TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ MIL

Suppressed air · 0.91×

SEA @ MIL

American Family Field · 7:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 3 mph in 74°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:40p

-6 ↑

7:40p

-5 ↑

8:40p

-1 ↑

9:40p

+0 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +0

Best of game Jackson Chourio conv 21 · vs Gilbert ⟷ Randy Arozarena conv 21 · vs May → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Logan Gilbert RHP · SEA

leak 81

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.17 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Chourio +425 C ●●●○○

2 Jake Bauers +400 C ●●○○○

3 Christian Yelich +700 D ●●○○○

FADE Dustin May RHP · STL

leak 49

0.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · stingy — thin edge

1 Randy Arozarena +575 D ●●●○○

2 Julio Rodríguez +500 D ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone +500 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 13.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Gilbert +425 0.194 · 92.0 · 11.4% 23.1% 19.5% F B O C 51

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ vs Gilbert Edge +400 0.225 · 92.5 · 11.7% 16.7% 15.7% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· — Randy Arozarena COOL vs May +575 0.181 · 90.9 · 7.2% 25.0% 17.6% F B O D 44

· — Julio Rodríguez vs May +500 0.168 · 90.0 · 7.8% 25.0% 15.2% F B O D 43

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Gilbert Edge +700 0.137 · 88.8 · 9.9% 20.0% 8.2% F B O D 40

· MIL William Contreras HOT vs Gilbert +575 0.124 · 90.0 · 8.8% 16.7% 9.0% F B O D 38

· — Dominic Canzone COOL vs May Edge +500 0.235 · 91.6 · 9.4% 8.3% 14.6% F B O D 49

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Gilbert Edge +950 0.085 · 86.4 · 5.9% 14.3% 6.6% F B O D 29

· — Josh Naylor vs May Edge +750 0.107 · 87.7 · 5.8% 10.0% 9.8% F B O D 30

· — Cole Young COOL vs May Edge +750 0.143 · 88.9 · 5.7% 9.1% 8.0% F B O D 34

· — Cal Raleigh vs May Edge +390 0.142 · 89.0 · 9.2% 9.1% 7.4% F B O D 39

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Gilbert Edge +625 0.180 · 90.5 · 8.9% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 42

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Gilbert Edge +700 0.149 · 92.6 · 11.3% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.4% ← leak BRK 32.1% OFF 21.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.6% 12.0% 13.9% 13.8% C 54 +400

Jackson Chourio R

13.3% 14.8% 3.1% 12.5% C 51 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

111

Brice Turang L Edge

9.4% 9.8% 1.7% 8.1% D 42 +625

128

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

15.7% 10.6% 6.2% 12.9% D 41 +700

135

Christian Yelich L Edge

9.7% 9.7% 11.5% 9.9% D 40 +700

146

William Contreras R

8.4% 9.5% 0.0% 8.0% D 38 +575

203

David Hamilton L Edge

3.1% 6.5% 0.0% 3.5% D 29 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.4% usage) carries Gilbert's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 67.2% ← leak BRK 25.7% OFF 7.0% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Dominic Canzone L Edge

15.9% 11.8% 8.5% 13.0% D 49 +500

Randy Arozarena R

7.8% 7.5% 7.0% 7.6% D 44 +575

100

Julio Rodríguez R

9.4% 8.0% 9.1% 9.0% D 43 +500

140

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.3% 16.0% 14.0% 12.4% D 39 +390

176

Cole Young L Edge

4.2% 8.9% 1.6% 4.7% D 34 +750

195

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.6% 8.1% 1.5% 4.9% D 30 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (67.2% usage) carries May's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Yelich Arozarena Rodríguez

Legend

attack side — vs Gilbert fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jackson Chourio +425 · 51

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.91× Wind 3 mph in 74°F retractable

-5

↑

3 mph · in

71°F

6:40p

-6

↑

3 mph · in

69°F

7:40p

-5

↑

4 mph · cross

67°F

8:40p

-1

↑

4 mph · slight_out

66°F

9:40p

↑

4 mph · out

64°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.91× 74°F, wind 3 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Gilbert · RHP 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.17 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 54 C +400 · 39 0.225 92.5 11.7% 30.8%vs RHP 401 19.8% 16.7% 15.7% 27

2 Jackson Chourio 51 C +425 · 48 0.194 92.0 11.4% 18.8%vs RHP 401 16.3% 23.1% 19.5% 31

3 Brice Turang 42 D +625 COOL 111 0.180 90.5 8.9% 25.8%vs RHP 407 10.8% 0.0% 11.9% 19

4 Garrett Mitchell 41 D +700 COOL 128 0.149 92.6 11.3% 23.5%vs RHP 415 7.0% 0.0% 9.6% 20

5 Christian Yelich 40 D +700 WARM 135 0.137 88.8 9.9% 16.7%vs RHP 401 8.3% 20.0% 8.2% 21

6 William Contreras 38 D +575 HOT 146 0.124 90.0 8.8% 16.2%vs RHP 415 9.6% 16.7% 9.0% 34

7 David Hamilton 29 D +950 COOL 203 0.085 86.4 5.9% 5.9%vs RHP 383 4.9% 14.3% 6.6% 22

vs Dustin May · RHP 0.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 49 D +500 COOL 62 0.235 91.6 9.4% 26.7%vs RHP 402 15.8% 8.3% 14.6% 31

2 Randy Arozarena 44 D +575 COOL 93 0.181 90.9 7.2% 25.4%vs RHP 384 14.0% 25.0% 17.6% 33

3 Julio Rodríguez 43 D +500 WARM 100 0.168 90.0 7.8% 19.0%vs RHP 405 16.7% 25.0% 15.2% 29

4 Cal Raleigh 39 D +390 WARM 140 0.142 89.0 9.2% 11.4%vs RHP 390 13.0% 9.1% 7.4% 20

5 Cole Young 34 D +750 COOL 176 0.143 88.9 5.7% 17.6%vs RHP 385 11.7% 9.1% 8.0% 36

6 Josh Naylor 30 D +750 WARM 195 0.107 87.7 5.8% 11.7%vs RHP 392 6.8% 10.0% 9.8% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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