TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ MIA

Playable air · 1.05×

CLE @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 7:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Rhys Hoskins conv 31 · vs Alcantara ⟷ Kyle Stowers conv 25 · vs Messick → edge: Rhys Hoskins

ATTACK Sandy Alcantara RHP · MIA

leak 28

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rhys Hoskins — C ●●●●●

2 Brayan Rocchio +700 D ●●○○○

3 Kyle Manzardo +350 D ●○○○○

FADE Parker Messick LHP · CLE

leak 18

0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Stowers — C ●●●●○

2 Otto Lopez +750 D ●●●○○

3 Heriberto Hernández +500 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rhys Hoskins: 10.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 40.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CLE Rhys Hoskins ✶ HOT vs Alcantara — 0.191 · 88.4 · 7.6% 40.0% 21.9% F B O C 51

· MIA Kyle Stowers HOT vs Messick — 0.230 · 91.6 · 8.6% 25.0% 24.4% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Messick Edge +750 0.170 · 89.7 · 6.7% 23.1% 13.7% F B O D 44

· MIA Heriberto Hernández HOT vs Messick Edge +500 0.234 · 92.4 · 8.1% 0.0% 32.2% F B O D 48

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Alcantara Edge +700 0.131 · 86.2 · 3.5% 18.2% 9.0% F B O D 37

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Messick Edge +950 0.135 · 87.5 · 3.0% 10.0% 9.6% F B O D 34

· CLE Kyle Manzardo COOL vs Alcantara Edge +350 0.157 · 89.0 · 7.7% 8.3% 10.9% F B O D 45

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Messick +850 0.099 · 86.7 · 4.5% 7.7% 7.5% F B O D 33

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Alcantara Edge +500 0.181 · 88.2 · 4.6% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 42

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Alcantara Edge +500 0.169 · 90.5 · 5.3% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 40

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Messick Edge — 0.128 · 86.9 · 5.2% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 35

· MIA Liam Hicks COOL vs Messick +750 0.166 · 85.4 · 4.9% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 40

· CLE Daniel Schneemann HOT vs Alcantara Edge +575 0.130 · 88.0 · 6.4% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 39

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Alcantara Edge — 0.055 · 83.1 · 1.5% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.4% ← leak OFF 21.7% BRK 20.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rhys Hoskins R

8.2% 16.7% 16.1% 10.6% C 51 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Kyle Manzardo L Edge

12.8% 8.8% 9.8% 11.2% D 45 +350

117

Travis Bazzana L Edge

6.2% 0.0% 4.9% 5.2% D 42 +500

132

Chase Delauter L Edge

8.0% 2.1% 6.9% 6.6% D 40 +500

140

Daniel Schneemann L Edge

11.6% 0.0% 6.1% 8.1% D 39 +575

162

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.3% 0.0% 4.2% 2.6% D 37 +700

221

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.4% usage) carries Alcantara's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 57.9% ← leak OFF 24.1% BRK 17.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kyle Stowers L

14.0% 3.2% 12.5% 11.6% C 54 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Heriberto Hernández R Edge

12.0% 8.3% 10.4% 11.2% D 48 +500

Otto Lopez R Edge

10.6% 2.3% 4.5% 7.3% D 44 +750

135

Liam Hicks L

3.9% 4.0% 3.5% 3.8% D 40 +750

176

Xavier Edwards S Edge

5.6% 1.9% 3.1% 4.4% D 35 —

178

Javier Sanoja R Edge

0.9% 0.0% 3.1% 1.5% D 34 +950

185

Jakob Marsee L

3.2% 8.3% 0.0% 3.4% D 33 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.9% usage) carries Messick's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hoskins Rocchio Stowers Hernández Lopez

Legend

attack side — vs Alcantara fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Rhys Hoskins — · 51

Kyle Stowers — · 54

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.05× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sandy Alcantara · RHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins ✶ 51 C — HOT 57 0.191 88.4 7.6% 25.0%vs RHP 383 13.4% 40.0% 21.9% 11

2 Kyle Manzardo 45 D +350 COOL 91 0.157 89.0 7.7% 22.7%vs RHP 389 11.0% 8.3% 10.9% 23

3 Travis Bazzana 42 D +500 COOL 117 0.181 88.2 4.6% 20.0%vs RHP 395 10.4% 0.0% 12.2% 32

4 Chase Delauter 40 D +500 WARM 132 0.169 90.5 5.3% 23.7%vs RHP 382 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 36

5 Daniel Schneemann 39 D +575 HOT 140 0.130 88.0 6.4% 12.8%vs RHP 398 6.8% 0.0% 8.1% 20

6 Brayan Rocchio 37 D +700 · 162 0.131 86.2 3.5% 12.2%vs RHP 382 7.1% 18.2% 9.0% 36

7 Steven Kwan 24 D — COOL 221 0.055 83.1 1.5% 2.0%vs RHP 381 1.2% 0.0% 6.7% 33

vs Parker Messick · LHP 0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 54 C — HOT 38 0.230 91.6 8.6% 20.0% 395 12.3% 25.0% 24.4% 29

2 Heriberto Hernández 48 D +500 HOT 70 0.234 92.4 8.1% 33.3%vs LHP 414 0.0% 0.0% 32.2% 26

3 Otto Lopez 44 D +750 · 96 0.170 89.7 6.7% 10.5%vs LHP 402 8.8% 23.1% 13.7% 47

4 Liam Hicks 40 D +750 COOL 135 0.166 85.4 4.9% 10.0%vs LHP 376 15.8% 0.0% 9.1% 36

5 Xavier Edwards 35 D — COOL 176 0.128 86.9 5.2% 25.0%vs LHP 396 5.6% 0.0% 9.9% 41

6 Javier Sanoja 34 D +950 WARM 178 0.135 87.5 3.0% 20.0%vs LHP 385 5.4% 10.0% 9.6% 38

7 Jakob Marsee 33 D +850 · 185 0.099 86.7 4.5% 12.5%vs LHP 379 6.8% 7.7% 7.5% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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