TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.23×

AZ @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.23× Wind 4 mph out 64°F Roof open

Hourly window

+14 ↑

7:10p

+13 ↑

8:10p

+12 ↑

9:10p

+11 ↑

10:10p

+9 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +14

Best of game Ketel Marte conv 28 · vs Ohtani ⟷ Shohei Ohtani conv 27 · vs Rodriguez → edge: Shohei Ohtani

ATTACK Shohei Ohtani RHP · LAD

leak 40

0.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ketel Marte +330 C ●●●●○

2 Nolan Arenado +575 D ●●●○○

3 Geraldo Perdomo +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · AZ

leak 12

0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.33 · stingy — thin edge

1 Shohei Ohtani +235 C+ ●●●●○

2 Freddie Freeman +390 C ●●○○○

3 Mookie Betts +390 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shohei Ohtani: 16.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· AZ Ketel Marte vs Ohtani Edge +330 0.213 · 91.7 · 6.5% 30.8% 26.0% F B O C 55

· LAD Shohei Ohtani ✶ COOL vs Rodriguez +235 0.243 · 93.5 · 12.3% 23.1% 31.8% F B O C+ 69

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Rodriguez +390 0.200 · 90.6 · 10.1% 15.4% 13.9% F B O C 58

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Rodriguez Edge +390 0.183 · 90.8 · 8.9% 15.4% 11.7% F B O C 53

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Rodriguez +330 0.232 · 90.3 · 11.3% 6.7% 18.7% F B O C+ 62

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +330 0.193 · 89.1 · 8.8% 7.7% 14.1% F B O C 55

· AZ Corbin Carroll COOL vs Ohtani Edge +390 0.232 · 91.5 · 6.5% 0.0% 18.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado COOL vs Ohtani +575 0.163 · 85.1 · 4.8% 25.0% 15.4% F B O D 45

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs Ohtani Edge +750 0.117 · 87.2 · 3.5% 15.4% 9.6% F B O D 37

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Rodriguez +475 0.128 · 88.8 · 7.0% 8.3% 7.5% F B O D 44

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +390 0.172 · 90.2 · 9.7% 0.0% 13.3% F B O D 49

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Ohtani +750 0.167 · 89.3 · 5.3% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 42

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Ohtani Edge +850 0.150 · 87.0 · 3.7% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 38

· LAD Alex Freeland COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.095 · 88.7 · 7.0% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.4% ← leak BRK 39.4% OFF 8.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ketel Marte S Edge

15.7% 7.9% 4.5% 11.4% C 55 +330

Corbin Carroll L Edge

11.4% 14.3% 6.4% 11.3% C 52 +390

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Nolan Arenado R

9.6% 1.3% 0.0% 5.9% D 45 +575

113

Gabriel Moreno R

7.3% 9.4% 12.5% 8.6% D 42 +750

148

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.9% 1.8% 1.9% 3.6% D 38 +850

161

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.2% 0.0% 3.1% 3.2% D 37 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.4% usage) carries Ohtani's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 59.9% ← leak OFF 27.1% BRK 13.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Shohei Ohtani L

21.4% 13.6% 11.1% 16.9% C+ 69 +235

Max Muncy L

18.7% 7.4% 14.0% 14.7% C+ 62 +330

Freddie Freeman L

10.8% 10.9% 10.4% 10.7% C 58 +390

Andy Pages R Edge

8.0% 6.9% 9.2% 8.2% C 55 +330

Mookie Betts R Edge

11.1% 7.4% 3.9% 8.8% C 53 +390

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

10.5% 9.1% 15.6% 11.4% D 49 +390

101

Kyle Tucker L

6.9% 1.8% 4.0% 5.2% D 44 +475

131

Alex Freeland S Edge

6.0% 3.8% 10.3% 6.5% D 41 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.9% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Marte Arenado Ohtani Freeman Betts

Legend

attack side — vs Ohtani fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Ketel Marte +330 · 55

Shohei Ohtani +235 · 69

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.23× Wind 4 mph out 64°F open

+14

↑

7 mph · out

77°F

7:10p · peak

+13

↑

6 mph · out

74°F

8:10p

+12

↑

5 mph · out

71°F

9:10p

+11

↑

4 mph · out

69°F

10:10p

↑

3 mph · out

67°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.23× 64°F, wind 4 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shohei Ohtani · RHP 0.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ketel Marte 55 C +330 · 29 0.213 91.7 6.5% 15.4%vs RHP 413 16.0% 30.8% 26.0% 43

2 Corbin Carroll 52 C +390 COOL 54 0.232 91.5 6.5% 21.7%vs RHP 406 13.7% 0.0% 18.2% 28

3 Nolan Arenado 45 D +575 COOL 94 0.163 85.1 4.8% 18.2%vs RHP 396 11.8% 25.0% 15.4% 29

4 Gabriel Moreno 42 D +750 COOL 113 0.167 89.3 5.3% 16.7%vs RHP 395 8.3% 0.0% 11.1% 37

5 Ildemaro Vargas 38 D +850 COOL 148 0.150 87.0 3.7% 10.3%vs RHP 399 5.9% 0.0% 10.1% 21

6 Geraldo Perdomo 37 D +750 WARM 161 0.117 87.2 3.5% 9.8%vs RHP 386 6.4% 15.4% 9.6% 37

vs Eduardo Rodriguez · LHP 0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.33 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 69 C+ +235 COOL 2 0.243 93.5 12.3% 29.2%vs LHP 405 19.3% 23.1% 31.8% 37

2 Max Muncy 62 C+ +330 COOL 14 0.232 90.3 11.3% 30.0%vs LHP 409 18.2% 6.7% 18.7% 46

3 Freddie Freeman 58 C +390 COOL 24 0.200 90.6 10.1% 16.7%vs LHP 398 14.6% 15.4% 13.9% 44

4 Andy Pages 55 C +330 COOL 35 0.193 89.1 8.8% 15.4%vs LHP 389 14.4% 7.7% 14.1% 37

5 Mookie Betts 53 C +390 WARM 50 0.183 90.8 8.9% 6.9%vs LHP 385 11.8% 15.4% 11.7% 43

6 Teoscar Hernandez 49 D +390 COOL 66 0.172 90.2 9.7% 20.0%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 21

7 Kyle Tucker 44 D +475 · 101 0.128 88.8 7.0% 4.8%vs LHP 399 5.7% 8.3% 7.5% 35

8 Alex Freeland 41 D — COOL 131 0.095 88.7 7.0% 12.5%vs LHP 373 2.9% 0.0% 9.2% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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