TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ DET

Suppressed air · 0.94×

PHI @ DET

Comerica Park · 6:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 2 mph slight_out 70°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:40p

-4 ↑

7:40p

-4 ↑

8:40p

-4 ↑

9:40p

-4 ↑

10:40p

the 7:40p window peaks -4

Best of game Kerry Carpenter conv 29 · vs Nola ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 27 · vs Flaherty → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Aaron Nola RHP · PHI

leak 96

1.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kerry Carpenter +350 C ●●●●○

2 Colt Keith +575 D ●●●●○

3 Riley Greene +320 C ●●●●○

FADE Jack Flaherty RHP · DET

leak 67

1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber +205 C+ ●●●●○

2 Bryce Harper +400 C ●●●○○

3 Brandon Marsh +500 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 31.8% · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Kerry Carpenter vs Nola Edge +350 0.232 · 91.0 · 10.2% 30.0% 28.1% F B O C 54

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Flaherty Edge +205 0.322 · 93.6 · 13.1% 23.1% 31.8% F B O C+ 66

· DET Riley Greene vs Nola Edge +320 0.180 · 91.7 · 11.3% 27.3% 19.8% F B O C 50

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Nola +425 0.198 · 90.1 · 11.4% 18.2% 24.4% F B O C 52

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Flaherty Edge +400 0.243 · 90.3 · 10.3% 15.4% 25.5% F B O C 53

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Nola +475 0.275 · 90.1 · 10.4% 0.0% 18.9% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· DET Colt Keith vs Nola Edge +575 0.139 · 88.8 · 8.5% 33.3% 14.5% F B O D 41

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs Flaherty Edge +500 0.193 · 89.7 · 9.3% 16.7% 21.2% F B O D 46

· PHI Trea Turner vs Flaherty +575 0.121 · 88.6 · 7.4% 25.0% 12.1% F B O D 36

· PHI Alec Bohm HOT vs Flaherty +750 0.143 · 90.0 · 6.7% 16.7% 10.0% F B O D 36

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Flaherty +700 0.134 · — · 6.8% 0.0% 13.4% F B O D 30

· DET Matt Vierling COOL vs Nola — 0.136 · 87.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 35

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Flaherty Edge +625 0.144 · 89.0 · 7.8% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 35

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Nola Edge +525 0.130 · 88.3 · 8.5% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 35

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Nola Edge +950 0.089 · 84.4 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 25

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Flaherty Edge — 0.096 · 86.6 · 3.0% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.6% BRK 43.8% OFF 2.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

19.7% 16.4% 28.0% 19.7% C+ 66 +205

Bryce Harper L Edge

9.4% 17.9% 9.4% 12.2% C 53 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brandon Marsh L Edge

8.8% 16.2% 2.8% 10.0% D 46 +500

164

Trea Turner R

8.8% 4.4% 0.0% 6.6% D 36 +575

165

Alec Bohm R

5.0% 4.5% 6.7% 5.1% D 36 +750

173

Bryson Stott L Edge

7.4% 5.6% 6.2% 6.7% D 35 +625

204

J.T. Realmuto R

5.1% 4.5% 8.3% 5.2% D 30 +700

220

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% D 24 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Flaherty's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.1% ← leak BRK 33.6% OFF 13.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Dillon Dingler R

13.1% 12.1% 6.2% 12.0% C 55 +475

Kerry Carpenter L Edge

10.7% 11.4% 8.7% 10.6% C 54 +350

Spencer Torkelson R

17.1% 9.3% 21.1% 15.3% C 52 +425

Riley Greene L Edge

15.8% 14.8% 6.4% 13.8% C 50 +320

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

124

Colt Keith L Edge

7.1% 19.4% 4.7% 8.5% D 41 +575

170

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

9.2% 8.8% 2.1% 8.0% D 35 +525

172

Matt Vierling R

7.7% 3.0% 0.0% 5.1% D 35 —

216

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

1.9% 2.2% 0.0% 1.7% D 25 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.1% usage) carries Nola's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Marsh Turner Bohm Carpenter Torkelson Greene Keith

Legend

attack side — vs Nola fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Kerry Carpenter +350 · 54

Kyle Schwarber +205 · 66

Riley Greene +320 · 50

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 2 mph slight_out 70°F open

-5

↑

6 mph · in

81°F

6:40p

-4

↑

6 mph · cross

81°F

7:40p · peak

-4

↑

6 mph · cross

79°F

8:40p

-4

↑

6 mph · cross

76°F

9:40p

-4

↑

6 mph · cross

74°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.94× 70°F, wind 3 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jack Flaherty · RHP 1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 66 C+ +205 · 6 0.322 93.6 13.1% 45.5%vs RHP 404 26.7% 23.1% 31.8% 25

2 Bryce Harper 53 C +400 COOL 43 0.243 90.3 10.3% 42.5%vs RHP 400 20.2% 15.4% 25.5% 29

3 Brandon Marsh 46 D +500 WARM 83 0.193 89.7 9.3% 26.7%vs RHP 392 14.1% 16.7% 21.2% 30

4 Trea Turner 36 D +575 WARM 164 0.121 88.6 7.4% 17.0%vs RHP 393 11.5% 25.0% 12.1% 38

5 Alec Bohm 36 D +750 HOT 165 0.143 90.0 6.7% 20.6%vs RHP 394 11.6% 16.7% 10.0% 35

6 Bryson Stott 35 D +625 · 173 0.144 89.0 7.8% 9.8%vs RHP 393 8.3% 0.0% 7.6% 36

7 J.T. Realmuto 30 D +700 · 204 0.134 — 6.8% 18.8%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 21

8 Justin Crawford 24 D — COOL 220 0.096 86.6 3.0% 6.2%vs RHP 382 3.0% 0.0% 6.5% 32

vs Aaron Nola · RHP 1.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.04 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 55 C +475 COOL 30 0.275 90.1 10.4% 28.3%vs RHP 397 19.8% 0.0% 18.9% 34

2 Kerry Carpenter 54 C +350 WARM 37 0.232 91.0 10.2% 25.5%vs RHP 380 16.9% 30.0% 28.1% 26

3 Spencer Torkelson 52 C +425 WARM 52 0.198 90.1 11.4% 23.2%vs RHP 393 15.6% 18.2% 24.4% 23

4 Riley Greene 50 C +320 WARM 60 0.180 91.7 11.3% 17.5%vs RHP 399 12.1% 27.3% 19.8% 32

5 Colt Keith 41 D +575 · 124 0.139 88.8 8.5% 13.5%vs RHP 385 6.6% 33.3% 14.5% 23

6 Kevin Mcgonigle 35 D +525 · 170 0.130 88.3 8.5% 6.7%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 33

7 Matt Vierling 35 D — COOL 172 0.136 87.6 7.0% 9.1%vs RHP 377 8.2% 0.0% 8.2% 26

8 Zach Mckinstry 25 D +950 COOL 216 0.089 84.4 4.1% 6.7%vs RHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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