TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ NYM

Playable air · 1.08×

BOS @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 11 mph slight_out 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

7:15p

+4 ↑

8:15p

+3 ↑

9:15p

+2 ↑

10:15p

+1 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +6

Best of game Juan Soto conv 31 · vs Gray ⟷ Caleb Durbin conv 20 · vs McLean → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Sonny Gray RHP · BOS

leak 86

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · leakiest side of this game

1 Juan Soto +265 C+ ●●●●●

2 Mark Vientos — D ●●●○○

3 Carson Benge +575 D ●●○○○

FADE Nolan McLean RHP · NYM

leak 76

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · stingy — thin edge

1 Caleb Durbin +750 D ●●●○○

2 Masataka Yoshida +850 D ●●○○○

3 Jarren Duran +525 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: 14.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Juan Soto ✶ COOL vs Gray Edge +265 0.266 · 92.8 · 10.0% 30.8% 32.2% F B O C+ 62

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs McLean +750 0.156 · 84.8 · 4.3% 25.0% 14.1% F B O D 38

· NYM Mark Vientos vs Gray — 0.184 · 89.5 · 8.3% 16.7% 20.8% F B O D 47

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Gray Edge +575 0.141 · 89.6 · 7.4% 15.4% 8.9% F B O D 40

· BOS Masataka Yoshida vs McLean Edge +850 0.105 · 88.5 · 3.6% 14.3% 8.8% F B O D 32

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs McLean Edge +525 0.156 · 89.6 · 8.4% 11.1% 11.8% F B O D 44

· NYM Luis Torrens vs Gray — 0.101 · 87.8 · 5.3% 12.5% 8.0% F B O D 34

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs McLean +575 0.166 · 86.1 · 5.7% 8.3% 10.9% F B O D 39

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Gray Edge +750 0.174 · — · 7.6% 0.0% 18.9% F B O D 38

· NYM Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Gray +400 0.169 · 90.4 · 10.6% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 42

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs McLean Edge +400 0.164 · 89.8 · 8.4% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 42

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Gray +575 0.123 · 90.2 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 36

· BOS Carlos Narvaez COOL vs McLean +575 0.076 · 91.5 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 31

· NYM Brett Baty vs Gray Edge +700 0.086 · 89.3 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 63.5% ← leak BRK 29.4% OFF 6.5% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jarren Duran L Edge

14.7% 6.2% 10.4% 11.4% D 44 +525

119

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

12.2% 11.8% 9.1% 11.4% D 42 +400

139

Ceddanne Rafaela R

4.0% 5.5% 11.1% 5.4% D 39 +575

153

Caleb Durbin R

3.2% 1.8% 4.0% 2.9% D 38 +750

192

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

2.0% 0.0% 3.3% 1.9% D 32 +850

201

Carlos Narvaez R

8.1% 6.1% 0.0% 6.5% D 31 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.5% usage) carries McLean's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.2% ← leak BRK 36.7% OFF 4.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Juan Soto L Edge

18.0% 12.5% 5.4% 14.3% C+ 62 +265

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Mark Vientos R

10.2% 12.5% 8.3% 10.4% D 47 —

111

Francisco Alvarez R

16.9% 14.5% 17.6% 16.1% D 42 +400

136

Carson Benge L Edge

7.7% 8.8% 7.5% 8.0% D 40 +575

144

A.J. Ewing L Edge

11.3% 8.3% 0.0% 8.4% D 38 +750

167

Bo Bichette R

5.1% 11.9% 0.0% 6.8% D 36 +575

179

Luis Torrens R

4.4% 5.3% 0.0% 4.0% D 34 —

186

Brett Baty L Edge

7.8% 14.0% 2.8% 8.2% D 33 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.2% usage) carries Gray's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Durbin Soto Vientos

Legend

attack side — vs Gray fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Juan Soto +265 · 62

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 11 mph slight_out 73°F open

↑

10 mph · slight_out

84°F

7:15p · peak

↑

9 mph · slight_out

83°F

8:15p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

82°F

9:15p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

80°F

10:15p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

79°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.08× 73°F, wind 11 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nolan McLean · RHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jarren Duran 44 D +525 COOL 97 0.156 89.6 8.4% 34.3%vs RHP 398 14.3% 11.1% 11.8% 21

2 Wilyer Abreu 42 D +400 · 119 0.164 89.8 8.4% 11.8%vs RHP 402 11.5% 0.0% 9.6% 26

3 Ceddanne Rafaela 39 D +575 COOL 139 0.166 86.1 5.7% 14.6%vs RHP 372 9.3% 8.3% 10.9% 40

4 Caleb Durbin 38 D +750 COOL 153 0.156 84.8 4.3% 24.0%vs RHP 373 9.6% 25.0% 14.1% 33

5 Masataka Yoshida 32 D +850 WARM 192 0.105 88.5 3.6% 5.9%vs RHP 390 5.9% 14.3% 8.8% 16

6 Carlos Narvaez 31 D +575 COOL 201 0.076 91.5 6.7% 8.7%vs RHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 14

vs Sonny Gray · RHP 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 62 C+ +265 COOL 15 0.266 92.8 10.0% 33.3%vs RHP 399 21.8% 30.8% 32.2% 34

2 Mark Vientos 47 D — WARM 74 0.184 89.5 8.3% 17.6%vs RHP 409 13.6% 16.7% 20.8% 9

3 Francisco Alvarez 42 D +400 COOL 111 0.169 90.4 10.6% 23.3%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 22

4 Carson Benge 40 D +575 COOL 136 0.141 89.6 7.4% 14.5%vs RHP 399 10.1% 15.4% 8.9% 41

5 A.J. Ewing 38 D +750 WARM 144 0.174 — 7.6% 16.0%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 31

6 Bo Bichette 36 D +575 COOL 167 0.123 90.2 6.9% 10.7%vs RHP 385 9.8% 0.0% 8.0% 42

7 Luis Torrens 34 D — WARM 179 0.101 87.8 5.3% 7.1%vs RHP 394 5.9% 12.5% 8.0% 19

8 Brett Baty 33 D +700 WARM 186 0.086 89.3 7.6% 7.3%vs RHP 415 3.4% 0.0% 7.4% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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