4
HRs allowed
3.5%
HR rate (pool)
6.4%
Overall HR/FB
2.24
FIP
3.12
xFIP
-0.87
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
7
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 7th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
65.6%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.2 EV · 407 ft
max EV allowed 113.4
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR ↑
15D · 1 HR ↑
30D · 2 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Shohei Ohtani.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
44.6%
84.6
20.4°
4
-1.7
Sweeper Breaking
28.8%
78.7
17.5°
0
-3.0
Curveball Breaking
10.6%
80.0
1.4°
0
+0.1
Splitter Offspeed
8.6%
84.1
-0.9°
0
+1.5
Sinker Hard
5.8%
83.8
7.2°
0
-0.4
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups113
HRs allowed (pool)4
Pool HR rate3.5%
Pool HR/game day0.31
Top-15 matchups1
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB6.4% 7
HR/9—
FIP2.24 3
xFIP3.12
FIP − xFIP-0.87 7
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed65.6%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 44.6% usage
-1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.6 mph
Avg launch angle20.4°
HRs allowed4
Pitches634
Sweeper
Breaking · 28.8% usage
-3.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.7 mph
Avg launch angle17.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches409
Curveball
Breaking · 10.6% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.0 mph
Avg launch angle1.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches150
Splitter
Offspeed · 8.6% usage
+1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.1 mph
Avg launch angle-0.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches122
Sinker
Hard · 5.8% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.8 mph
Avg launch angle7.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches82
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Shohei Ohtani.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
4 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.2 EV · 407 ft
2 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 13 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-03
7
1
106.1
2026-06-24
9
0
108.0
2026-06-17
8
0
108.8
2026-06-10
8
1
104.6
2026-06-03
9
0
105.9
2026-05-27
9
0
99.6
2026-05-20
9
0
107.6
2026-05-13
9
0
109.3
2026-05-05
9
1
113.4
2026-04-28
9
0
106.4
2026-04-22
9
1
110.3
2026-04-08
9
0
111.2
2026-03-31
9
0
108.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Shohei Ohtani isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.