TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ TEX

Suppressed air · 0.98×

HOU @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 5 mph slight_out 80°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+8 ↑

7:05p

+10 ↑

8:05p

+12 ↑

9:05p

+12 ↑

10:05p

+10 ↑

11:05p

the 9:05p window peaks +12

Best of game Joc Pederson conv 26 · vs Brown ⟷ Christian Walker conv 18 · vs Quantrill → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK Hunter Brown RHP · HOU

leak 49

1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joc Pederson +265 D ●●●●○

2 Ezequiel Duran +850 D ●●○○○

3 Jake Burger +390 D ●●○○○

FADE Cal Quantrill RHP · TEX

leak 13

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.36 · stingy — thin edge

1 Christian Walker +330 C ●●●○○

2 Yainer Diaz +575 D ●●●○○

3 Brice Matthews +625 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: 18.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Quantrill +330 0.236 · 89.8 · 10.3% 16.7% 20.2% F B O C 54

· HOU Yordan Alvarez ✶ vs Quantrill Edge +225 0.300 · 94.8 · 13.8% 0.0% 23.1% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· TEX Joc Pederson vs Brown Edge +265 0.224 · 92.1 · 7.3% 28.6% 23.1% F B O D 49

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Quantrill +575 0.150 · 87.8 · 7.4% 22.2% 14.0% F B O D 40

· HOU Brice Matthews COOL vs Quantrill +625 0.134 · 87.4 · 9.6% 25.0% 10.7% F B O D 41

· HOU Cam Smith vs Quantrill +500 0.152 · 89.4 · 11.0% 18.2% 16.0% F B O D 45

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Brown +850 0.142 · 88.9 · 5.2% 18.2% 9.8% F B O D 36

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs Quantrill +475 0.164 · 86.8 · 7.9% 16.7% 10.2% F B O D 41

· TEX Jake Burger COOL vs Brown +390 0.187 · 90.1 · 6.8% 9.1% 14.3% F B O D 42

· TEX Josh Jung vs Brown +525 0.148 · 90.4 · 5.2% 11.1% 10.1% F B O D 36

· TEX Brandon Nimmo vs Brown Edge +500 0.156 · 92.5 · 7.9% 12.5% 8.0% F B O D 40

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Brown +400 0.212 · 88.7 · 6.2% 0.0% 19.1% F B O D 42

· TEX Alejandro Osuna vs Brown Edge — 0.042 · 87.4 · 1.8% 9.1% 6.0% F B O D 23

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Quantrill +525 0.162 · 85.5 · 8.0% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 36

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Brown Edge +700 0.141 · 87.7 · 5.8% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 35

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Quantrill — 0.105 · 86.1 · 3.8% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 76.9% ← leak OFF 18.8% BRK 4.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

18.2% 11.3% 23.8% 18.5% C 58 +225

Christian Walker R

9.3% 16.0% 11.8% 10.7% C 54 +330

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Cam Smith R

9.6% 20.0% 16.0% 12.1% D 45 +500

127

Brice Matthews R

14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% D 41 +625

128

Isaac Paredes R

7.4% 2.9% 4.6% 6.1% D 41 +475

134

Yainer Diaz R

10.8% 0.0% 2.0% 5.9% D 40 +575

163

Jose Altuve R

6.7% 0.0% 6.8% 6.2% D 36 +525

211

Christian Vazquez R

3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (76.9% usage) carries Quantrill's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 62.1% ← leak BRK 28.3% OFF 9.5% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Joc Pederson L Edge

15.6% 9.6% 4.8% 11.4% D 49 +265

112

Wyatt Langford R

6.2% 12.5% 8.3% 8.3% D 42 +400

116

Jake Burger R

7.6% 12.2% 11.5% 9.8% D 42 +390

137

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

10.5% 18.6% 16.2% 13.5% D 40 +500

166

Josh Jung R

7.8% 3.4% 0.0% 5.6% D 36 +525

169

Ezequiel Duran R

8.0% 5.5% 0.0% 6.0% D 36 +850

175

Evan Carter L Edge

9.3% 5.7% 0.0% 6.9% D 35 +700

222

Alejandro Osuna L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.7% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.1% usage) carries Brown's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Walker Smith Matthews Paredes Diaz Pederson Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Brown fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Joc Pederson +265 · 49

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 0.89× Wind 5 mph slight_out 80°F retractable

↑

15 mph · slight_out

95°F

7:05p

+10

↑

16 mph · slight_out

93°F

8:05p

+12

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17 mph · out

90°F

9:05p · peak

+12

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17 mph · out

88°F

10:05p

+10

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15 mph · out

86°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 80°F, wind 5 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Cal Quantrill · RHP 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.36 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 58 C +225 · 21 0.300 94.8 13.8% 25.9%vs RHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 23.1% 32

2 Christian Walker 54 C +330 COOL 39 0.236 89.8 10.3% 29.3%vs RHP 388 20.0% 16.7% 20.2% 33

3 Cam Smith 45 D +500 · 89 0.152 89.4 11.0% 19.1%vs RHP 415 11.6% 18.2% 16.0% 36

4 Brice Matthews 41 D +625 COOL 127 0.134 87.4 9.6% 15.0%vs RHP 403 11.4% 25.0% 10.7% 15

5 Isaac Paredes 41 D +475 · 128 0.164 86.8 7.9% 19.1%vs RHP 373 11.2% 16.7% 10.2% 41

6 Yainer Diaz 40 D +575 WARM 134 0.150 87.8 7.4% 21.7%vs RHP 387 8.6% 22.2% 14.0% 28

7 Jose Altuve 36 D +525 COOL 163 0.162 85.5 8.0% 26.5%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 34

8 Christian Vazquez 27 D — WARM 211 0.105 86.1 3.8% 11.1%vs RHP 373 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 10

vs Hunter Brown · RHP 1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson 49 D +265 · 67 0.224 92.1 7.3% 28.0%vs RHP 392 19.0% 28.6% 23.1% 15

2 Wyatt Langford 42 D +400 COOL 112 0.212 88.7 6.2% 20.7%vs RHP 400 15.1% 0.0% 19.1% 5

3 Jake Burger 42 D +390 COOL 116 0.187 90.1 6.8% 25.5%vs RHP 399 14.5% 9.1% 14.3% 27

4 Brandon Nimmo 40 D +500 WARM 137 0.156 92.5 7.9% 13.3%vs RHP 411 9.8% 12.5% 8.0% 17

5 Josh Jung 36 D +525 · 166 0.148 90.4 5.2% 16.3%vs RHP 386 11.0% 11.1% 10.1% 22

6 Ezequiel Duran 36 D +850 · 169 0.142 88.9 5.2% 16.7%vs RHP 383 12.0% 18.2% 9.8% 37

7 Evan Carter 35 D +700 COOL 175 0.141 87.7 5.8% 14.3%vs RHP 377 9.6% 0.0% 11.4% 13

8 Alejandro Osuna 23 D — WARM 222 0.042 87.4 1.8% 6.2%vs RHP 364 2.9% 9.1% 6.0% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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