TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.24×

LAD @ COL

Coors Field · 8:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 10 mph slight_out 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:40p

+4 ↑

7:40p

+3 ↑

8:40p

+3 ↑

9:40p

+5 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +5

Best of game Willi Castro conv 10 · vs Sasaki ⟷ Shohei Ohtani conv 30 · vs Freeland → edge: Shohei Ohtani

ATTACK Roki Sasaki RHP · LAD

leak 91

1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.96 · leakiest side of this game

1 Willi Castro +525 D ●●○○○

2 Mickey Moniak +350 C+ ●○○○○

3 Jake Mccarthy +850 D ●○○○○

FADE Kyle Freeland LHP · COL

leak 25

1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.58 · stingy — thin edge

1 Shohei Ohtani +205 B ●●●●●

2 Max Muncy +290 C+ ●●●●○

3 Andy Pages +320 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shohei Ohtani: 16.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Shohei Ohtani ✶ vs Freeland +205 0.261 · 93.5 · 13.1% 30.8% 29.1% F B O B 71

· LAD Max Muncy vs Freeland +290 0.249 · 90.5 · 12.0% 26.3% 27.4% F B O C+ 66

· LAD Andy Pages vs Freeland Edge +320 0.190 · 88.9 · 9.0% 23.1% 22.9% F B O C 55

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Freeland Edge +390 0.172 · 90.5 · 8.8% 15.4% 10.9% F B O C 50

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Sasaki Edge +350 0.268 · 89.3 · 10.4% 0.0% 19.1% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· COL Willi Castro vs Sasaki Edge +525 0.153 · 87.8 · 9.0% 9.1% 10.9% F B O D 48

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Freeland +425 0.136 · 88.8 · 7.9% 8.3% 7.0% F B O D 43

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Sasaki Edge +850 0.197 · 84.7 · 6.9% 0.0% 14.3% F B O D 48

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Sasaki Edge +700 0.156 · 83.8 · 6.6% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 43

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Freeland Edge +350 0.145 · 89.8 · 9.4% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 43

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Sasaki +700 0.123 · 87.3 · 7.9% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 42

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Freeland +425 0.164 · 89.7 · 9.5% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 48

· COL Troy Johnston vs Sasaki Edge — 0.109 · 89.6 · 4.7% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.1% ← leak BRK 32.2% OFF 13.7% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Shohei Ohtani L

20.0% 10.9% 16.4% 16.6% B 71 +205

Neutral · 3

Max Muncy L

16.4% 14.8% 8.8% 14.1% C+ 66 +290

Andy Pages R Edge

7.7% 8.4% 8.3% 8.0% C 55 +320

Mookie Betts R Edge

9.0% 3.1% 8.6% 7.6% C 50 +390

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Freddie Freeman L

8.8% 8.5% 8.2% 8.7% D 48 +425

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

8.1% 11.1% 6.9% 8.5% D 43 +350

106

Kyle Tucker L

8.9% 3.1% 1.3% 6.0% D 43 +425

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.1% usage) carries Freeland's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.5% ← leak OFF 36.4% BRK 21.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Mickey Moniak L Edge

10.0% 2.0% 21.3% 10.6% C+ 60 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.0% 5.9% 1.3% 4.9% D 48 +850

Willi Castro S Edge

10.9% 5.2% 5.7% 8.3% D 48 +525

101

Tj Rumfield L Edge

5.3% 5.5% 1.8% 4.2% D 43 +700

115

Ezequiel Tovar R

6.1% 7.1% 6.7% 6.4% D 42 +700

165

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.4% 1.6% 2.4% 2.2% D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.5% usage) carries Sasaki's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ohtani Muncy Pages Betts

Legend

attack side — vs Sasaki fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Shohei Ohtani +205 · 71

Max Muncy +290 · 66

Andy Pages +320 · 55

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.03× Wind 10 mph slight_out 83°F open

↑

10 mph · cross

81°F

6:40p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

78°F

7:40p

↑

2 mph · out

75°F

8:40p

↑

2 mph · out

73°F

9:40p

↑

4 mph · out

72°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.24× 83°F, wind 10 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kyle Freeland · LHP 1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.58 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 71 B +205 · 3 0.261 93.5 13.1% 30.8%vs LHP 405 20.5% 30.8% 29.1% 35

2 Max Muncy 66 C+ +290 · 6 0.249 90.5 12.0% 25.0%vs LHP 412 19.5% 26.3% 27.4% 41

3 Andy Pages 55 C +320 WARM 31 0.190 88.9 9.0% 21.1%vs LHP 390 14.5% 23.1% 22.9% 37

4 Mookie Betts 50 C +390 · 54 0.172 90.5 8.8% 7.7%vs LHP 390 10.7% 15.4% 10.9% 39

5 Freddie Freeman 48 D +425 COOL 72 0.164 89.7 9.5% 13.3%vs LHP 398 10.6% 0.0% 9.4% 35

6 Teoscar Hernandez 43 D +350 WARM 99 0.145 89.8 9.4% 18.2%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 22

7 Kyle Tucker 43 D +425 COOL 106 0.136 88.8 7.9% 6.5%vs LHP 392 7.6% 8.3% 7.0% 35

vs Roki Sasaki · RHP 1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.96 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mickey Moniak 60 C+ +350 · 17 0.268 89.3 10.4% 23.3%vs RHP 417 16.7% 0.0% 19.1% 22

2 Jake Mccarthy 48 D +850 COOL 66 0.197 84.7 6.9% 15.0%vs RHP 416 11.8% 0.0% 14.3% 39

3 Willi Castro 48 D +525 · 73 0.153 87.8 9.0% 16.4%vs RHP 411 11.5% 9.1% 10.9% 29

4 Tj Rumfield 43 D +700 COOL 101 0.156 83.8 6.6% 14.8%vs RHP 410 5.9% 0.0% 10.9% 30

5 Ezequiel Tovar 42 D +700 COOL 115 0.123 87.3 7.9% 14.8%vs RHP 408 7.4% 0.0% 9.8% 20

6 Troy Johnston 36 D — WARM 165 0.109 89.6 4.7% 6.8%vs RHP 415 1.1% 0.0% 8.1% 12

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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