TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ CWS

Suppressed air · 0.86×

ATH @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.86× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Colson Montgomery conv 27 · vs Lopez ⟷ Jonah Heim conv 22 · vs Burke → edge: Colson Montgomery

ATTACK Jacob Lopez LHP · ATH

leak 89

1.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · leakiest side of this game

1 Colson Montgomery +525 C ●●●●○

2 Miguel Vargas +575 C ●●●●○

3 Kyle Teel — D ●●●○○

FADE Sean Burke RHP · CWS

leak 80

1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jonah Heim — D ●●●○○

2 Henry Bolte — D ●●○○○

3 Shea Langeliers +700 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Colson Montgomery: 14.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Colson Montgomery ✶ COOL vs Lopez +525 0.254 · 89.1 · 8.2% 25.0% 28.9% F B O C 57

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Lopez Edge +575 0.236 · 90.3 · 8.4% 23.1% 22.7% F B O C 55

· ATH Shea Langeliers vs Burke +700 0.231 · 91.6 · 10.7% 9.1% 13.4% F B O C 50

· CWS Munetaka Murakami vs Lopez +700 0.307 · 94.2 · 10.0% 0.0% 19.2% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Burke Edge — 0.226 · 87.4 · 7.6% 25.0% 18.5% F B O D 43

· CWS Kyle Teel vs Lopez — 0.149 · 84.4 · 8.3% 20.0% 16.0% F B O D 42

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Lopez — 0.162 · 86.8 · 4.7% 18.2% 9.4% F B O D 38

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs Burke — 0.093 · 89.5 · 7.3% 20.0% 5.5% F B O D 32

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Lopez +850 0.182 · 89.1 · 7.0% 12.5% 10.2% F B O D 44

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom COOL vs Burke Edge +850 0.228 · 90.0 · 8.8% 0.0% 15.2% F B O D 45

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Lopez — 0.126 · 87.6 · 5.6% 9.1% 5.7% F B O D 35

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Lopez Edge — 0.114 · 87.8 · 4.6% 7.7% 7.0% F B O D 33

· CWS Braden Montgomery COOL vs Lopez Edge — 0.157 · 89.3 · 4.5% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 36

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Burke Edge +950 0.113 · 88.9 · 7.0% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 30

· ATH Jacob Wilson COOL vs Burke — 0.101 · 84.1 · 3.6% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 25

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Burke Edge — 0.076 · 86.4 · 2.7% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 20

· ATH Joshua Kuroda-Grauer vs Burke — 0.117 · 88.8 · — 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.5% ← leak BRK 38.4% OFF 3.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Shea Langeliers R

17.1% 16.1% 5.0% 14.9% C 50 +700

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Tyler Soderstrom L Edge

9.2% 18.5% 0.0% 10.0% D 45 +850

113

Jonah Heim S Edge

8.1% 3.0% 8.3% 6.9% D 43 —

207

Henry Bolte R

7.5% 8.8% 5.6% 7.6% D 32 —

213

Lawrence Butler L Edge

6.7% 10.3% 4.7% 6.8% D 30 +950

230

Jacob Wilson R

2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% D 25 —

234

Joshua Kuroda-Grauer R

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 24 —

239

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

0.0% 2.2% 1.9% 0.9% D 20 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.5% usage) carries Burke's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.0% ← leak BRK 30.3% OFF 9.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Colson Montgomery L

14.4% 14.0% 12.5% 14.0% C 57 +525

Munetaka Murakami

23.1% 15.6% 22.2% 20.3% C 57 +700

Miguel Vargas R Edge

16.1% 11.5% 13.8% 14.4% C 55 +575

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

107

Andrew Benintendi L

14.3% 6.2% 6.8% 10.5% D 44 +850

121

Kyle Teel L

19.0% 0.0% — 14.3% D 42 —

165

Tristan Peters L

6.2% 4.5% 0.0% 5.0% D 38 —

182

Braden Montgomery S Edge

5.1% 0.0% 4.8% 4.2% D 36 —

188

Sam Antonacci L

8.0% 7.5% 0.0% 6.7% D 35 —

198

Chase Meidroth R Edge

4.7% 6.2% 2.4% 4.7% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.0% usage) carries Lopez's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Heim Montgomery Vargas Teel Peters

Legend

attack side — vs Lopez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Colson Montgomery +525 · 57

Miguel Vargas +575 · 55

Jonah Heim — · 43

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown

Park 0.86× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Suppress · Combined 0.86× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sean Burke · RHP 1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shea Langeliers 50 C +700 WARM 67 0.231 91.6 10.7% 20.7%vs RHP 417 19.3% 9.1% 13.4% 21

2 Tyler Soderstrom 45 D +850 COOL 96 0.228 90.0 8.8% 17.4%vs RHP 403 13.9% 0.0% 15.2% 7

3 Jonah Heim 43 D — WARM 113 0.226 87.4 7.6% 10.5%vs RHP 411 16.7% 25.0% 18.5% 31

4 Henry Bolte 32 D — COOL 207 0.093 89.5 7.3% 0.0%vs RHP 422 13.3% 20.0% 5.5% 32

5 Lawrence Butler 30 D +950 WARM 213 0.113 88.9 7.0% 23.1%vs RHP 402 4.0% 0.0% 7.5% 22

6 Jacob Wilson 25 D — COOL 230 0.101 84.1 3.6% 11.5%vs RHP 375 4.7% 0.0% 6.7% 9

7 Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 24 D — · 234 0.117 88.8 — 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 30

8 Jeff Mcneil 20 D — COOL 239 0.076 86.4 2.7% 7.5%vs RHP 373 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 28

vs Jacob Lopez · LHP 1.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Colson Montgomery ✶ 57 C +525 COOL 29 0.254 89.1 8.2% 34.8%vs LHP 398 26.8% 25.0% 28.9% 35

2 Munetaka Murakami 57 C +700 · 30 0.307 94.2 10.0% 33.3%vs LHP 409 18.4% 0.0% 19.2% 0

3 Miguel Vargas 55 C +575 WARM 35 0.236 90.3 8.4% 28.6%vs LHP 389 21.3% 23.1% 22.7% 41

4 Andrew Benintendi 44 D +850 · 107 0.182 89.1 7.0% 14.5% 391 15.5% 12.5% 10.2% 27

5 Kyle Teel 42 D — · 121 0.149 84.4 8.3% 25.0% 389 20.0% 20.0% 16.0% 24

6 Tristan Peters 38 D — · 165 0.162 86.8 4.7% 7.7% 371 7.8% 18.2% 9.4% 35

7 Braden Montgomery 36 D — COOL 182 0.157 89.3 4.5% 12.5% 377 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 37

8 Sam Antonacci 35 D — COOL 188 0.126 87.6 5.6% 0.0%vs LHP 405 8.2% 9.1% 5.7% 39

9 Chase Meidroth 33 D — COOL 198 0.114 87.8 4.6% 12.5%vs LHP 376 6.6% 7.7% 7.0% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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