TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.18×

STL @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 6:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 6 mph slight_out 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

6:40p

+3 ↑

7:40p

+3 ↑

8:40p

+3 ↑

9:40p

+3 ↑

10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · +3 FIT

Best of game Alec Burleson conv 25 · vs Burns ⟷ Tyler Stephenson conv 18 · vs Liberatore → edge: Elly De La Cruz

ATTACK Chase Burns RHP · CIN

leak 87

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Alec Burleson — C ●●●●○

2 Jordan Walker — C ●●○○○

3 Blaze Jordan — D ●○○○○

FADE Matthew Liberatore LHP · STL

leak 73

1.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.53 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tyler Stephenson — C ●●●○○

2 Elly De La Cruz — C+ ●●●○○

3 Sal Stewart — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Elly De La Cruz: Match 21.4% · 14D pace 14.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· STL Alec Burleson vs Burns Edge — 0.204 · 92.1 · 9.2% 23.1% 27.0% F B O C 56

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Liberatore Edge — 0.171 · 91.2 · 10.2% 20.0% 16.5% F B O C 53

· CIN Elly De La Cruz ✶ COOL vs Liberatore Edge — 0.213 · 93.8 · 10.6% 14.3% 21.4% F B O C+ 60

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Liberatore Edge — 0.214 · 90.1 · 10.4% 14.3% 16.5% F B O C 59

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Burns — 0.211 · 92.6 · 9.8% 16.7% 13.6% F B O C 55

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Liberatore Edge — 0.209 · 88.7 · 9.8% 0.0% 27.0% F B O C 52

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Liberatore — 0.220 · 88.7 · 9.0% 0.0% 20.2% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· CIN Dane Myers vs Liberatore Edge — 0.117 · 89.6 · 6.5% 10.0% 11.7% F B O D 42

· STL Blaze Jordan COOL vs Burns — 0.133 · 88.8 · 8.1% 12.5% 6.4% F B O D 41

· CIN Matt Mclain vs Liberatore Edge — 0.151 · 87.8 · 9.1% 0.0% 18.7% F B O D 45

· STL Masyn Winn HOT vs Burns — 0.078 · 88.2 · 5.0% 8.3% 6.6% F B O D 31

· STL Bryan Torres COOL vs Burns Edge — 0.156 · 87.0 · 5.9% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 40

· CIN Jose Trevino COOL vs Liberatore Edge — 0.152 · 86.2 · 4.6% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 46

· STL Jimmy Crooks COOL vs Burns Edge — 0.147 · 91.1 · 8.3% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 42

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Burns Edge — 0.121 · 86.0 · 6.9% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 38

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Burns Edge — 0.131 · 89.6 · 7.2% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 37

· STL Ivan Herrera HOT vs Burns — 0.143 · 89.5 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.4% ← leak BRK 38.3% OFF 5.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.8% 11.2% 11.0% 11.5% C 56 —

Jordan Walker R

13.8% 11.1% 16.2% 13.1% C 55 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

137

Jimmy Crooks L Edge

10.0% 8.3% 7.7% 9.3% D 42 —

164

Blaze Jordan R

3.9% 12.8% 16.0% 8.5% D 41 —

166

Bryan Torres L Edge

7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% D 40 —

181

Nathan Church L Edge

7.8% 6.2% 4.5% 6.5% D 38 —

190

Ivan Herrera R

6.5% 4.7% 6.5% 5.9% D 37 —

192

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

9.7% 4.0% 1.9% 7.1% D 37 —

235

Masyn Winn R

3.7% 1.9% 5.9% 3.4% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.4% usage) carries Burns's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 43.6% BRK 41.3% OFF 14.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

17.7% 9.4% 4.8% 13.1% C+ 60 —

Sal Stewart R Edge

16.1% 9.4% 9.4% 12.9% C 59 —

Tyler Stephenson R Edge

15.8% 7.6% 5.6% 12.4% C 53 —

Eugenio Suarez R Edge

13.4% 7.0% 5.0% 11.2% C 52 —

Jj Bleday L

11.6% 6.8% 5.5% 9.2% C 51 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

102

Jose Trevino R Edge

0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 2.5% D 46 —

104

Matt Mclain R Edge

12.0% 8.6% 0.0% 9.7% D 45 —

133

Dane Myers R Edge

3.7% 6.7% 6.2% 4.9% D 42 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Liberatore's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Burleson Walker Cruz Stewart Stephenson Suarez

Legend

attack side — vs Burns fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Alec Burleson — · 56

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 6 mph slight_out 79°F open

↑

5 mph · slight_out

69°F

6:40p · peak

↑

5 mph · slight_out

69°F

7:40p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

69°F

8:40p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

69°F

9:40p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

69°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 79°F, wind 6 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Chase Burns · RHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Alec Burleson 56 C — WARM 35 0.204 92.1 9.2% 24.0%vs RHP 405 15.7% 23.1% 27.0% 36

2 Jordan Walker 55 C — COOL 42 0.211 92.6 9.8% 26.2%vs RHP 408 16.7% 16.7% 13.6% 40

3 Jimmy Crooks 42 D — COOL 137 0.147 91.1 8.3% 11.1%vs RHP 400 4.2% 0.0% 9.8% 17

4 Blaze Jordan 41 D — COOL 164 0.133 88.8 8.1% 5.6%vs RHP 413 4.0% 12.5% 6.4% 25

5 Bryan Torres 40 D — COOL 166 0.156 87.0 5.9% 22.2%vs RHP 370 7.4% 0.0% 12.0% 13

6 Nathan Church 38 D — COOL 181 0.121 86.0 6.9% 15.9%vs RHP 384 8.1% 0.0% 9.3% 32

7 Ivan Herrera 37 D — HOT 190 0.143 89.5 6.6% 17.4%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 40

8 Jj Wetherholt 37 D — · 192 0.131 89.6 7.2% 15.9%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 38

9 Masyn Winn 31 D — HOT 235 0.078 88.2 5.0% 8.5%vs RHP 390 4.2% 8.3% 6.6% 33

vs Matthew Liberatore · LHP 1.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.53 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz ✶ 60 C+ — COOL 22 0.213 93.8 10.6% 40.9%vs LHP 396 16.0% 14.3% 21.4% 35

2 Sal Stewart 59 C — COOL 26 0.214 90.1 10.4% 27.3%vs LHP 396 16.2% 14.3% 16.5% 43

3 Tyler Stephenson 53 C — WARM 48 0.171 91.2 10.2% 5.3%vs LHP 392 9.2% 20.0% 16.5% 22

4 Eugenio Suarez 52 C — WARM 50 0.209 88.7 9.8% 26.7%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 27.0% 31

5 Jj Bleday 51 C — COOL 57 0.220 88.7 9.0% 26.3%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 20.2% 35

6 Jose Trevino 46 D — COOL 102 0.152 86.2 4.6% 18.2% 382 15.0% 0.0% 10.6% 11

7 Matt Mclain 45 D — WARM 104 0.151 87.8 9.1% 22.7%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 18.7% 28

8 Dane Myers 42 D — · 133 0.117 89.6 6.5% 10.0%vs LHP 384 5.8% 10.0% 11.7% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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