TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ MIN

Suppressed air · 0.94×

ATL @ MIN

Target Field · 1:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 3 mph out 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

12:40p

+3 ↑

1:40p

+4 ↑

2:40p

+4 ↑

3:40p

+4 ↑

4:40p

the 2:40p window peaks +4

Best of game Matt Olson conv 35 · vs Bradley ⟷ Kody Clemens conv 17 · vs Smith-Shawver → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Taj Bradley RHP · MIN

leak 87

1.26 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +305 C+ ●●●●●

2 Austin Riley +475 D ●●○○○

3 Drake Baldwin +390 D ●●○○○

FADE AJ Smith-Shawver RHP

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.56 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kody Clemens +400 C ●●●○○

2 Josh Bell +475 D ●●○○○

3 Brooks Lee +625 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 15.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 38.5% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Bradley Edge +305 0.288 · 92.5 · 12.1% 38.5% 31.7% F B O C+ 68

· — Kody Clemens COOL vs Smith-Shawver Edge +400 0.230 · 92.3 · 10.3% 18.2% 15.9% F B O C 54

· — Byron Buxton COOL vs Smith-Shawver +280 0.272 · 90.3 · 12.6% 0.0% 12.9% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· — Josh Bell vs Smith-Shawver Edge +475 0.168 · 89.9 · 9.6% 23.1% 7.8% F B O D 45

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs Bradley +475 0.148 · 91.3 · 10.9% 15.4% 13.2% F B O D 46

· — Brooks Lee vs Smith-Shawver Edge +625 0.177 · 87.8 · 5.8% 16.7% 9.8% F B O D 41

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Bradley Edge +390 0.175 · 91.7 · 11.2% 7.7% 12.3% F B O D 49

· ATL Ronald Acuna vs Bradley — 0.193 · 90.3 · 11.2% 0.0% 19.9% F B O D 45

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Bradley Edge +525 0.171 · 86.9 · 6.3% 8.3% 10.4% F B O D 41

· — Royce Lewis vs Smith-Shawver +425 0.183 · 90.2 · 10.7% 7.7% 8.2% F B O D 47

· — Luke Keaschall COOL vs Smith-Shawver +750 0.107 · 84.8 · 5.3% 8.3% 5.4% F B O D 30

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Bradley Edge — 0.191 · 90.7 · 10.1% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 44

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Bradley Edge +525 0.161 · 90.6 · 8.3% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 41

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Bradley Edge — 0.127 · 87.8 · 7.2% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 37

· — Trevor Larnach COOL vs Smith-Shawver Edge +525 0.156 · 87.4 · 8.4% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 39

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Bradley +950 0.129 · 86.9 · 6.0% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 31

· — Victor Caratini vs Smith-Shawver Edge — 0.106 · 89.6 · 7.9% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 70.8% ← leak OFF 19.8% BRK 9.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

18.0% 11.6% 12.3% 15.5% C+ 68 +305

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Drake Baldwin L Edge

13.3% 4.2% 19.2% 13.4% D 49 +390

Austin Riley R

13.4% 5.4% 14.1% 12.6% D 46 +475

Ronald Acuna R

13.8% 15.4% 11.1% 13.4% D 45 —

Michael Harris L Edge

6.5% 14.5% 13.6% 10.4% D 44 —

124

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

7.6% 6.1% 7.5% 7.4% D 41 +525

125

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.7% 2.8% 1.7% 4.3% D 41 +525

157

Dominic Smith L Edge

5.8% 2.5% 7.4% 5.6% D 37 —

188

Mauricio Dubon R

2.8% 4.8% 5.5% 3.9% D 31 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (70.8% usage) carries Bradley's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Byron Buxton R

19.0% 16.9% C 58 +280

Kody Clemens L Edge

8.9% 11.4% C 54 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Royce Lewis R

14.6% 12.1% D 47 +425

Josh Bell S Edge

10.7% 9.9% D 45 +475

127

Brooks Lee S Edge

6.8% 3.6% D 41 +625

141

Trevor Larnach L Edge

7.9% 7.7% D 39 +525

181

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.8% 6.7% D 32 —

194

Luke Keaschall R

4.1% 3.1% D 30 +750

Read the columns: no single family leads Smith-Shawver's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Riley Clemens Bell Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Bradley fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Matt Olson +305 · 68

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 12:40p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 3 mph out 75°F open

↑

4 mph · out

68°F

12:40p

↑

5 mph · out

72°F

1:40p

↑

5 mph · out

75°F

2:40p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

79°F

3:40p

↑

5 mph · out

79°F

4:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.94× 75°F, wind 3 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Taj Bradley · RHP 1.26 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 68 C+ +305 WARM 5 0.288 92.5 12.1% 34.8%vs RHP 408 25.2% 38.5% 31.7% 29

2 Drake Baldwin 49 D +390 COOL 64 0.175 91.7 11.2% 25.5%vs RHP 403 17.0% 7.7% 12.3% 42

3 Austin Riley 46 D +475 HOT 82 0.148 91.3 10.9% 18.3%vs RHP 407 9.6% 15.4% 13.2% 26

4 Ronald Acuna 45 D — · 87 0.193 90.3 11.2% 23.7%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 19.9% 35

5 Michael Harris 44 D — COOL 95 0.191 90.7 10.1% 23.2%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 34

6 Mike Yastrzemski 41 D +525 WARM 124 0.161 90.6 8.3% 19.0%vs RHP 389 8.8% 0.0% 11.2% 19

7 Ozzie Albies 41 D +525 · 125 0.171 86.9 6.3% 14.0%vs RHP 386 14.3% 8.3% 10.4% 34

8 Dominic Smith 37 D — COOL 157 0.127 87.8 7.2% 15.1%vs RHP 392 8.2% 0.0% 10.2% 7

9 Mauricio Dubon 31 D +950 COOL 188 0.129 86.9 6.0% 10.7%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 36

vs AJ Smith-Shawver · RHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.56 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton 58 C +280 COOL 24 0.272 90.3 12.6% 31.8%vs RHP 402 27.1% 0.0% 12.9% 10

2 Kody Clemens 54 C +400 COOL 37 0.230 92.3 10.3% 19.3%vs RHP 391 17.5% 18.2% 15.9% 27

3 Royce Lewis 47 D +425 · 80 0.183 90.2 10.7% 16.7%vs RHP 400 15.7% 7.7% 8.2% 32

4 Josh Bell 45 D +475 · 90 0.168 89.9 9.6% 19.0%vs RHP 405 12.1% 23.1% 7.8% 40

5 Brooks Lee 41 D +625 · 127 0.177 87.8 5.8% 20.3%vs RHP 370 14.8% 16.7% 9.8% 34

6 Trevor Larnach 39 D +525 COOL 141 0.156 87.4 8.4% 15.2%vs RHP 397 9.3% 0.0% 6.9% 24

7 Victor Caratini 32 D — · 181 0.106 89.6 7.9% 16.2%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 15

8 Luke Keaschall 30 D +750 COOL 194 0.107 84.8 5.3% 10.4%vs RHP 371 6.5% 8.3% 5.4% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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