TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ SD

Suppressed air · 0.96×

TOR @ SD

Petco Park · 9:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.87× Wind 7 mph slight_out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

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6:40p

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7:40p

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8:40p

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9:40p

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10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · -1 FIT

Best of game Manny Machado conv 33 · vs Bieber ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 26 · vs Sears → edge: Manny Machado

ATTACK Shane Bieber RHP · TOR

leak 100

4.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +3.72 · leakiest side of this game

1 Manny Machado +350 C+ ●●●●●

2 Gavin Sheets +400 C ●●○○○

3 Ty France +475 C ●●○○○

FADE JP Sears LHP · SD

leak 86

2.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.46 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto +255 C ●●●●○

2 George Springer +400 D ●●○○○

3 Nathan Lukes — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Manny Machado: 10.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 35.7% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Manny Machado ✶ vs Bieber +350 0.212 · 90.1 · 13.5% 35.7% 30.4% F B O C+ 62

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Sears Edge +255 0.220 · 91.3 · 12.5% 27.3% 24.3% F B O C 58

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Bieber Edge +400 0.217 · 88.3 · 11.4% 8.3% 19.7% F B O C 53

· SD Ty France COOL vs Bieber +475 0.203 · 91.1 · 13.2% 7.7% 17.4% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· TOR George Springer vs Sears Edge +400 0.170 · 88.3 · 9.2% 16.7% 14.1% F B O D 44

· SD Jackson Merrill COOL vs Bieber Edge +400 0.137 · 89.4 · 12.5% 14.3% 9.7% F B O D 47

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Sears — 0.102 · 86.5 · 3.6% 8.3% 7.1% F B O D 30

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela COOL vs Sears Edge — 0.170 · 88.3 · 9.2% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 42

· SD Miguel Andujar vs Bieber +700 0.156 · 88.4 · 8.5% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 39

· SD Xander Bogaerts COOL vs Bieber +525 0.104 · 88.2 · 9.8% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 39

· TOR Daulton Varsho COOL vs Sears +575 0.149 · 85.7 · 8.2% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 38

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Sears — 0.131 · 86.3 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 32

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Sears Edge +575 0.132 · 85.3 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 39.0% BRK 29.3% OFF 22.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R Edge

15.8% 8.3% 17.6% 13.9% C 58 +255

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

106

George Springer R Edge

8.9% 6.2% 9.5% 8.1% D 44 +400

125

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

2.8% 22.2% 13.0% 8.0% D 42 —

167

Daulton Varsho L

8.2% 1.6% 6.9% 6.1% D 38 +575

202

Andres Gimenez L

3.1% 2.9% 6.1% 3.4% D 32 —

205

Ernie Clement R Edge

2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.2% D 32 +575

214

Nathan Lukes L

0.0% 2.6% 3.0% 1.2% D 30 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Sears's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.6% ← leak BRK 26.5% OFF 19.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Manny Machado R

13.0% 7.1% 5.9% 10.4% C+ 62 +350

Gavin Sheets L Edge

10.3% 4.9% 4.8% 8.1% C 53 +400

Ty France R

10.1% 10.0% 8.7% 9.9% C 53 +475

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Jackson Merrill L Edge

10.2% 9.0% 7.5% 9.3% D 47 +400

151

Miguel Andujar R

3.7% 5.2% 3.7% 4.2% D 39 +700

155

Xander Bogaerts R

7.3% 3.3% 4.8% 6.1% D 39 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.6% usage) carries Bieber's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Springer Machado Sheets

Legend

attack side — vs Bieber fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Manny Machado +350 · 62

Kazuma Okamoto +255 · 58

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.87× Wind 7 mph slight_out 77°F open

-1

↑

7 mph · slight_out

66°F

6:40p · peak

-1

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7 mph · slight_out

66°F

7:40p

-1

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7 mph · slight_out

66°F

8:40p

-1

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7 mph · slight_out

66°F

9:40p

-1

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7 mph · slight_out

66°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.96× 77°F, wind 7 mph SSW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs JP Sears · LHP 2.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.46 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 58 C +255 COOL 25 0.220 91.3 12.5% 27.8%vs LHP 397 20.5% 27.3% 24.3% 31

2 George Springer 44 D +400 WARM 106 0.170 88.3 9.2% 11.1%vs LHP 394 10.4% 16.7% 14.1% 13

3 Brandon Valenzuela 42 D — COOL 125 0.170 88.3 9.2% 28.6%vs LHP 397 10.3% 0.0% 11.2% 9

4 Daulton Varsho 38 D +575 COOL 167 0.149 85.7 8.2% 16.7%vs LHP 386 7.9% 0.0% 8.8% 29

5 Andres Gimenez 32 D — COOL 202 0.131 86.3 6.2% 22.2%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 24

6 Ernie Clement 32 D +575 COOL 205 0.132 85.3 4.9% 12.0%vs LHP 374 8.1% 0.0% 7.1% 44

7 Nathan Lukes 30 D — WARM 214 0.102 86.5 3.6% 10.0% 378 5.6% 8.3% 7.1% 41

vs Shane Bieber · RHP 4.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +3.72 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado ✶ 62 C+ +350 WARM 15 0.212 90.1 13.5% 30.0%vs RHP 395 20.7% 35.7% 30.4% 31

2 Gavin Sheets 53 C +400 COOL 50 0.217 88.3 11.4% 34.9%vs RHP 397 12.5% 8.3% 19.7% 38

3 Ty France 53 C +475 COOL 51 0.203 91.1 13.2% 30.8%vs RHP 393 13.5% 7.7% 17.4% 25

4 Jackson Merrill 47 D +400 COOL 80 0.137 89.4 12.5% 14.5%vs RHP 406 11.6% 14.3% 9.7% 39

5 Miguel Andujar 39 D +700 WARM 151 0.156 88.4 8.5% 15.4%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 26

6 Xander Bogaerts 39 D +525 COOL 155 0.104 88.2 9.8% 17.5%vs RHP 395 8.2% 0.0% 9.7% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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