TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ TB

Playable air · 1.07×

TOR @ TB

Tropicana Field · 6:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 34 · vs Scherzer ⟷ Jesús Sánchez conv 16 · vs Rasmussen → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Max Scherzer RHP · TOR

leak 97

2.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.33 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +290 B ●●●●●

2 Taylor Walls +950 D ●●○○○

3 Yandy Diaz +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Drew Rasmussen RHP · TB

leak 25

0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jesús Sánchez +625 D ●●●○○

2 Kazuma Okamoto +525 C ●●○○○

3 Nathan Lukes +950 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 42.1% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ COOL vs Scherzer +290 0.263 · 92.7 · 11.1% 25.0% 42.1% F B O B 72

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Rasmussen +525 0.201 · 90.4 · 8.9% 9.1% 14.3% F B O C 51

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Scherzer Edge +400 0.142 · 91.0 · 9.7% 8.3% 10.8% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Rasmussen Edge +625 0.162 · 90.9 · 8.6% 12.5% 20.1% F B O D 47

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Scherzer Edge +950 0.079 · 85.4 · 4.5% 9.1% 11.1% F B O D 37

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Rasmussen Edge +950 0.099 · 86.6 · 2.8% 11.1% 8.8% F B O D 31

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Scherzer +525 0.164 · 91.0 · 8.1% 0.0% 19.6% F B O D 49

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Rasmussen +850 0.121 · 84.5 · 3.9% 9.1% 7.0% F B O D 33

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Scherzer Edge +500 0.150 · 87.7 · 5.7% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 46

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Rasmussen +525 0.154 · 88.4 · 6.7% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 41

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Scherzer — 0.103 · 85.2 · 4.5% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 39

· TB Richie Palacios vs Scherzer Edge +750 0.116 · 86.4 · 6.0% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 42

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Rasmussen Edge +950 0.119 · 85.7 · 4.7% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 31

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Scherzer Edge — 0.058 · 83.8 · — 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 25

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Rasmussen — 0.111 · 85.7 · 4.6% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 81.3% ← leak OFF 12.2% BRK 6.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

14.1% 18.2% 7.0% 12.3% C 51 +525

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jesús Sánchez L Edge

10.9% 0.0% 18.3% 11.4% D 47 +625

126

George Springer R

7.4% 6.9% 5.6% 6.8% D 41 +525

177

Ernie Clement R

2.5% 1.8% 2.3% 2.3% D 33 +850

185

Myles Straw R

3.7% 6.2% 0.0% 3.2% D 32 —

187

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.6% 4.8% 2.1% 3.3% D 31 +950

190

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 2.2% 3.4% 1.2% D 31 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (81.3% usage) carries Rasmussen's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.1% BRK 36.2% OFF 16.0% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Junior Caminero R

15.7% 12.0% 7.7% 13.3% B 72 +290

Neutral · 1

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

10.9% 13.2% 4.8% 10.3% C 52 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Yandy Diaz R

5.9% 10.3% 4.0% 7.1% D 49 +525

Cedric Mullins L Edge

2.8% 3.1% 8.1% 3.6% D 46 +500

117

Richie Palacios L Edge

5.1% 1.8% 3.2% 3.9% D 42 +750

137

Nick Fortes R

2.8% 1.8% 0.0% 2.3% D 39 —

156

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 37 +950

206

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 25 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Scherzer's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Sánchez Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Scherzer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Junior Caminero +290 · 72

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.07× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.07× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Drew Rasmussen · RHP 0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 51 C +525 COOL 50 0.201 90.4 8.9% 28.4%vs RHP 397 17.3% 9.1% 14.3% 26

2 Jesús Sánchez 47 D +625 WARM 76 0.162 90.9 8.6% 19.6%vs RHP 398 10.3% 12.5% 20.1% 11

3 George Springer 41 D +525 COOL 126 0.154 88.4 6.7% 22.0%vs RHP 393 10.5% 0.0% 10.2% 26

4 Ernie Clement 33 D +850 COOL 177 0.121 84.5 3.9% 6.2%vs RHP 376 7.6% 9.1% 7.0% 38

5 Myles Straw 32 D — COOL 185 0.111 85.7 4.6% 5.3%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 28

6 Andres Gimenez 31 D +950 COOL 187 0.119 85.7 4.7% 10.7%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 32

7 Nathan Lukes 31 D +950 WARM 190 0.099 86.6 2.8% 12.8%vs RHP 381 6.2% 11.1% 8.8% 38

vs Max Scherzer · RHP 2.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.33 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 72 B +290 COOL 1 0.263 92.7 11.1% 41.8%vs RHP 413 26.2% 25.0% 42.1% 31

2 Jonathan Aranda 52 C +400 · 44 0.142 91.0 9.7% 16.5%vs RHP 386 11.1% 8.3% 10.8% 36

3 Yandy Diaz 49 D +525 · 57 0.164 91.0 8.1% 22.2%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 19.6% 43

4 Cedric Mullins 46 D +500 COOL 84 0.150 87.7 5.7% 19.7%vs RHP 389 12.1% 0.0% 11.9% 24

5 Richie Palacios 42 D +750 WARM 117 0.116 86.4 6.0% 12.8%vs RHP 398 4.3% 0.0% 9.5% 22

6 Nick Fortes 39 D — COOL 137 0.103 85.2 4.5% 14.3%vs RHP 396 4.5% 0.0% 10.1% 11

7 Taylor Walls 37 D +950 COOL 156 0.079 85.4 4.5% 2.6%vs RHP 383 1.0% 9.1% 11.1% 29

8 Chandler Simpson 25 D — COOL 206 0.058 83.8 — 2.8%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 43

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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