TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ MIN

Target Field is live · 1.23×

LAA @ MIN

Target Field · 8:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 3 mph cross 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

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7:10p

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8:10p

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9:10p

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10:10p

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11:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · -1 FIT

Best of game Mike Trout conv 38 · vs Matthews ⟷ Kody Clemens conv 36 · vs Rodriguez → edge: Mike Trout

ATTACK Zebby Matthews RHP · MIN

leak 97

1.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.02 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mike Trout — C+ ●●●●●

2 Zach Neto +700 C+ ●●●○○

3 Jo Adell +625 C ●●●○○

FADE Grayson Rodriguez RHP · LAA

leak 89

1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.40 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kody Clemens +390 C+ ●●●●●

2 Josh Bell +525 C ●●●●○

3 Royce Lewis +500 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Mike Trout: 20.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAA Mike Trout ✶ COOL vs Matthews — 0.238 · 91.2 · 16.3% 50.0% 25.7% F B O C+ 69

· MIN Kody Clemens vs Rodriguez Edge +390 0.257 · 92.8 · 11.9% 41.7% 30.8% F B O C+ 68

· MIN Josh Bell vs Rodriguez Edge +525 0.176 · 89.9 · 10.9% 27.3% 21.8% F B O C 55

· LAA Zach Neto vs Matthews +700 0.226 · 89.9 · 13.2% 16.7% 21.0% F B O C+ 64

· LAA Jo Adell COOL vs Matthews +625 0.152 · 90.0 · 10.5% 16.7% 17.8% F B O C 52

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Matthews Edge +625 0.143 · 88.8 · 10.4% 16.7% 14.2% F B O C 50

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Rodriguez +500 0.155 · 89.0 · 11.6% 16.7% 11.8% F B O C 53

· MIN Ryan Jeffers vs Rodriguez +425 0.246 · 91.2 · 13.1% 0.0% 22.4% F B O C 59

· LAA Jorge Soler COOL vs Matthews +575 0.197 · 88.1 · 12.0% 0.0% 18.1% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs Rodriguez +850 0.102 · 84.2 · 5.9% 18.2% 10.0% F B O D 38

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Rodriguez Edge +625 0.182 · 88.1 · 6.6% 8.3% 13.0% F B O D 48

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Rodriguez Edge +575 0.155 · 87.3 · 8.9% 9.1% 9.9% F B O D 46

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Matthews +850 0.133 · 89.5 · 8.7% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 44

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Matthews +950 0.139 · 87.2 · 10.1% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 46

· LAA Logan O'Hoppe vs Matthews — 0.102 · 87.1 · 12.0% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 45

· MIN Tristan Gray COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +700 0.100 · 88.7 · 8.3% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 41

· LAA Nolan Schanuel COOL vs Matthews Edge — 0.116 · 87.1 · 5.3% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.4% ← leak BRK 34.6% OFF 12.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Mike Trout R

19.4% 31.2% 10.5% 20.5% C+ 69 —

Zach Neto R

16.9% 9.7% 4.0% 13.2% C+ 64 +700

Jorge Soler R

14.4% 11.5% 0.0% 12.1% C 55 +575

Jo Adell R

8.6% 7.1% 6.5% 7.9% C 52 +625

Josh Lowe L Edge

12.3% 2.6% 4.8% 8.1% C 50 +625

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Oswald Peraza R

6.7% 7.8% 13.0% 7.8% D 46 +950

100

Logan O'Hoppe R

11.5% 9.3% 14.3% 11.0% D 45 —

109

Vaughn Grissom R

6.9% 7.0% 0.0% 5.9% D 44 +850

168

Nolan Schanuel L Edge

2.9% 1.8% 0.0% 2.2% D 38 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.4% usage) carries Matthews's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.4% ← leak BRK 26.7% OFF 19.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Kody Clemens L Edge

10.5% 20.0% 12.5% 13.2% C+ 68 +390

Ryan Jeffers

18.8% 12.9% 9.1% 16.2% C 59 +425

Josh Bell S Edge

10.7% 15.5% 6.8% 10.9% C 55 +525

Royce Lewis R

14.4% 10.6% 5.0% 12.2% C 53 +500

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.6% 1.2% 1.4% 4.2% D 48 +625

Trevor Larnach L Edge

9.5% 6.8% 3.3% 8.0% D 46 +575

142

Tristan Gray L Edge

9.4% 5.6% 0.0% 6.1% D 41 +700

164

Luke Keaschall R

3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 3.5% D 38 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.4% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Trout Neto Adell Lowe Clemens Bell Lewis Keaschall

Legend

attack side — vs Matthews fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Mike Trout — · 69

Kody Clemens +390 · 68

Josh Bell +525 · 55

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.03× Wind 3 mph cross 87°F open

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5 mph · cross

77°F

7:10p · peak

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5 mph · cross

77°F

8:10p

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5 mph · cross

77°F

9:10p

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5 mph · cross

77°F

10:10p

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5 mph · cross

77°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.23× 87°F, wind 3 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Zebby Matthews · RHP 1.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.02 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout ✶ 69 C+ — COOL 3 0.238 91.2 16.3% 28.0%vs RHP 409 19.4% 50.0% 25.7% 6

2 Zach Neto 64 C+ +700 · 10 0.226 89.9 13.2% 21.2%vs RHP 402 19.5% 16.7% 21.0% 35

3 Jorge Soler 55 C +575 COOL 37 0.197 88.1 12.0% 34.4%vs RHP 398 14.3% 0.0% 18.1% 24

4 Jo Adell 52 C +625 COOL 57 0.152 90.0 10.5% 10.4%vs RHP 409 11.5% 16.7% 17.8% 36

5 Josh Lowe 50 C +625 WARM 66 0.143 88.8 10.4% 17.1%vs RHP 395 10.9% 16.7% 14.2% 28

6 Oswald Peraza 46 D +950 COOL 90 0.139 87.2 10.1% 10.0%vs RHP 386 7.5% 0.0% 9.6% 14

7 Logan O'Hoppe 45 D — · 100 0.102 87.1 12.0% 13.3%vs RHP 408 4.0% 0.0% 9.5% 24

8 Vaughn Grissom 44 D +850 COOL 109 0.133 89.5 8.7% 14.8%vs RHP 396 6.9% 0.0% 9.9% 16

9 Nolan Schanuel 38 D — COOL 168 0.116 87.1 5.3% 11.8%vs RHP 372 8.0% 0.0% 8.4% 32

vs Grayson Rodriguez · RHP 1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.40 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 68 C+ +390 WARM 5 0.257 92.8 11.9% 22.9%vs RHP 390 20.0% 41.7% 30.8% 37

2 Ryan Jeffers 59 C +425 · 22 0.246 91.2 13.1% 28.0%vs RHP 402 17.1% 0.0% 22.4% 0

3 Josh Bell 55 C +525 WARM 36 0.176 89.9 10.9% 21.7%vs RHP 404 11.8% 27.3% 21.8% 37

4 Royce Lewis 53 C +500 · 54 0.155 89.0 11.6% 18.9%vs RHP 393 17.3% 16.7% 11.8% 34

5 Brooks Lee 48 D +625 WARM 77 0.182 88.1 6.6% 19.6%vs RHP 367 15.5% 8.3% 13.0% 39

6 Trevor Larnach 46 D +575 WARM 89 0.155 87.3 8.9% 10.9%vs RHP 398 6.7% 9.1% 9.9% 33

7 Tristan Gray 41 D +700 COOL 142 0.100 88.7 8.3% 13.0%vs RHP 389 6.5% 0.0% 8.6% 15

8 Luke Keaschall 38 D +850 COOL 164 0.102 84.2 5.9% 8.2%vs RHP 370 5.1% 18.2% 10.0% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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