TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ PIT

Neutral air · 1.04×

DET @ PIT

PNC Park · 12:35p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 7 mph slight_out 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

12:35p

+5 ↑

1:35p

+6 ↑

2:35p

+6 ↑

3:35p

+5 ↑

4:35p

the 2:35p window peaks +6

Best of game Oneil Cruz conv 60 · vs Jobe ⟷ Dillon Dingler conv 18 · vs Skenes → edge: Oneil Cruz

ATTACK Jackson Jobe RHP

leak 97

2.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.38 · leakiest side of this game

1 Oneil Cruz +350 C ●●●●●

2 Brandon Lowe +330 C ●●●●○

3 Jared Triolo — D ●○○○○

FADE Paul Skenes RHP · PIT

leak 93

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dillon Dingler +625 C ●●●○○

2 Colt Keith +700 D ●○○○○

3 Gleyber Torres +850 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Oneil Cruz: 16.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 100.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Oneil Cruz ✶ vs Jobe +350 0.208 · 96.0 · 13.0% 100.0% 20.3% F B O C 59

· — Brandon Lowe vs Jobe Edge +330 0.225 · 91.2 · 11.3% 23.1% 29.4% F B O C 59

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Skenes +625 0.238 · 88.9 · 9.0% 16.7% 19.3% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· — Jared Triolo HOT vs Jobe — 0.071 · 87.6 · 5.2% 11.1% 7.7% F B O D 30

· DET Colt Keith vs Skenes Edge +700 0.153 · 88.8 · 7.2% 10.0% 8.4% F B O D 36

· DET Gleyber Torres COOL vs Skenes +850 0.133 · 86.1 · 7.3% 7.7% 8.8% F B O D 35

· — Jake Mangum vs Jobe Edge — 0.091 · 85.5 · 4.8% 7.7% 8.4% F B O D 31

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Skenes +500 0.190 · 89.3 · 9.9% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 45

· — Bryan Reynolds vs Jobe Edge +575 0.168 · 90.6 · 10.7% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 47

· — Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Jobe Edge +575 0.154 · 86.9 · 8.8% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 42

· — Nick Gonzales COOL vs Jobe +950 0.094 · 86.3 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 31

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Skenes Edge +625 0.141 · 88.1 · 7.1% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 36

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Skenes Edge +950 0.106 · 85.7 · 4.3% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.0% ← leak OFF 24.3% BRK 22.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dillon Dingler R

12.1% 6.7% 8.8% 10.6% C 52 +625

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Spencer Torkelson R

13.7% 12.5% 11.0% 12.9% D 45 +500

160

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

8.0% 1.6% 6.5% 6.7% D 36 +625

163

Colt Keith L Edge

6.5% 3.2% 13.3% 6.8% D 36 +700

171

Gleyber Torres R

8.6% 0.0% 5.6% 7.0% D 35 +850

204

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.3% 0.0% 1.6% 2.4% D 27 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.0% usage) carries Skenes's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.4% ← leak BRK 27.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Brandon Lowe L Edge

16.1% 7.8% 12.5% C 59 +330

Oneil Cruz

15.6% 19.6% 16.0% C 59 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.3% 13.1% 11.1% D 47 +575

113

Spencer Horwitz L Edge

7.3% 6.5% 7.5% D 42 +575

191

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.6% 1.1% 2.2% D 31 —

192

Nick Gonzales R

2.3% 4.6% 2.7% D 31 +950

196

Jared Triolo R

3.1% 2.5% 2.6% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.4% usage) carries Jobe's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Dingler Lowe Cruz

Legend

attack side — vs Jobe fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Oneil Cruz +350 · 59

Brandon Lowe +330 · 59

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 12:35p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 7 mph slight_out 75°F open

↑

9 mph · slight_out

73°F

12:35p

↑

9 mph · out

75°F

1:35p

↑

9 mph · out

76°F

2:35p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

78°F

3:35p

↑

6 mph · out

80°F

4:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 75°F, wind 7 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Paul Skenes · RHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 52 C +625 COOL 42 0.238 88.9 9.0% 31.2%vs RHP 398 19.8% 16.7% 19.3% 39

2 Spencer Torkelson 45 D +500 · 88 0.190 89.3 9.9% 23.3%vs RHP 394 14.9% 0.0% 13.7% 28

3 Kevin Mcgonigle 36 D +625 COOL 160 0.141 88.1 7.1% 8.8%vs RHP 397 20.0% 0.0% 7.2% 41

4 Colt Keith 36 D +700 WARM 163 0.153 88.8 7.2% 13.6%vs RHP 385 6.8% 10.0% 8.4% 24

5 Gleyber Torres 35 D +850 COOL 171 0.133 86.1 7.3% 15.8%vs RHP 393 10.0% 7.7% 8.8% 41

6 Zach Mckinstry 27 D +950 COOL 204 0.106 85.7 4.3% 6.2%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 29

vs Jackson Jobe · RHP 2.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.38 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 59 C +330 WARM 20 0.225 91.2 11.3% 25.3%vs RHP 392 16.5% 23.1% 29.4% 25

2 Oneil Cruz ✶ 59 C +350 · 21 0.208 96.0 13.0% 33.3%vs RHP 414 24.6% 100.0% 20.3% 0

3 Bryan Reynolds 47 D +575 · 77 0.168 90.6 10.7% 17.0%vs RHP 409 11.3% 0.0% 11.8% 30

4 Spencer Horwitz 42 D +575 COOL 113 0.154 86.9 8.8% 15.6%vs RHP 395 10.3% 0.0% 10.6% 24

5 Jake Mangum 31 D — WARM 191 0.091 85.5 4.8% 10.3%vs RHP 393 4.8% 7.7% 8.4% 36

6 Nick Gonzales 31 D +950 COOL 192 0.094 86.3 5.3% 10.6%vs RHP 397 6.8% 0.0% 7.8% 29

7 Jared Triolo 30 D — HOT 196 0.071 87.6 5.2% 9.5%vs RHP 407 1.5% 11.1% 7.7% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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