TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ KC

Neutral air · 1.01×

ATH @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 7:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 7 mph in 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

6:40p

-4 ↑

7:40p

-3 ↑

8:40p

-1 ↑

9:40p

-2 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 9:40p window peaks -1

Best of game Jac Caglianone conv 26 · vs Proxy ⟷ Lawrence Butler conv 27 · vs Proxy → edge: Jac Caglianone

ATTACK ATH Bullpen Proxy · ATH

leak 70

1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jac Caglianone — C+ ●●●●○

2 Michael Massey — D ●●●○○

3 Carter Jensen — C ●●○○○

FADE KC Bullpen Proxy

leak 65

1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Lawrence Butler — D ●●●●○

2 Jeff Mcneil — D ●●●○○

3 Henry Bolte — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jac Caglianone: Match 28.3% · 14D pace 23.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Jac Caglianone ✶ vs Proxy — 0.216 · 93.2 · 14.4% 23.1% 28.3% F B O C+ 66

· KC Carter Jensen vs Proxy — 0.182 · 90.6 · 10.0% 8.3% 11.8% F B O C 53

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Proxy — 0.175 · 92.6 · 11.5% 0.0% 12.7% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· — Lawrence Butler vs Proxy — 0.142 · 89.5 · 7.9% 38.5% 16.0% F B O D 48

· KC Michael Massey vs Proxy — 0.169 · 89.8 · 6.3% 23.1% 18.1% F B O D 48

· — Jeff Mcneil HOT vs Proxy — 0.097 · 86.6 · 2.0% 25.0% 11.3% F B O D 33

· — Henry Bolte vs Proxy — 0.103 · 90.9 · 7.4% 15.4% 10.7% F B O D 42

· — Jonah Heim vs Proxy — 0.185 · 87.7 · 7.2% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 46

· KC Salvador Perez COOL vs Proxy — 0.150 · 88.9 · 9.6% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 44

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Proxy — 0.113 · 89.0 · 6.6% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 40

· — Carlos Cortes COOL vs Proxy — 0.151 · 89.5 · 6.6% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 41

· KC Nick Loftin COOL vs Proxy — 0.139 · 86.9 · 4.0% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 38

· — Jacob Wilson vs Proxy — 0.122 · 84.1 · 2.5% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 33

· KC Isaac Collins vs Proxy — 0.122 · 88.6 · 5.6% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for ATH Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for KC Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caglianone Massey Butler Bolte Mcneil

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jac Caglianone — · 66

Michael Massey — · 48

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.01× Wind 7 mph in 83°F open

-4

↑

7 mph · in

76°F

6:40p

-4

↑

7 mph · cross

76°F

7:40p

-3

↑

7 mph · cross

77°F

8:40p

-1

↑

6 mph · cross

78°F

9:40p · peak

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

76°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 83°F, wind 7 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs ATH Bullpen Proxy 1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone ✶ 66 C+ — WARM 10 0.216 93.2 14.4% 27.2% 417 15.2% 23.1% 28.3% 41

2 Carter Jensen 53 C — · 55 0.182 90.6 10.0% 12.4% 394 14.0% 8.3% 11.8% 26

3 Bobby Witt 51 C — COOL 75 0.175 92.6 11.5% 12.3% 404 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 36

4 Michael Massey 48 D — WARM 91 0.169 89.8 6.3% 10.9% 399 8.0% 23.1% 18.1% 31

5 Salvador Perez 44 D — COOL 130 0.150 88.9 9.6% 12.0% 405 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 31

6 Vinnie Pasquantino 40 D — WARM 159 0.113 89.0 6.6% 6.2% 395 7.7% 0.0% 9.6% 4

7 Nick Loftin 38 D — COOL 173 0.139 86.9 4.0% 6.7% 397 8.2% 0.0% 8.2% 26

8 Isaac Collins 38 D — WARM 174 0.122 88.6 5.6% 6.0% 394 5.7% 0.0% 7.7% 28

vs KC Bullpen Proxy 1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Lawrence Butler 48 D — WARM 92 0.142 89.5 7.9% 16.4% 409 8.5% 38.5% 16.0% 38

2 Jonah Heim 46 D — WARM 107 0.185 87.7 7.2% 14.3% 414 9.1% 0.0% 12.0% 27

3 Henry Bolte 42 D — · 142 0.103 90.9 7.4% 16.2% 410 11.1% 15.4% 10.7% 33

4 Carlos Cortes 41 D — COOL 151 0.151 89.5 6.6% 12.1% 403 4.7% 0.0% 9.5% 16

5 Jeff Mcneil 33 D — HOT 198 0.097 86.6 2.0% 6.7% 381 5.4% 25.0% 11.3% 27

6 Jacob Wilson 33 D — WARM 199 0.122 84.1 2.5% 10.0% 386 6.5% 0.0% 8.0% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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