TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ BAL

Playable air · 1.09×

NYY @ BAL

Camden Yards · 6:35p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 3 mph out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:35p

-2 ↑

7:35p

-2 ↑

8:35p

-3 ↑

9:35p

-4 ↑

10:35p

best window is early — 6:35p at +1

Best of game Pete Alonso conv 30 · vs Warren ⟷ Trent Grisham conv 29 · vs Bassitt → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Will Warren RHP · NYY

leak 90

1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Alonso +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Colton Cowser +500 D ●●●●●

3 Coby Mayo +390 C ●●●●○

FADE Chris Bassitt RHP · BAL

leak 73

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · stingy — thin edge

1 Trent Grisham +330 C ●●●●○

2 Ben Rice +290 C+ ●●●●○

3 Paul Goldschmidt — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: 13.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ HOT vs Warren +320 0.228 · 94.2 · 10.3% 30.8% 29.6% F B O C+ 62

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Bassitt Edge +330 0.196 · 90.7 · 6.9% 36.4% 22.0% F B O C 52

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Warren +390 0.223 · 92.2 · 9.6% 30.0% 20.2% F B O C 56

· NYY Ben Rice vs Bassitt Edge +290 0.281 · 92.2 · 8.6% 18.2% 29.2% F B O C+ 63

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Warren Edge +500 0.144 · 87.2 · 9.2% 42.9% 17.0% F B O D 49

· BAL Gunnar Henderson HOT vs Warren Edge +425 0.179 · 89.9 · 7.5% 15.4% 14.2% F B O D 48

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Warren Edge +850 0.135 · 87.8 · 5.8% 10.0% 12.8% F B O D 38

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs Warren Edge +750 0.136 · 87.4 · 7.6% 7.7% 9.2% F B O D 40

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Bassitt — 0.203 · 86.6 · 7.1% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 48

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Bassitt Edge — 0.171 · 90.7 · 6.7% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 42

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Bassitt Edge +500 0.154 · 91.3 · 6.9% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 42

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Bassitt — 0.148 · 83.8 · 4.5% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 34

· NYY Austin Wells COOL vs Bassitt Edge +500 0.121 · 89.0 · 5.8% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 63.8% ← leak BRK 30.7% OFF 5.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ben Rice L Edge

17.5% 12.8% 12.5% 15.2% C+ 63 +290

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.4% 7.5% 5.3% 9.9% C 52 +330

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Paul Goldschmidt R

13.9% 4.5% 9.1% 10.4% D 48 —

110

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

12.4% 4.1% 10.7% 9.9% D 42 +500

112

Jazz Chisholm L Edge

7.2% 12.9% 7.5% 9.1% D 42 —

149

Austin Wells L Edge

9.0% 5.9% 0.0% 6.9% D 38 +500

175

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.8% usage) carries Bassitt's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 63.8% ← leak BRK 24.3% OFF 11.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Alonso R

15.3% 10.3% 15.8% 13.9% C+ 62 +320

Coby Mayo R

10.9% 12.5% 14.8% 12.0% C 56 +390

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Colton Cowser L Edge

14.8% 14.3% 2.2% 11.2% D 49 +500

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.8% 6.5% 7.8% 7.4% D 48 +425

133

Jackson Holliday L Edge

8.6% 5.0% 8.6% 7.7% D 40 +750

144

Leody Taveras S Edge

5.0% 7.3% 0.0% 4.4% D 38 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.8% usage) carries Warren's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Grisham Alonso Mayo Cowser Henderson

Legend

attack side — vs Warren fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Pete Alonso +320 · 62

Trent Grisham +330 · 52

Coby Mayo +390 · 56

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 6:35p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 3 mph out 84°F open

↑

3 mph · cross

85°F

6:35p · peak

-2

↑

3 mph · in

82°F

7:35p

-2

↑

3 mph · in

79°F

8:35p

-3

↑

4 mph · in

77°F

9:35p

-4

↑

5 mph · in

74°F

10:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.09× 84°F, wind 3 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Chris Bassitt · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 63 C+ +290 WARM 9 0.281 92.2 8.6% 30.8%vs RHP 393 24.6% 18.2% 29.2% 25

2 Trent Grisham 52 C +330 WARM 45 0.196 90.7 6.9% 21.0%vs RHP 385 14.1% 36.4% 22.0% 28

3 Paul Goldschmidt 48 D — WARM 69 0.203 86.6 7.1% 18.4%vs RHP 390 15.9% 0.0% 12.2% 4

4 Ryan Mcmahon 42 D +500 COOL 110 0.154 91.3 6.9% 18.9%vs RHP 387 16.7% 0.0% 10.0% 17

5 Jazz Chisholm 42 D — COOL 112 0.171 90.7 6.7% 24.5%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 16

6 Austin Wells 38 D +500 COOL 149 0.121 89.0 5.8% 14.6%vs RHP 387 9.2% 0.0% 8.1% 18

7 Jose Caballero 34 D — COOL 175 0.148 83.8 4.5% 22.2%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 4

vs Will Warren · RHP 1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 62 C+ +320 HOT 11 0.228 94.2 10.3% 27.4%vs RHP 400 20.0% 30.8% 29.6% 36

2 Coby Mayo 56 C +390 · 28 0.223 92.2 9.6% 10.8%vs RHP 411 17.0% 30.0% 20.2% 28

3 Colton Cowser 49 D +500 WARM 61 0.144 87.2 9.2% 19.2%vs RHP 417 15.9% 42.9% 17.0% 18

4 Gunnar Henderson 48 D +425 HOT 67 0.179 89.9 7.5% 17.9%vs RHP 391 15.4% 15.4% 14.2% 35

5 Jackson Holliday 40 D +750 COOL 133 0.136 87.4 7.6% 17.2%vs RHP 388 4.3% 7.7% 9.2% 38

6 Leody Taveras 38 D +850 · 144 0.135 87.8 5.8% 14.3%vs RHP 405 4.6% 10.0% 12.8% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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