TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ NYM

Citi Field is live · 1.32×

SD @ NYM

Citi Field · 1:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 8 mph out 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

1:10p

+8 ↑

2:10p

+8 ↑

3:10p

+9 ↑

4:10p

+9 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 4:10p window peaks +9

Best of game Francisco Lindor conv 22 · vs King ⟷ Jackson Merrill conv 20 · vs Stock → edge: Francisco Lindor

ATTACK Michael King RHP · SD

leak 78

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Francisco Lindor +425 C ●●●○○

2 Brett Baty — D ●●●○○

3 Marcus Semien +625 D ●●○○○

FADE Robert Stock RHP · WSH

leak 3

0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.85 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Merrill +425 D ●●●○○

2 Gavin Sheets +525 D ●●●○○

3 Xander Bogaerts +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Francisco Lindor: 9.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Francisco Lindor ✶ vs King Edge +425 0.194 · 91.4 · 9.1% 23.1% 20.3% F B O C 50

· — Ty France COOL vs Stock +525 0.220 · 92.3 · 8.9% 7.7% 11.3% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· — Jackson Merrill vs Stock Edge +425 0.170 · 90.6 · 9.3% 23.1% 17.2% F B O D 49

· — Gavin Sheets vs Stock Edge +525 0.182 · 87.5 · 7.5% 18.2% 20.6% F B O D 46

· NYM Brett Baty vs King Edge — 0.116 · 89.8 · 8.6% 25.0% 12.9% F B O D 41

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs King +625 0.143 · 86.4 · 7.7% 18.2% 11.7% F B O D 41

· NYM Carson Benge vs King Edge +625 0.142 · 89.5 · 8.0% 16.7% 10.0% F B O D 42

· — Xander Bogaerts HOT vs Stock +750 0.107 · 88.6 · 6.9% 15.4% 8.2% F B O D 36

· — Manny Machado COOL vs Stock +400 0.194 · 90.8 · 8.7% 7.7% 9.8% F B O D 48

· NYM Bo Bichette vs King +700 0.119 · 89.4 · 7.3% 7.7% 7.2% F B O D 37

· — Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Stock Edge +700 0.075 · 87.3 · 5.3% 7.7% 6.8% F B O D 30

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs King +525 0.177 · 90.2 · 11.8% 0.0% 14.3% F B O D 45

· — Fernando Tatis HOT vs Stock — 0.141 · 92.5 · 9.5% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 39

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs King Edge +750 0.126 · 89.9 · 8.2% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 35

· — Freddy Fermin vs Stock — 0.117 · 87.6 · 5.6% 0.0% 5.1% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.2% ← leak OFF 28.2% BRK 24.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.4% 6.5% 7.9% 9.7% C 50 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Francisco Alvarez R

16.8% 17.4% 15.5% 16.4% D 45 +525

114

Carson Benge L Edge

7.1% 6.6% 9.2% 7.5% D 42 +625

121

Marcus Semien R

9.6% 7.1% 2.1% 6.9% D 41 +625

123

Brett Baty L Edge

8.1% 4.0% 12.7% 8.3% D 41 —

158

Bo Bichette R

4.9% 0.0% 10.6% 6.2% D 37 +700

169

A.J. Ewing L Edge

8.5% 0.0% 12.7% 8.0% D 35 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.2% usage) carries King's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 78.2% ← leak OFF 12.8% BRK 9.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Ty France R

10.3% 10.0% 10.5% 10.3% C 50 +525

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jackson Merrill L Edge

13.6% 6.8% 10.7% 11.3% D 49 +425

Manny Machado R

12.0% 9.3% 6.1% 10.0% D 48 +400

Gavin Sheets L Edge

9.9% 1.7% 6.0% 7.3% D 46 +525

136

Fernando Tatis R

10.1% 15.9% 13.6% 11.7% D 39 —

164

Xander Bogaerts R

7.2% 3.4% 4.6% 6.2% D 36 +750

179

Freddy Fermin R

3.0% 9.1% 5.3% 4.0% D 33 —

197

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

4.1% 3.6% 2.6% 3.7% D 30 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (78.2% usage) carries Stock's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lindor Benge Semien Baty Merrill Sheets

Legend

attack side — vs King fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Francisco Lindor +425 · 50

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 8 mph out 86°F open

↑

8 mph · out

83°F

1:10p

↑

9 mph · out

85°F

2:10p

↑

9 mph · out

86°F

3:10p

↑

10 mph · out

87°F

4:10p · peak

↑

10 mph · out

88°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.32× 86°F, wind 8 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael King · RHP 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor ✶ 50 C +425 · 51 0.194 91.4 9.1% 18.2%vs RHP 397 12.9% 23.1% 20.3% 32

2 Francisco Alvarez 45 D +525 · 86 0.177 90.2 11.8% 27.5%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 17

3 Carson Benge 42 D +625 · 114 0.142 89.5 8.0% 14.7%vs RHP 399 9.9% 16.7% 10.0% 34

4 Marcus Semien 41 D +625 COOL 121 0.143 86.4 7.7% 17.5%vs RHP 391 11.8% 18.2% 11.7% 30

5 Brett Baty 41 D — WARM 123 0.116 89.8 8.6% 13.3%vs RHP 397 7.1% 25.0% 12.9% 16

6 Bo Bichette 37 D +700 · 158 0.119 89.4 7.3% 10.0%vs RHP 389 8.9% 7.7% 7.2% 38

7 A.J. Ewing 35 D +750 WARM 169 0.126 89.9 8.2% 11.9%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 30

vs Robert Stock · RHP 0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.85 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 50 C +525 COOL 53 0.220 92.3 8.9% 28.6%vs RHP 392 15.5% 7.7% 11.3% 35

2 Jackson Merrill 49 D +425 WARM 59 0.170 90.6 9.3% 20.2%vs RHP 412 15.1% 23.1% 17.2% 34

3 Manny Machado 48 D +400 COOL 74 0.194 90.8 8.7% 26.8%vs RHP 397 18.2% 7.7% 9.8% 37

4 Gavin Sheets 46 D +525 WARM 81 0.182 87.5 7.5% 30.9%vs RHP 395 10.9% 18.2% 20.6% 21

5 Fernando Tatis 39 D — HOT 136 0.141 92.5 9.5% 13.6%vs RHP 413 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 39

6 Xander Bogaerts 36 D +750 HOT 164 0.107 88.6 6.9% 17.0%vs RHP 400 8.5% 15.4% 8.2% 29

7 Freddy Fermin 33 D — WARM 179 0.117 87.6 5.6% 6.7%vs RHP 382 2.8% 0.0% 5.1% 12

8 Jake Cronenworth 30 D +700 COOL 197 0.075 87.3 5.3% 9.4%vs RHP 392 2.6% 7.7% 6.8% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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