TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ SF

Neutral air · 1.04×

COL @ SF

Oracle Park · 10:15p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.80× Wind 15 mph slight_out 62°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

7:15p

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8:15p

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9:15p

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10:15p

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11:15p

conditions hold steady across the window · -1 FIT

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 28 · vs Gordon ⟷ Hunter Goodman conv 29 · vs Ray → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Tanner Gordon RHP · COL

leak 97

2.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.09 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +350 C ●●●●○

2 Bryce Eldridge +525 C ●●●○○

3 Heliot Ramos +475 C ●●●○○

FADE Robbie Ray LHP · SF

leak 73

1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hunter Goodman +350 C+ ●●●●○

2 Kyle Karros +750 D ●●●○○

3 Ezequiel Tovar +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 16.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ vs Ray Edge +350 0.295 · 91.1 · 12.4% 30.8% 26.3% F B O C+ 63

· SF Rafael Devers vs Gordon Edge +350 0.225 · 91.9 · 12.2% 30.8% 25.2% F B O C 57

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Gordon Edge +525 0.188 · 92.3 · 13.1% 28.6% 16.4% F B O C 52

· SF Heliot Ramos vs Gordon +475 0.208 · 92.2 · 14.3% 27.3% 17.0% F B O C 54

· SF Casey Schmitt vs Gordon +475 0.205 · 89.8 · 12.7% 16.7% 10.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· COL Kyle Karros HOT vs Ray Edge +750 0.178 · 89.7 · 8.9% 30.8% 12.8% F B O D 45

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Ray Edge +750 0.144 · 87.2 · 8.1% 16.7% 6.0% F B O D 38

· SF Drew Gilbert COOL vs Gordon Edge +950 0.137 · 85.3 · 5.2% 10.0% 9.2% F B O D 33

· COL Edouard Julien COOL vs Ray — 0.110 · 91.5 · 8.0% 11.1% 6.7% F B O D 34

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Gordon +475 0.194 · 88.4 · 10.9% 7.7% 10.1% F B O D 47

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Ray +950 0.205 · 85.1 · 7.3% 0.0% 16.5% F B O D 42

· COL Willi Castro vs Ray Edge +850 0.106 · 88.2 · 7.5% 9.1% 6.2% F B O D 33

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Ray +950 0.187 · 84.0 · 7.1% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 37

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Gordon Edge — 0.136 · 87.1 · 5.6% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 32

· COL Tyler Freeman COOL vs Ray Edge +950 0.082 · 87.9 · 3.2% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 25

· SF Luis Arraez vs Gordon Edge — 0.131 · 87.0 · 2.8% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 26

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Ray — 0.139 · 89.5 · 4.6% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.1% ← leak BRK 36.3% OFF 16.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Hunter Goodman R Edge

17.8% 17.3% 8.0% 16.5% C+ 63 +350

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

102

Kyle Karros R Edge

7.8% 5.4% 15.8% 7.9% D 45 +750

128

Jake Mccarthy L

5.9% 1.8% 12.5% 5.6% D 42 +950

170

Ezequiel Tovar R Edge

8.0% 9.4% 4.8% 8.2% D 38 +750

176

Tj Rumfield L

6.5% 2.5% 6.2% 5.3% D 37 +950

192

Edouard Julien L

5.8% 11.8% 6.7% 7.3% D 34 —

200

Willi Castro S Edge

5.6% 5.8% 7.5% 6.0% D 33 +850

216

Troy Johnston L

2.9% 4.1% 0.0% 2.6% D 30 —

232

Tyler Freeman R Edge

1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% D 25 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.1% usage) carries Ray's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.6% BRK 36.7% OFF 20.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Rafael Devers L Edge

14.4% 9.2% 10.2% 12.3% C 57 +350

Heliot Ramos R

15.4% 16.7% 14.3% 15.7% C 54 +475

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

14.1% 3.7% 20.0% 12.8% C 52 +525

Casey Schmitt R

9.4% 16.5% 18.2% 12.1% C 52 +475

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Willy Adames R

8.1% 8.2% 15.8% 8.7% D 47 +475

199

Drew Gilbert L Edge

2.3% 2.7% 0.0% 2.0% D 33 +950

208

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

3.6% 2.2% 0.0% 2.7% D 32 —

224

Luis Arraez L Edge

0.4% 0.0% 2.2% 0.6% D 26 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Gordon's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Karros Devers Ramos Eldridge Schmitt

Legend

attack side — vs Gordon fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Hunter Goodman +350 · 63

Rafael Devers +350 · 57

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.80× Wind 15 mph slight_out 62°F open

-1

↑

6 mph · out

55°F

7:15p · peak

-1

↑

6 mph · out

55°F

8:15p

-1

↑

6 mph · out

55°F

9:15p

-1

↑

6 mph · out

55°F

10:15p

-1

↑

6 mph · out

55°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 62°F, wind 15 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Robbie Ray · LHP 1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 63 C+ +350 WARM 12 0.295 91.1 12.4% 38.9%vs LHP 409 25.6% 30.8% 26.3% 30

2 Kyle Karros 45 D +750 HOT 102 0.178 89.7 8.9% 5.6%vs LHP 414 11.1% 30.8% 12.8% 32

3 Jake Mccarthy 42 D +950 WARM 128 0.205 85.1 7.3% 20.0%vs LHP 419 15.4% 0.0% 16.5% 47

4 Ezequiel Tovar 38 D +750 COOL 170 0.144 87.2 8.1% 4.0%vs LHP 410 8.3% 16.7% 6.0% 41

5 Tj Rumfield 37 D +950 COOL 176 0.187 84.0 7.1% 5.3%vs LHP 406 7.7% 0.0% 7.2% 43

6 Edouard Julien 34 D — COOL 192 0.110 91.5 8.0% 11.8% 400 4.1% 11.1% 6.7% 17

7 Willi Castro 33 D +850 WARM 200 0.106 88.2 7.5% 11.8%vs LHP 419 7.1% 9.1% 6.2% 24

8 Troy Johnston 30 D — COOL 216 0.139 89.5 4.6% 5.6%vs LHP 415 1.4% 0.0% 5.4% 24

9 Tyler Freeman 25 D +950 COOL 232 0.082 87.9 3.2% 14.3%vs LHP 369 2.4% 0.0% 6.4% 32

vs Tanner Gordon · RHP 2.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.09 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 57 C +350 WARM 31 0.225 91.9 12.2% 25.9%vs RHP 408 16.5% 30.8% 25.2% 39

2 Heliot Ramos 54 C +475 WARM 43 0.208 92.2 14.3% 20.0%vs RHP 404 12.5% 27.3% 17.0% 33

3 Bryce Eldridge 52 C +525 WARM 59 0.188 92.3 13.1% 20.7%vs RHP 398 22.2% 28.6% 16.4% 29

4 Casey Schmitt 52 C +475 · 60 0.205 89.8 12.7% 21.7%vs RHP 395 17.0% 16.7% 10.2% 41

5 Willy Adames 47 D +475 COOL 82 0.194 88.4 10.9% 20.7%vs RHP 390 14.6% 7.7% 10.1% 19

6 Drew Gilbert 33 D +950 COOL 199 0.137 85.3 5.2% 16.7%vs RHP 398 4.3% 10.0% 9.2% 18

7 Jung Hoo Lee 32 D — COOL 208 0.136 87.1 5.6% 8.9%vs RHP 378 4.8% 0.0% 7.2% 41

8 Luis Arraez 26 D — WARM 224 0.131 87.0 2.8% 3.6%vs RHP 367 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 51

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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