TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.23×

MIA @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:05p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.12× Wind 6 mph cross 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

6:05p

+6 ↑

7:05p

+5 ↑

8:05p

+6 ↑

9:05p

+6 ↑

10:05p

the 6:05p window peaks +6

Best of game Heriberto Hernández conv 17 · vs Nola ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 26 · vs Alcantara → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Aaron Nola RHP · PHI

leak 93

2.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.41 · leakiest side of this game

1 Heriberto Hernández +370 C ●●●○○

2 Owen Caissie +425 C+ ●●●○○

3 Javier Sanoja +950 D ●●○○○

FADE Sandy Alcantara RHP · MIA

leak 52

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber +205 C+ ●●●●○

2 Bryce Harper +350 C ●●○○○

3 Brandon Marsh +625 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 17.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Alcantara Edge +205 0.287 · 93.2 · 9.9% 15.4% 36.4% F B O C+ 69

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Nola +370 0.225 · 91.6 · 11.0% 0.0% 34.2% F B O C 59

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Nola Edge +425 0.207 · 91.3 · 12.1% 10.0% 23.4% F B O C+ 62

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Alcantara Edge +350 0.235 · 90.2 · 7.8% 7.7% 19.4% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Alcantara Edge +625 0.165 · 89.6 · 6.9% 8.3% 11.8% F B O D 48

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Nola +950 0.140 · 86.6 · 4.8% 10.0% 10.0% F B O D 44

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Alcantara +700 0.149 · 88.4 · 5.9% 9.1% 10.8% F B O D 45

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Alcantara +850 0.140 · 90.5 · 5.7% 9.1% 9.5% F B O D 44

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Nola Edge +625 0.106 · 87.1 · 5.8% 9.1% 9.3% F B O D 42

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Alcantara Edge +575 0.153 · 89.4 · 5.8% 7.7% 9.3% F B O D 43

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Nola +700 0.142 · 89.1 · 7.5% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 47

· PHI J.T. Realmuto COOL vs Alcantara +750 0.121 · 89.7 · 5.0% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 37

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Nola Edge — 0.101 · 87.0 · 5.8% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 40

· PHI Justin Crawford vs Alcantara Edge — 0.092 · 87.1 · 2.8% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.1% ← leak BRK 33.8% OFF 16.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Owen Caissie L Edge

17.1% 9.8% 18.8% 15.4% C+ 62 +425

Heriberto Hernández R

11.9% 13.4% 15.8% 12.7% C 59 +370

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Otto Lopez R

9.0% 3.9% 1.5% 6.0% D 47 +700

Javier Sanoja R

2.5% 3.2% 0.0% 2.4% D 44 +950

118

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.3% 1.9% 7.9% 3.6% D 42 +625

134

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.3% 2.3% 2.7% 3.5% D 40 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.1% usage) carries Nola's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.4% ← leak OFF 20.3% BRK 19.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

17.1% 30.0% 14.1% 17.6% C+ 69 +205

Bryce Harper L Edge

11.0% 6.0% 14.2% 11.1% C 58 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brandon Marsh L Edge

7.2% 3.8% 13.3% 8.4% D 48 +625

Trea Turner R

8.2% 2.4% 4.4% 6.2% D 45 +700

Alec Bohm R

4.7% 11.1% 6.3% 5.8% D 44 +850

102

Bryson Stott L Edge

7.9% 4.8% 3.8% 6.1% D 43 +575

154

J.T. Realmuto R

3.7% 4.3% 6.8% 4.5% D 37 +750

183

Justin Crawford L Edge

2.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1.4% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.4% usage) carries Alcantara's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caissie Hernández Schwarber Harper

Legend

attack side — vs Nola fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:05p · roof open

Park 1.12× Wind 6 mph cross 82°F open

↑

7 mph · slight_out

83°F

6:05p · peak

↑

5 mph · slight_out

81°F

7:05p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

79°F

8:05p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

78°F

9:05p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

77°F

10:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.23× 82°F, wind 6 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Aaron Nola · RHP 2.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.41 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Owen Caissie 62 C+ +425 COOL 13 0.207 91.3 12.1% 27.7%vs RHP 398 14.7% 10.0% 23.4% 16

2 Heriberto Hernández 59 C +370 COOL 18 0.225 91.6 11.0% 20.4%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 34.2% 23

3 Otto Lopez 47 D +700 COOL 78 0.142 89.1 7.5% 10.3%vs RHP 402 6.6% 0.0% 11.1% 46

4 Javier Sanoja 44 D +950 WARM 97 0.140 86.6 4.8% 5.0%vs RHP 378 6.0% 10.0% 10.0% 33

5 Jakob Marsee 42 D +625 COOL 118 0.106 87.1 5.8% 9.2%vs RHP 381 7.0% 9.1% 9.3% 32

6 Xavier Edwards 40 D — COOL 134 0.101 87.0 5.8% 2.7%vs RHP 396 4.1% 0.0% 8.3% 41

vs Sandy Alcantara · RHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 69 C+ +205 · 4 0.287 93.2 9.9% 42.4%vs RHP 402 22.2% 15.4% 36.4% 30

2 Bryce Harper 58 C +350 COOL 23 0.235 90.2 7.8% 34.4%vs RHP 403 18.9% 7.7% 19.4% 31

3 Brandon Marsh 48 D +625 COOL 70 0.165 89.6 6.9% 20.6%vs RHP 391 12.3% 8.3% 11.8% 33

4 Trea Turner 45 D +700 COOL 89 0.149 88.4 5.9% 20.6%vs RHP 392 13.6% 9.1% 10.8% 34

5 Alec Bohm 44 D +850 WARM 98 0.140 90.5 5.7% 15.1%vs RHP 397 11.1% 9.1% 9.5% 38

6 Bryson Stott 43 D +575 COOL 102 0.153 89.4 5.8% 9.1%vs RHP 385 7.7% 7.7% 9.3% 39

7 J.T. Realmuto 37 D +750 COOL 154 0.121 89.7 5.0% 17.1%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 31

8 Justin Crawford 32 D — WARM 183 0.092 87.1 2.8% 4.4%vs RHP 382 2.2% 0.0% 7.4% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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