TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ MIL

Suppressed air · 0.90×

PIT @ MIL

American Family Field · 7:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 6 mph cross 69°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-4 ↑

6:40p

-4 ↑

7:40p

-4 ↑

8:40p

-3 ↑

9:40p

-3 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 9:40p window peaks -3

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 19 · vs Skenes ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 14 · vs Harrison → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Paul Skenes RHP · PIT

leak 59

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers — C ●●●○○

2 Brice Turang +575 D ●●○○○

3 Jackson Chourio +400 D ●●○○○

FADE Kyle Harrison LHP · MIL

leak 11

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe +425 D ●●○○○

2 Nick Gonzales +750 D ●●○○○

3 Bryan Reynolds +400 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 13.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ COOL vs Skenes Edge — 0.233 · 92.6 · 9.8% 16.7% 21.3% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Skenes Edge +575 0.188 · 90.5 · 7.7% 16.7% 13.4% F B O D 41

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Harrison +425 0.228 · 90.9 · 9.1% 15.4% 12.6% F B O D 48

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Harrison Edge +750 0.092 · 86.1 · 4.5% 14.3% 6.4% F B O D 27

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Skenes +400 0.188 · 91.9 · 9.5% 8.3% 11.9% F B O D 43

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Harrison Edge +400 0.177 · 90.8 · 8.7% 7.1% 11.0% F B O D 41

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Skenes Edge +700 0.140 · 88.9 · 8.3% 10.0% 7.5% F B O D 35

· PIT Jake Mangum COOL vs Harrison Edge — 0.074 · 85.1 · 3.0% 7.7% 5.9% F B O D 22

· PIT Spencer Horwitz vs Harrison — 0.171 · 87.0 · 7.5% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 37

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Skenes Edge +525 0.162 · 92.7 · 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 39

· MIL William Contreras COOL vs Skenes +500 0.121 · 89.7 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 32

· PIT Marcell Ozuna COOL vs Harrison Edge +500 0.123 · 89.1 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 32

· MIL Joey Ortiz COOL vs Skenes — 0.116 · 87.9 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 28

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Harrison Edge +850 0.066 · 87.4 · 3.9% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 60.1% ← leak BRK 30.0% OFF 9.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Brandon Lowe L

16.0% 8.2% 9.1% 12.1% D 48 +425

135

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.2% 14.7% 7.4% 11.2% D 41 +400

161

Spencer Horwitz L

8.3% 7.3% 10.7% 8.3% D 37 —

184

Marcell Ozuna R Edge

8.0% 9.7% 0.0% 7.7% D 32 +500

204

Nick Gonzales R Edge

2.4% 5.1% 0.0% 3.0% D 27 +750

207

Jake Mangum S Edge

2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 22 —

208

Jared Triolo R Edge

2.7% 2.8% 0.0% 2.3% D 22 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.1% usage) carries Harrison's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.0% ← leak OFF 24.9% BRK 22.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jake Bauers L Edge

13.8% 12.9% 13.8% 13.7% C 51 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

122

Jackson Chourio R

13.0% 3.4% 13.7% 12.1% D 43 +400

134

Brice Turang L Edge

10.0% 1.8% 9.2% 8.3% D 41 +575

147

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

16.9% 7.4% 11.7% 14.1% D 39 +525

174

Christian Yelich L Edge

8.3% 12.5% 10.9% 9.5% D 35 +700

188

William Contreras R

8.2% 0.0% 7.5% 7.3% D 32 +500

202

Joey Ortiz R

3.3% 0.0% 5.9% 3.9% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.0% usage) carries Skenes's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Bauers Turang

Legend

attack side — vs Skenes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.90× Wind 6 mph cross 69°F retractable

-4

↑

4 mph · cross

73°F

6:40p

-4

↑

4 mph · cross

72°F

7:40p

-4

↑

3 mph · cross

72°F

8:40p

-3

↑

2 mph · cross

71°F

9:40p · peak

-3

↑

2 mph · cross

71°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.90× 69°F, wind 6 mph SW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kyle Harrison · LHP 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 48 D +425 · 86 0.228 90.9 9.1% 14.8%vs LHP 393 15.7% 15.4% 12.6% 36

2 Bryan Reynolds 41 D +400 · 135 0.177 90.8 8.7% 20.0%vs LHP 409 12.6% 7.1% 11.0% 39

3 Spencer Horwitz 37 D — WARM 161 0.171 87.0 7.5% 14.3%vs LHP 395 11.6% 0.0% 10.4% 7

4 Marcell Ozuna 32 D +500 COOL 184 0.123 89.1 7.1% 21.1%vs LHP 404 8.3% 0.0% 8.2% 18

5 Nick Gonzales 27 D +750 WARM 204 0.092 86.1 4.5% 3.9%vs LHP 397 7.4% 14.3% 6.4% 52

6 Jake Mangum 22 D — COOL 207 0.074 85.1 3.0% 0.0%vs LHP 384 4.3% 7.7% 5.9% 38

7 Jared Triolo 22 D +850 COOL 208 0.066 87.4 3.9% 0.0%vs LHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 21

vs Paul Skenes · RHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 51 C — COOL 61 0.233 92.6 9.8% 35.1%vs RHP 402 20.2% 16.7% 21.3% 30

2 Jackson Chourio 43 D +400 COOL 122 0.188 91.9 9.5% 17.2%vs RHP 402 15.1% 8.3% 11.9% 40

3 Brice Turang 41 D +575 COOL 134 0.188 90.5 7.7% 28.1%vs RHP 407 11.9% 16.7% 13.4% 36

4 Garrett Mitchell 39 D +525 · 147 0.162 92.7 10.0% 25.8%vs RHP 415 7.7% 0.0% 10.0% 22

5 Christian Yelich 35 D +700 WARM 174 0.140 88.9 8.3% 14.3%vs RHP 404 6.8% 10.0% 7.5% 34

6 William Contreras 32 D +500 COOL 188 0.121 89.7 7.2% 17.2%vs RHP 419 8.8% 0.0% 8.3% 35

7 Joey Ortiz 28 D — COOL 202 0.116 87.9 5.3% 12.1%vs RHP 395 5.5% 0.0% 7.8% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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