2% 36

3 Bryan Reynolds 48 D — COOL 76 0.189 90.9 9.2% 18.6%vs RHP 409 14.9% 23.1% 17.4% 36

4 Ryan O'Hearn 46 D — WARM 84 0.197 89.7 8.1% 22.6%vs RHP 384 16.1% 16.7% 19.0% 41

5 Henry Davis 44 D — COOL 105 0.177 89.5 9.4% 31.8%vs RHP 393 12.5% 14.3% 15.8% 17

6 Tyler Callihan 42 D — COOL 122 0.214 84.8 8.4% 17.6%vs RHP 411 10.0% 14.3% 15.6% 15

7 Nick Gonzales 27 D — COOL 220 0.084 86.1 4.7% 8.8%vs RHP 399 4.8% 8.3% 7.4% 34

8 Jared Triolo 26 D — WARM 225 0.081 87.0 4.3% 5.6%vs RHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 28

9 Jake Mangum 24 D — WARM 233 0.053 84.2 3.6% 11.1%vs RHP 408 4.1% 8.3% 6.5% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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