TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ TEX

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WSH @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 10 mph out 102°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+13 ↑

7:05p

+13 ↑

8:05p

+12 ↑

9:05p

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10:05p

+12 ↑

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best window is early — 7:05p at +13

Best of game Daylen Lile conv 10 · vs Rocker ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 29 · vs Cavalli → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Kumar Rocker RHP · TEX

leak 84

1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · leakiest side of this game

1 Daylen Lile +575 D ●●○○○

2 Cj Abrams +350 C ●●○○○

3 Jacob Young +950 D ●○○○○

FADE Cade Cavalli RHP · WSH

leak 78

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson +425 C+ ●●●●○

2 Corey Seager +425 C ●●●○○

3 Jake Burger +525 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Cavalli Edge +425 0.249 · 92.2 · 9.1% 25.0% 32.6% F B O C+ 61

· TEX Corey Seager vs Cavalli Edge +425 0.187 · 91.5 · 10.6% 20.0% 20.1% F B O C 54

· TEX Jake Burger COOL vs Cavalli +525 0.186 · 89.9 · 8.9% 16.7% 20.3% F B O C 52

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Cavalli +500 0.211 · 89.4 · 7.6% 8.3% 14.8% F B O C 50

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Rocker Edge +350 0.251 · 89.4 · 8.7% 0.0% 19.8% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· TEX Brandon Nimmo vs Cavalli Edge +525 0.165 · 92.3 · 8.8% 16.7% 13.3% F B O D 48

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Rocker Edge +575 0.164 · 88.5 · 7.9% 9.1% 10.8% F B O D 47

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Rocker +950 0.153 · 88.3 · 6.7% 9.1% 10.4% F B O D 44

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Rocker +575 0.149 · 90.6 · 8.8% 9.1% 10.0% F B O D 48

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Cavalli +850 0.169 · 88.5 · 6.8% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 43

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Rocker Edge +750 0.159 · 88.4 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 42

· TEX Evan Carter vs Cavalli Edge +850 0.130 · 87.8 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 38

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Rocker Edge — 0.037 · 84.9 · 1.7% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.6% ← leak BRK 38.4% OFF 4.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Cj Abrams L Edge

10.2% 9.2% 12.2% 10.1% C 58 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Dylan Crews R

6.9% 21.6% 14.3% 10.4% D 48 +575

Daylen Lile L Edge

7.7% 13.0% 4.5% 8.4% D 47 +575

Jacob Young R

7.9% 3.7% 2.9% 6.1% D 44 +950

116

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

6.3% 3.1% 2.4% 4.7% D 42 +750

207

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.6% usage) carries Rocker's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.5% ← leak BRK 39.6% OFF 7.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Joc Pederson L Edge

14.5% 12.3% 3.5% 11.3% C+ 61 +425

Corey Seager L Edge

14.1% 16.3% 17.6% 15.4% C 54 +425

Jake Burger R

10.2% 11.8% 12.1% 11.0% C 52 +525

Wyatt Langford R

5.3% 11.3% 14.3% 7.9% C 50 +500

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

8.3% 17.4% 8.0% 10.6% D 48 +525

104

Ezequiel Duran R

8.2% 5.6% 0.0% 6.3% D 43 +850

148

Evan Carter L Edge

7.9% 4.4% 0.0% 5.8% D 38 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.5% usage) carries Cavalli's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Seager Burger Nimmo

Legend

attack side — vs Rocker fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Joc Pederson +425 · 61

Corey Seager +425 · 54

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 1.05× Wind 10 mph out 102°F retractable

+13

↑

10 mph · out

101°F

7:05p · peak

+13

↑

10 mph · out

99°F

8:05p

+12

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9 mph · out

97°F

9:05p

+11

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9 mph · out

95°F

10:05p

+12

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9 mph · out

93°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.58× 102°F, wind 10 mph S (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kumar Rocker · RHP 1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 58 C +350 COOL 22 0.251 89.4 8.7% 30.3%vs RHP 395 33.3% 0.0% 19.8% 31

2 Dylan Crews 48 D +575 · 71 0.149 90.6 8.8% 12.8%vs RHP 407 16.4% 9.1% 10.0% 29

3 Daylen Lile 47 D +575 WARM 79 0.164 88.5 7.9% 12.5%vs RHP 400 9.9% 9.1% 10.8% 32

4 Jacob Young 44 D +950 COOL 96 0.153 88.3 6.7% 13.7%vs RHP 399 8.0% 9.1% 10.4% 31

5 Keibert Ruiz 42 D +750 · 116 0.159 88.4 5.9% 7.4%vs RHP 377 8.6% 0.0% 9.6% 21

6 Nasim Nunez 24 D — WARM 207 0.037 84.9 1.7% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 25

vs Cade Cavalli · RHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 61 C+ +425 WARM 15 0.249 92.2 9.1% 30.6%vs RHP 396 21.8% 25.0% 32.6% 15

2 Corey Seager 54 C +425 · 35 0.187 91.5 10.6% 21.7%vs RHP 395 16.7% 20.0% 20.1% 27

3 Jake Burger 52 C +525 COOL 41 0.186 89.9 8.9% 22.4%vs RHP 400 15.9% 16.7% 20.3% 26

4 Wyatt Langford 50 C +500 COOL 52 0.211 89.4 7.6% 22.7%vs RHP 398 16.3% 8.3% 14.8% 26

5 Brandon Nimmo 48 D +525 WARM 68 0.165 92.3 8.8% 12.5%vs RHP 403 10.4% 16.7% 13.3% 32

6 Ezequiel Duran 43 D +850 COOL 104 0.169 88.5 6.8% 21.1%vs RHP 393 12.0% 0.0% 11.7% 26

7 Evan Carter 38 D +850 · 148 0.130 87.8 6.5% 12.7%vs RHP 374 7.6% 0.0% 8.4% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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