TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ CLE

Suppressed air · 0.99×

SF @ CLE

Progressive Field · 6:40p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 6 mph slight_out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

6:40p

+3 ↑

7:40p

+3 ↑

8:40p

+3 ↑

9:40p

+1 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +3

Best of game Bryce Eldridge conv 22 · vs Messick ⟷ Rhys Hoskins conv 20 · vs Proxy → edge: Rhys Hoskins

ATTACK Parker Messick LHP · CLE

leak 42

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bryce Eldridge +525 D ●●●○○

2 Rafael Devers +500 C ●●●○○

3 Drew Gilbert — D ●●○○○

FADE SF Bullpen Proxy · SF

leak 39

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rhys Hoskins — C ●●●○○

2 Brayan Rocchio +950 D ●○○○○

3 Steven Kwan — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rhys Hoskins: Match 19.1% · 14D pace 20.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CLE Rhys Hoskins ✶ vs Proxy — 0.199 · 89.3 · 12.8% 20.0% 19.1% F B O C 55

· SF Rafael Devers vs Messick +500 0.228 · 92.6 · 7.7% 18.2% 17.3% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Messick +525 0.187 · 92.1 · 8.1% 27.3% 16.0% F B O D 49

· SF Drew Gilbert vs Messick — 0.131 · 86.2 · 4.8% 20.0% 11.2% F B O D 35

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Messick Edge — 0.189 · 87.2 · 6.8% 12.5% 13.6% F B O D 44

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Messick — 0.140 · 86.9 · 3.7% 10.0% 7.5% F B O D 32

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Proxy +950 0.123 · 86.7 · 3.3% 9.1% 6.8% F B O D 33

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Proxy — 0.063 · 83.7 · 0.3% 9.1% 6.0% F B O D 22

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Proxy +625 0.189 · 87.3 · 8.1% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 41

· CLE Chase Delauter COOL vs Proxy — 0.157 · 91.2 · 6.4% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 39

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Proxy +500 0.146 · 89.3 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 34

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Proxy +850 0.137 · 88.1 · 4.4% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 60.7% ← leak OFF 24.0% BRK 15.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rafael Devers L

12.0% 7.7% 10.3% 10.7% C 52 +500

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Bryce Eldridge L

12.6% 15.6% 7.1% 11.9% D 49 +525

Willy Adames R Edge

7.5% 13.8% 8.4% 8.3% D 44 —

170

Drew Gilbert L

5.3% 0.0% 4.2% 4.2% D 35 —

182

Jung Hoo Lee L

2.7% 2.3% 2.4% 2.6% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.7% usage) carries Messick's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for SF Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Eldridge Adames Gilbert Hoskins

Legend

attack side — vs Messick fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Rhys Hoskins — · 55

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 6 mph slight_out 77°F open

↑

4 mph · slight_out

78°F

6:40p · peak

↑

3 mph · out

76°F

7:40p

↑

3 mph · out

74°F

8:40p

↑

3 mph · out

72°F

9:40p

↑

2 mph · out

70°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.99× 77°F, wind 6 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Parker Messick · LHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 52 C +500 · 43 0.228 92.6 7.7% 10.5%vs LHP 397 18.0% 18.2% 17.3% 29

2 Bryce Eldridge 49 D +525 · 63 0.187 92.1 8.1% 16.7%vs LHP 399 20.7% 27.3% 16.0% 28

3 Willy Adames 44 D — COOL 94 0.189 87.2 6.8% 11.1%vs LHP 387 14.4% 12.5% 13.6% 17

4 Drew Gilbert 35 D — WARM 170 0.131 86.2 4.8% 8.7% 393 5.3% 20.0% 11.2% 25

5 Jung Hoo Lee 32 D — · 182 0.140 86.9 3.7% 9.5%vs LHP 382 6.2% 10.0% 7.5% 38

vs SF Bullpen Proxy 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins ✶ 55 C — WARM 46 0.199 89.3 12.8% 15.1% 389 14.3% 20.0% 19.1% 12

2 Angel Martinez 41 D +625 COOL 150 0.189 87.3 8.1% 17.1% 394 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 25

3 Chase Delauter 39 D — COOL 167 0.157 91.2 6.4% 13.0% 397 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 37

4 Travis Bazzana 36 D +850 COOL 180 0.137 88.1 4.4% 9.4% 396 10.0% 0.0% 7.2% 22

5 Jose Ramirez 34 D +500 COOL 193 0.146 89.3 5.1% 8.5% 392 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 26

6 Brayan Rocchio 33 D +950 WARM 200 0.123 86.7 3.3% 8.3% 384 7.6% 9.1% 6.8% 32

7 Steven Kwan 22 D — COOL 208 0.063 83.7 0.3% 1.9% 372 1.8% 9.1% 6.0% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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