TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ BOS

Fenway Park is live · 1.25×

AZ @ BOS

Fenway Park · 4:10p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 8 mph out 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

4:10p

+1 ↑

5:10p

+1 ↑

6:10p

+1 ↑

7:10p

+1 ↑

8:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · +1 FIT

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 23 · vs Tolle ⟷ Mickey Gasper conv 54 · vs Pfaadt → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Payton Tolle LHP · BOS

leak 95

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado — D ●●●●○

2 Corbin Carroll — D ●●○○○

3 Gabriel Moreno — D ●●○○○

FADE Brandon Pfaadt RHP · AZ

leak 3

0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mickey Gasper — D ●●●●●

2 Wilyer Abreu — C ●●●○○

3 Connor Wong — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: 14.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Pfaadt Edge — 0.213 · 90.0 · 9.8% 23.1% 19.1% F B O C 51

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ COOL vs Pfaadt — 0.252 · 90.2 · 10.1% 18.2% 21.5% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 16 long shots

· BOS Mickey Gasper HOT vs Pfaadt Edge — 0.089 · 88.4 · 6.3% 100.0% 7.4% F B O D 35

· AZ Nolan Arenado COOL vs Tolle Edge — 0.202 · 85.2 · 6.8% 25.0% 21.3% F B O D 44

· BOS Connor Wong HOT vs Pfaadt — 0.133 · 86.7 · 6.4% 33.3% 8.7% F B O D 36

· AZ Corbin Carroll COOL vs Tolle — 0.241 · 91.6 · 8.8% 15.4% 16.3% F B O D 49

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Tolle Edge — 0.154 · 89.3 · 6.8% 16.7% 7.9% F B O D 36

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Tolle Edge — 0.146 · 87.5 · 4.9% 10.0% 11.3% F B O D 31

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Tolle Edge — 0.156 · 90.7 · 7.3% 11.1% 7.5% F B O D 36

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Pfaadt Edge — 0.148 · 89.7 · 8.3% 7.7% 10.1% F B O D 39

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela vs Pfaadt — 0.182 · 86.4 · 6.6% 7.7% 8.5% F B O D 39

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Pfaadt — 0.150 · 83.9 · 4.6% 7.7% 7.4% F B O D 32

· AZ Jose Fernandez COOL vs Tolle Edge — 0.095 · 88.1 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 27

· AZ Jordan Lawlar COOL vs Tolle Edge — 0.119 · 86.8 · 4.7% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 31

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Pfaadt — 0.169 · 88.4 · 7.6% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 38

· BOS Nick Sogard COOL vs Pfaadt Edge — 0.084 · 85.2 · 5.1% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 28

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Tolle Edge — 0.127 · 87.3 · 4.5% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 28

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Tolle Edge — 0.110 · 88.0 · 6.7% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 87.6% ← leak BRK 9.0% OFF 3.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 9 — below the fade line

Corbin Carroll L

11.0% 14.8% 9.3% 11.8% D 49 —

109

Nolan Arenado R Edge

10.0% 2.0% 5.9% 7.0% D 44 —

206

Gabriel Moreno R Edge

7.6% 6.8% 7.9% 7.4% D 36 —

207

Tim Tawa R Edge

7.4% 10.5% 4.8% 7.8% D 36 —

229

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.9% 2.9% 1.4% 3.7% D 31 —

236

Jordan Lawlar R Edge

5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% D 31 —

248

Ryan Waldschmidt R Edge

7.7% 7.0% 0.0% 6.7% D 29 —

251

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.0% 1.5% 2.2% 3.1% D 28 —

253

Jose Fernandez R Edge

2.8% 6.0% 0.0% 3.7% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (87.6% usage) carries Tolle's damage — FB is the leak. 8 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 55.1% ← leak BRK 28.6% OFF 16.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Willson Contreras R

11.6% 15.7% 22.2% 14.0% C 55 —

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

11.7% 15.6% 12.2% 12.8% C 51 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

174

Jarren Duran L Edge

11.7% 7.0% 7.1% 9.4% D 39 —

176

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.5% 7.2% 12.0% 5.8% D 39 —

188

Andruw Monasterio R

7.8% 7.0% 13.3% 8.0% D 38 —

202

Connor Wong R

5.0% 8.8% 0.0% 5.7% D 36 —

212

Mickey Gasper S Edge

9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% D 35 —

225

Caleb Durbin R

3.2% 2.3% 2.7% 2.9% D 32 —

249

Nick Sogard S Edge

1.9% 5.3% 5.3% 3.3% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.1% usage) carries Pfaadt's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Arenado Contreras Abreu Wong Gasper

Legend

attack side — vs Tolle fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Wilyer Abreu — · 51

Nolan Arenado — · 44

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 4:10p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 8 mph out 87°F open

↑

4 mph · slight_out

81°F

4:10p · peak

↑

4 mph · slight_out

81°F

5:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

81°F

6:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

81°F

7:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

81°F

8:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.25× 87°F, wind 8 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Payton Tolle · LHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 49 D — COOL 74 0.241 91.6 8.8% 18.5%vs LHP 402 14.0% 15.4% 16.3% 39

2 Nolan Arenado 44 D — COOL 109 0.202 85.2 6.8% 30.4%vs LHP 390 15.5% 25.0% 21.3% 31

3 Gabriel Moreno 36 D — · 206 0.154 89.3 6.8% 13.6%vs LHP 398 10.0% 16.7% 7.9% 43

4 Tim Tawa 36 D — · 207 0.156 90.7 7.3% 0.0%vs LHP 402 6.9% 11.1% 7.5% 34

5 Ildemaro Vargas 31 D — WARM 229 0.146 87.5 4.9% 28.6%vs LHP 396 5.4% 10.0% 11.3% 32

6 Jordan Lawlar 31 D — COOL 236 0.119 86.8 4.7% 0.0%vs LHP 424 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 3

7 Ryan Waldschmidt 29 D — COOL 248 0.110 88.0 6.7% 0.0%vs LHP 419 2.8% 0.0% 5.3% 31

8 Geraldo Perdomo 28 D — COOL 251 0.127 87.3 4.5% 4.2%vs LHP 383 7.2% 0.0% 5.8% 39

9 Jose Fernandez 27 D — COOL 253 0.095 88.1 5.0% 8.3% 409 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 5

vs Brandon Pfaadt · RHP 0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 55 C — COOL 38 0.252 90.2 10.1% 30.9%vs RHP 404 20.0% 18.2% 21.5% 25

2 Wilyer Abreu 51 C — · 59 0.213 90.0 9.8% 17.6%vs RHP 407 16.4% 23.1% 19.1% 41

3 Jarren Duran 39 D — WARM 174 0.148 89.7 8.3% 28.3%vs RHP 399 12.7% 7.7% 10.1% 34

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 39 D — · 176 0.182 86.4 6.6% 17.6%vs RHP 382 13.2% 7.7% 8.5% 49

5 Andruw Monasterio 38 D — COOL 188 0.169 88.4 7.6% 2.5%vs RHP 390 12.0% 0.0% 6.2% 44

6 Connor Wong 36 D — HOT 202 0.133 86.7 6.4% 5.0%vs RHP 395 8.8% 33.3% 8.7% 13

7 Mickey Gasper 35 D — HOT 212 0.089 88.4 6.3% 0.0%vs RHP 343 8.3% 100.0% 7.4% 7

8 Caleb Durbin 32 D — COOL 225 0.150 83.9 4.6% 21.4%vs RHP 376 9.3% 7.7% 7.4% 45

9 Nick Sogard 28 D — COOL 249 0.084 85.2 5.1% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 46

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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