TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ WSH

Neutral air · 1.03×

NYY @ WSH

Nationals Park · 6:45p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 2 mph cross 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

6:45p

+1 ↑

7:45p

+1 ↑

8:45p

+0 ↑

9:45p

+0 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 7:45p at +1

Best of game James Wood conv 38 · vs Weathers ⟷ Ben Rice conv 34 · vs Palmquist → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Ryan Weathers LHP · NYY

leak 86

1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 James Wood +320 B ●●●●●

2 Curtis Mead +390 C ●●○○○

3 Cj Abrams +575 C ●●○○○

FADE Carson Palmquist LHP

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.30 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice +280 C+ ●●●●●

2 Trent Grisham +400 D ●●○○○

3 Austin Wells +400 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: 22.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 41.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH James Wood ✶ COOL vs Weathers +320 0.267 · 95.3 · 16.0% 41.7% 34.9% F B O B 72

· — Ben Rice vs Palmquist +280 0.301 · 92.0 · 9.1% 41.7% 26.5% F B O C+ 63

· WSH Curtis Mead COOL vs Weathers Edge +390 0.239 · 88.2 · 11.2% 10.0% 18.8% F B O C 55

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Weathers +575 0.233 · 89.8 · 10.5% 0.0% 26.6% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· — Trent Grisham COOL vs Palmquist +400 0.177 · 90.9 · 7.9% 16.7% 12.8% F B O D 43

· WSH Daylen Lile HOT vs Weathers +850 0.162 · 87.7 · 9.0% 9.1% 9.1% F B O D 43

· — Austin Wells COOL vs Palmquist +400 0.080 · 88.8 · 5.6% 11.1% 5.6% F B O D 32

· — Jose Caballero vs Palmquist Edge +625 0.149 · 84.2 · 4.8% 0.0% 15.2% F B O D 32

· — Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Palmquist Edge +370 0.226 · 86.8 · 8.1% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 46

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Weathers Edge +700 0.174 · 89.3 · 7.8% 0.0% 13.4% F B O D 42

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Weathers Edge — 0.049 · 84.9 · 2.4% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 22

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Weathers Edge +950 0.143 · 88.6 · 8.3% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 40

· — Cody Bellinger COOL vs Palmquist +390 0.164 · 89.0 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 38

· WSH Jorbit Vivas COOL vs Weathers — 0.101 · 83.6 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 33

· — Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Palmquist +400 0.148 · 90.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 46.5% ← leak BRK 29.9% OFF 23.6% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

James Wood L

22.3% 25.7% 14.8% 22.5% B 72 +320

Neutral · 2

Curtis Mead R Edge

13.3% 10.2% 3.6% 11.0% C 55 +390

Cj Abrams L

11.5% 7.5% 10.0% 9.8% C 53 +575

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

104

Daylen Lile L

7.1% 10.8% 4.2% 7.5% D 43 +850

115

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

8.3% 0.0% 3.3% 5.1% D 42 +700

133

Jacob Young R Edge

7.0% 4.8% 4.0% 6.0% D 40 +950

183

Jorbit Vivas L

3.4% 4.9% 3.8% 3.9% D 33 —

225

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.5% usage) carries Weathers's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.3% BRK 27.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Ben Rice L

18.5% 9.7% 14.9% C+ 63 +280

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Paul Goldschmidt R Edge

14.9% 6.2% 11.9% D 46 +370

103

Trent Grisham L

12.0% 12.1% 11.1% D 43 +400

138

Ryan Mcmahon L

12.8% 5.6% 11.9% D 39 +400

147

Cody Bellinger L

3.5% 13.6% 6.7% D 38 +390

191

Jose Caballero R Edge

— — — D 32 +625

197

Austin Wells L

8.4% 3.7% 6.3% D 32 +400

Read the columns: no single family leads Palmquist's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Wood Mead Abrams Rice Grisham

Legend

attack side — vs Weathers fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

James Wood +320 · 72

Ben Rice +280 · 63

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 1.03× Wind 2 mph cross 71°F open

↑

9 mph · cross

74°F

6:45p

↑

4 mph · cross

76°F

7:45p · peak

↑

3 mph · cross

76°F

8:45p

↑

3 mph · cross

75°F

9:45p

↑

2 mph · in

75°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.03× 71°F, wind 2 mph NNW (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Weathers · LHP 1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 72 B +320 COOL 1 0.267 95.3 16.0% 36.8%vs LHP 412 28.0% 41.7% 34.9% 30

2 Curtis Mead 55 C +390 COOL 31 0.239 88.2 11.2% 20.0%vs LHP 400 21.2% 10.0% 18.8% 34

3 Cj Abrams 53 C +575 · 41 0.233 89.8 10.5% 15.8%vs LHP 390 33.3% 0.0% 26.6% 32

4 Daylen Lile 43 D +850 HOT 104 0.162 87.7 9.0% 0.0%vs LHP 402 8.3% 9.1% 9.1% 37

5 Keibert Ruiz 42 D +700 · 115 0.174 89.3 7.8% 18.2%vs LHP 378 11.1% 0.0% 13.4% 25

6 Jacob Young 40 D +950 COOL 133 0.143 88.6 8.3% 5.6%vs LHP 391 8.1% 0.0% 9.1% 16

7 Jorbit Vivas 33 D — COOL 183 0.101 83.6 6.7% 7.5% 392 4.1% 0.0% 7.8% 25

8 Nasim Nunez 22 D — WARM 225 0.049 84.9 2.4% 10.0%vs LHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 19

vs Carson Palmquist · LHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.30 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 63 C+ +280 WARM 10 0.301 92.0 9.1% 43.8%vs LHP 389 27.4% 41.7% 26.5% 31

2 Paul Goldschmidt 46 D +370 COOL 84 0.226 86.8 8.1% 36.4%vs LHP 391 17.3% 0.0% 13.7% 19

3 Trent Grisham 43 D +400 COOL 103 0.177 90.9 7.9% 12.5%vs LHP 388 9.1% 16.7% 12.8% 13

4 Ryan Mcmahon 39 D +400 COOL 138 0.148 90.6 7.8% 0.0%vs LHP 380 50.0% 0.0% 6.8% 4

5 Cody Bellinger 38 D +390 COOL 147 0.164 89.0 6.2% 16.7%vs LHP 379 10.6% 0.0% 8.1% 29

6 Jose Caballero 32 D +625 WARM 191 0.149 84.2 4.8% 36.4%vs LHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 21

7 Austin Wells 32 D +400 COOL 197 0.080 88.8 5.6% 7.7%vs LHP 377 8.3% 11.1% 5.6% 17

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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