TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.90×

LAA @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 8:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.19× Wind 15 mph out 93°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+23 ↑

7:10p

+21 ↑

8:10p

+21 ↑

9:10p

+19 ↑

10:10p

+18 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +23

Best of game Mike Trout conv 18 · vs Proxy ⟷ Cam Smith conv 27 · vs Ureña → edge: Mike Trout

ATTACK HOU Bullpen Proxy · HOU

leak 62

1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mike Trout +350 C+ ●●●○○

2 Josh Lowe +500 C ●●○○○

3 Zach Neto +425 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Walbert Ureña RHP · LAA

leak 11

0.51 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.42 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cam Smith +700 C ●●●●○

2 Christian Walker +500 C ●●○○○

3 Jeremy Peña +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Mike Trout: Match 21.3% · 14D pace 15.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Cam Smith vs Ureña +700 0.172 · 89.3 · 7.7% 33.3% 20.8% F B O C 54

· LAA Mike Trout ✶ COOL vs Proxy +350 0.199 · 90.2 · 15.9% 15.4% 21.3% F B O C+ 68

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Proxy +500 0.147 · 89.5 · 8.9% 15.4% 13.7% F B O C 53

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Ureña +500 0.213 · 89.4 · 7.0% 10.0% 16.4% F B O C 55

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Proxy +425 0.186 · 89.3 · 11.7% 7.7% 13.8% F B O C+ 60

· HOU Yordan Alvarez vs Ureña Edge +265 0.299 · 94.5 · 9.6% 0.0% 18.3% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· HOU Jeremy Peña COOL vs Ureña +700 0.189 · 88.3 · 5.3% 9.1% 15.1% F B O D 49

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Ureña +525 0.163 · 86.1 · 5.3% 10.0% 11.3% F B O D 46

· LAA Nolan Schanuel vs Proxy — 0.113 · 87.6 · 2.4% 8.3% 9.0% F B O D 39

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Ureña +950 0.121 · 85.9 · 3.1% 0.0% 15.1% F B O D 37

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Ureña +750 0.151 · 85.1 · 5.1% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 40

· HOU Yainer Diaz COOL vs Ureña — 0.142 · 87.7 · 5.2% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 43

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Proxy — 0.122 · 87.6 · 6.9% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 45

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Proxy +700 0.131 · 88.0 · 6.5% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 46

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for HOU Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 52.8% ← leak OFF 32.1% BRK 15.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

17.8% 10.0% 22.7% 17.6% C+ 61 +265

Christian Walker R

8.1% 13.9% 10.4% 9.5% C 55 +500

Cam Smith R

9.5% 17.2% 14.9% 11.5% C 54 +700

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jeremy Peña R

4.1% 10.0% 6.9% 5.4% D 49 +700

Isaac Paredes R

7.3% 1.9% 3.1% 5.4% D 46 +525

105

Yainer Diaz R

6.1% 6.5% 3.0% 5.1% D 43 —

131

Jose Altuve R

5.8% 0.0% 4.8% 5.0% D 40 +750

153

Christian Vazquez R

2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% D 37 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.8% usage) carries Ureña's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Trout Lowe Walker Smith

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Cam Smith +700 · 54

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.19× Wind 15 mph out 93°F retractable

+23

↑

15 mph · out

94°F

7:10p · peak

+21

↑

14 mph · out

90°F

8:10p

+21

↑

14 mph · out

87°F

9:10p

+19

↑

13 mph · out

84°F

10:10p

+18

↑

12 mph · out

83°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.90× 93°F, wind 15 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs HOU Bullpen Proxy 1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout ✶ 68 C+ +350 COOL 7 0.199 90.2 15.9% 18.7% 409 15.4% 15.4% 21.3% 30

2 Zach Neto 60 C+ +425 COOL 25 0.186 89.3 11.7% 13.6% 402 15.1% 7.7% 13.8% 29

3 Josh Lowe 53 C +500 WARM 56 0.147 89.5 8.9% 12.9% 397 10.8% 15.4% 13.7% 16

4 Vaughn Grissom 46 D +700 COOL 108 0.131 88.0 6.5% 9.5% 390 8.5% 0.0% 9.2% 27

5 Oswald Peraza 45 D — WARM 120 0.122 87.6 6.9% 12.7% 386 5.6% 0.0% 9.6% 15

6 Nolan Schanuel 39 D — · 168 0.113 87.6 2.4% 8.2% 375 6.6% 8.3% 9.0% 36

vs Walbert Ureña · RHP 0.51 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.42 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 61 C+ +265 · 14 0.299 94.5 9.6% 26.7%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 18.3% 30

2 Christian Walker 55 C +500 COOL 33 0.213 89.4 7.0% 25.7%vs RHP 392 17.9% 10.0% 16.4% 26

3 Cam Smith 54 C +700 WARM 38 0.172 89.3 7.7% 19.2%vs RHP 408 13.5% 33.3% 20.8% 18

4 Jeremy Peña 49 D +700 COOL 58 0.189 88.3 5.3% 29.5%vs RHP 384 14.9% 9.1% 15.1% 31

5 Isaac Paredes 46 D +525 COOL 85 0.163 86.1 5.3% 17.1%vs RHP 379 11.8% 10.0% 11.3% 36

6 Yainer Diaz 43 D — COOL 105 0.142 87.7 5.2% 25.8%vs RHP 398 10.0% 0.0% 10.9% 17

7 Jose Altuve 40 D +750 COOL 131 0.151 85.1 5.1% 22.0%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 27

8 Christian Vazquez 37 D +950 WARM 153 0.121 85.9 3.1% 15.6%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 10

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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