TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ BAL

Playable air · 1.10×

KC @ BAL

Camden Yards · 7:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 6 mph out 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

7:05p

+8 ↑

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+7 ↑

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best window is early — 7:05p at +10

Best of game Samuel Basallo conv 24 · vs Avila ⟷ Carter Jensen conv 20 · vs Young → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Luinder Avila RHP · KC

leak 80

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · leakiest side of this game

1 Samuel Basallo +370 C ●●●●○

2 Pete Alonso +305 C+ ●●●○○

3 Leody Taveras — D ●●○○○

FADE Brandon Young RHP · BAL

leak 49

0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · stingy — thin edge

1 Carter Jensen +320 C ●●●○○

2 Lane Thomas +525 D ●●○○○

3 Isaac Collins +575 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: Match 27.4% · 14D pace 16.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Samuel Basallo vs Avila Edge +370 0.204 · 91.3 · 9.1% 22.2% 25.2% F B O C 58

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ COOL vs Avila +305 0.217 · 94.1 · 9.2% 16.7% 27.4% F B O C+ 61

· KC Carter Jensen vs Young Edge +320 0.188 · 90.6 · 7.5% 20.0% 20.9% F B O C 53

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Avila — 0.187 · 92.0 · 8.1% 0.0% 20.4% F B O C 52

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Young Edge +280 0.195 · 93.7 · 9.8% 0.0% 14.5% F B O C 53

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Avila Edge +330 0.184 · 89.5 · 7.1% 0.0% 11.8% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· KC Lane Thomas HOT vs Young +525 0.144 · 88.4 · 5.9% 16.7% 9.0% F B O D 45

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Avila Edge — 0.128 · 87.2 · 5.5% 14.3% 10.1% F B O D 41

· KC Isaac Collins vs Young Edge +575 0.107 · 89.0 · 6.0% 10.0% 7.3% F B O D 39

· BAL Adley Rutschman COOL vs Avila Edge +475 0.184 · 89.6 · 7.3% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 48

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Avila Edge +425 0.150 · 86.5 · 8.9% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 48

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Young Edge +425 0.166 · 90.6 · 6.7% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 44

· KC Salvador Perez vs Young +350 0.154 · 89.0 · 7.7% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 42

· BAL Blaze Alexander COOL vs Avila +625 0.115 · 92.1 · 7.0% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 42

· BAL Taylor Ward COOL vs Avila +500 0.098 · 89.4 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.9% ← leak BRK 25.9% OFF 20.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Carter Jensen L Edge

10.0% 7.8% 8.6% 9.0% C 53 +320

Jac Caglianone L Edge

15.6% 17.3% 10.8% 15.3% C 53 +280

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Lane Thomas R

7.9% 0.0% 5.9% 6.1% D 45 +525

100

Michael Massey L Edge

9.3% 4.9% 3.0% 7.1% D 44 +425

120

Salvador Perez R

13.7% 6.4% 11.4% 10.4% D 42 +350

142

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.4% 8.3% 0.0% 5.7% D 39 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.9% usage) carries Young's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.9% BRK 37.0% OFF 10.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Pete Alonso R

16.0% 6.6% 13.3% 12.9% C+ 61 +305

Samuel Basallo L Edge

15.7% 8.9% 9.3% 12.2% C 58 +370

Coby Mayo R

8.3% 9.8% 11.1% 9.2% C 52 —

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

8.0% 6.9% 7.8% 7.6% C 50 +330

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Adley Rutschman S Edge

11.9% 2.2% 4.5% 8.0% D 48 +475

Colton Cowser L Edge

14.7% 16.7% 2.8% 11.9% D 48 +425

121

Blaze Alexander R

7.3% 6.0% 6.2% 6.8% D 42 +625

129

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.7% 10.3% 0.0% 4.8% D 41 —

141

Taylor Ward R

8.9% 0.0% 2.9% 5.8% D 39 +500

Read the columns: no single family leads Avila's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Jensen Alonso Basallo

Legend

attack side — vs Avila fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Samuel Basallo +370 · 58

Carter Jensen +320 · 53

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.10× Wind 6 mph out 71°F open

+10

↑

8 mph · out

76°F

7:05p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

77°F

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↑

5 mph · out

76°F

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↑

5 mph · out

75°F

10:05p

↑

5 mph · out

75°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 71°F, wind 6 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brandon Young · RHP 0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen 53 C +320 WARM 44 0.188 90.6 7.5% 19.3%vs RHP 393 15.9% 20.0% 20.9% 25

2 Jac Caglianone 53 C +280 COOL 49 0.195 93.7 9.8% 26.5%vs RHP 418 12.2% 0.0% 14.5% 31

3 Lane Thomas 45 D +525 HOT 95 0.144 88.4 5.9% 16.7%vs RHP 412 14.5% 16.7% 9.0% 29

4 Michael Massey 44 D +425 COOL 100 0.166 90.6 6.7% 10.7%vs RHP 398 7.0% 0.0% 10.1% 25

5 Salvador Perez 42 D +350 WARM 120 0.154 89.0 7.7% 15.7%vs RHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 26

6 Isaac Collins 39 D +575 WARM 142 0.107 89.0 6.0% 5.6%vs RHP 390 5.2% 10.0% 7.3% 24

vs Luinder Avila · RHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 61 C+ +305 COOL 17 0.217 94.1 9.2% 29.1%vs RHP 399 19.6% 16.7% 27.4% 26

2 Samuel Basallo 58 C +370 · 22 0.204 91.3 9.1% 28.3%vs RHP 399 15.2% 22.2% 25.2% 23

3 Coby Mayo 52 C — WARM 53 0.187 92.0 8.1% 10.7%vs RHP 403 13.9% 0.0% 20.4% 12

4 Gunnar Henderson 50 C +330 COOL 63 0.184 89.5 7.1% 16.4%vs RHP 388 16.7% 0.0% 11.8% 40

5 Adley Rutschman 48 D +475 COOL 71 0.184 89.6 7.3% 13.2%vs RHP 400 9.8% 0.0% 11.2% 27

6 Colton Cowser 48 D +425 WARM 72 0.150 86.5 8.9% 22.2%vs RHP 417 15.6% 0.0% 10.3% 11

7 Blaze Alexander 42 D +625 COOL 121 0.115 92.1 7.0% 10.5%vs RHP 392 5.0% 0.0% 8.5% 26

8 Leody Taveras 41 D — WARM 129 0.128 87.2 5.5% 8.8%vs RHP 410 1.6% 14.3% 10.1% 15

9 Taylor Ward 39 D +500 COOL 141 0.098 89.4 6.3% 5.8%vs RHP 393 5.4% 0.0% 7.8% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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