TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ CHC

Suppressed air · 0.76×

CWS @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 2:20p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 10 mph in 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

1:20p

-6 ↑

2:20p

-7 ↑

3:20p

-7 ↑

4:20p

-6 ↑

5:20p

best window is early — 1:20p at -5

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 38 · vs Holmes ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 33 · vs Newcomb → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Clay Holmes RHP · NYM

leak 57

0.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami — B ●●●●●

2 Miguel Vargas — C+ ●●●●○

3 Chase Meidroth — D ●●○○○

FADE Sean Newcomb LHP · CWS

leak 9

0.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.66 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong — C+ ●●●●●

2 Seiya Suzuki — C ●●●●○

3 Alex Bregman — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 21.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 41.7% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Holmes Edge — 0.306 · 94.3 · 10.8% 41.7% 34.3% F B O B 71

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong vs Newcomb — 0.269 · 90.3 · 8.7% 38.5% 27.3% F B O C+ 64

· CHC Seiya Suzuki COOL vs Newcomb Edge — 0.218 · 88.7 · 8.1% 25.0% 27.5% F B O C 56

· — Miguel Vargas vs Holmes — 0.250 · 90.7 · 8.9% 25.0% 24.6% F B O C+ 62

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Newcomb Edge — 0.194 · 89.3 · 8.2% 16.7% 15.7% F B O C 51

· — Colson Montgomery COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.218 · 88.8 · 8.2% 8.3% 16.0% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman HOT vs Newcomb Edge — 0.152 · 88.3 · 5.2% 23.1% 14.7% F B O D 42

· — Chase Meidroth COOL vs Holmes — 0.136 · 87.8 · 5.0% 18.2% 13.6% F B O D 41

· — Tristan Peters COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.156 · 87.3 · 5.2% 14.3% 9.6% F B O D 41

· — Braden Montgomery vs Holmes Edge — 0.136 · 89.2 · 4.6% 7.7% 8.8% F B O D 38

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Newcomb — 0.139 · 88.0 · 7.2% 8.3% 7.7% F B O D 42

· — Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.182 · 88.9 · 7.0% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 46

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Newcomb Edge — 0.110 · 87.0 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 36

· — Sam Antonacci COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.128 · 87.5 · 5.6% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 38

· CHC Nico Hoerner COOL vs Newcomb Edge — 0.100 · 85.8 · 2.6% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.3% BRK 36.5% OFF 2.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Pete Crow-Armstrong L

11.6% 14.4% 12.9% 12.7% C+ 64 —

Seiya Suzuki R Edge

11.9% 9.2% 13.0% 11.0% C 56 —

Ian Happ S Edge

15.0% 14.1% 1.4% 11.2% C 51 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

109

Alex Bregman R Edge

3.4% 6.9% 5.9% 4.5% D 42 —

119

Michael Busch L

11.8% 3.8% 2.0% 8.6% D 42 —

162

Carson Kelly R Edge

6.2% 4.1% 5.6% 5.5% D 36 —

201

Nico Hoerner R Edge

1.0% 0.9% 2.1% 1.1% D 29 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Newcomb's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.9% ← leak BRK 27.6% OFF 14.8% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

24.0% 18.2% 17.4% 21.2% B 71 —

Neutral · 2

Miguel Vargas R

16.5% 11.0% 13.9% 14.6% C+ 62 —

Colson Montgomery L Edge

11.9% 11.3% 14.6% 12.1% C 54 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

12.5% 4.5% 5.6% 8.9% D 46 —

122

Chase Meidroth R

4.1% 5.9% 3.9% 4.5% D 41 —

129

Tristan Peters L Edge

6.1% 5.1% 0.0% 4.9% D 41 —

143

Braden Montgomery S Edge

5.2% 3.3% 2.2% 3.9% D 38 —

147

Sam Antonacci L Edge

7.4% 4.9% 0.0% 5.7% D 38 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.9% usage) carries Holmes's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Happ Bregman Murakami Vargas Meidroth

Legend

attack side — vs Holmes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Munetaka Murakami — · 71

Pete Crow-Armstrong — · 64

Seiya Suzuki — · 56

Miguel Vargas — · 62

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 1:20p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 10 mph in 77°F open

-5

↑

8 mph · in

74°F

1:20p · peak

-6

↑

9 mph · in

75°F

2:20p

-7

↑

10 mph · in

75°F

3:20p

-7

↑

10 mph · in

75°F

4:20p

-6

↑

9 mph · in

74°F

5:20p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.76× 77°F, wind 10 mph NE (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sean Newcomb · LHP 0.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.66 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 64 C+ — WARM 8 0.269 90.3 8.7% 25.0%vs LHP 396 21.3% 38.5% 27.3% 35

2 Seiya Suzuki 56 C — COOL 26 0.218 88.7 8.1% 33.3%vs LHP 406 17.3% 25.0% 27.5% 35

3 Ian Happ 51 C — COOL 49 0.194 89.3 8.2% 13.8%vs LHP 402 16.8% 16.7% 15.7% 30

4 Alex Bregman 42 D — HOT 109 0.152 88.3 5.2% 10.7%vs LHP 387 10.5% 23.1% 14.7% 41

5 Michael Busch 42 D — COOL 119 0.139 88.0 7.2% 11.1%vs LHP 401 12.6% 8.3% 7.7% 38

6 Carson Kelly 36 D — COOL 162 0.110 87.0 5.7% 20.0%vs LHP 413 6.9% 0.0% 8.5% 24

7 Nico Hoerner 29 D — COOL 201 0.100 85.8 2.6% 7.1%vs LHP 381 5.6% 0.0% 7.1% 42

vs Clay Holmes · RHP 0.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 71 B — WARM 2 0.306 94.3 10.8% 37.9%vs RHP 402 21.4% 41.7% 34.3% 25

2 Miguel Vargas 62 C+ — · 12 0.250 90.7 8.9% 17.5%vs RHP 392 21.5% 25.0% 24.6% 34

3 Colson Montgomery 54 C — COOL 34 0.218 88.8 8.2% 25.0%vs RHP 399 21.6% 8.3% 16.0% 25

4 Andrew Benintendi 46 D — COOL 83 0.182 88.9 7.0% 16.2%vs RHP 388 13.6% 0.0% 12.0% 21

5 Chase Meidroth 41 D — COOL 122 0.136 87.8 5.0% 17.0%vs RHP 379 8.5% 18.2% 13.6% 29

6 Tristan Peters 41 D — COOL 129 0.156 87.3 5.2% 10.8%vs RHP 377 8.0% 14.3% 9.6% 21

7 Braden Montgomery 38 D — WARM 143 0.136 89.2 4.6% 15.0%vs RHP 383 5.3% 7.7% 8.8% 28

8 Sam Antonacci 38 D — COOL 147 0.128 87.5 5.6% 14.0%vs RHP 390 9.2% 0.0% 8.4% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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