TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ SEA

Playable air · 1.09×

DET @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 9:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 6 mph cross 82°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-2 ↑

6:40p

-2 ↑

7:40p

-3 ↑

8:40p

-4 ↑

9:40p

-4 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -2

Best of game Randy Arozarena conv 23 · vs Anderson ⟷ Kevin Mcgonigle conv 37 · vs Woo → edge: Dominic Canzone

ATTACK Drew Anderson RHP

leak 69

1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.52 · leakiest side of this game

1 Randy Arozarena +500 D ●●●●○

2 Dominic Canzone +400 C ●●●○○

3 Cal Raleigh +330 D ●●●○○

FADE Bryan Woo RHP · SEA

leak 34

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kevin Mcgonigle +425 D ●●●●●

2 Gleyber Torres +750 D ●●●○○

3 Dillon Dingler +475 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dominic Canzone: Match 28.1% · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Dominic Canzone ✶ COOL vs Anderson Edge +400 0.253 · 91.9 · 10.5% 16.7% 28.1% F B O C 59

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Woo +475 0.248 · 89.0 · 8.5% 18.2% 19.6% F B O C 54

· DET Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Woo +425 0.205 · 89.5 · 9.4% 18.2% 14.9% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Woo Edge +425 0.141 · 88.0 · 7.0% 66.7% 7.7% F B O D 41

· — Randy Arozarena vs Anderson +500 0.172 · 91.2 · 7.9% 25.0% 21.3% F B O D 48

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Woo +750 0.141 · 86.0 · 7.2% 30.0% 13.7% F B O D 41

· — Cal Raleigh HOT vs Anderson Edge +330 0.146 · 88.7 · 9.9% 18.2% 14.4% F B O D 46

· DET Riley Greene COOL vs Woo Edge +320 0.183 · 91.0 · 10.0% 9.1% 11.1% F B O D 47

· — Julio Rodríguez COOL vs Anderson +425 0.158 · 90.0 · 8.1% 8.3% 11.6% F B O D 45

· — Cole Young vs Anderson Edge +525 0.150 · 89.0 · 6.4% 8.3% 9.5% F B O D 40

· — Colt Emerson COOL vs Anderson Edge +750 0.146 · 86.0 · 6.0% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 38

· DET Colt Keith COOL vs Woo Edge +575 0.151 · 88.7 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 37

· — Josh Naylor COOL vs Anderson Edge +575 0.096 · 87.7 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 32

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Woo Edge +950 0.110 · 85.4 · 4.3% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.8% ← leak BRK 28.7% OFF 6.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Dillon Dingler R

12.6% 10.3% 7.1% 11.3% C 54 +475

Spencer Torkelson R

13.7% 11.3% 13.6% 13.1% C 50 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Riley Greene L Edge

16.3% 16.9% 9.4% 15.1% D 47 +320

133

Gleyber Torres R

9.3% 5.1% 0.0% 7.5% D 41 +750

139

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

8.6% 7.0% 1.8% 7.2% D 41 +425

164

Colt Keith L Edge

7.0% 14.6% 3.6% 7.5% D 37 +575

199

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.7% 1.8% 0.0% 2.7% D 29 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.8% usage) carries Woo's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 40.2% OFF 31.1% BRK 27.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dominic Canzone L Edge

17.2% 8.2% 15.0% 14.3% C 59 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Randy Arozarena R

8.2% 7.8% 8.0% 8.1% D 48 +500

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.5% 15.0% 15.6% 12.6% D 46 +330

108

Julio Rodríguez R

8.7% 7.7% 8.4% 8.5% D 45 +425

142

Cole Young L Edge

4.6% 2.0% 9.3% 5.2% D 40 +525

155

Colt Emerson L Edge

4.6% 4.0% 5.1% 4.7% D 38 +750

190

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.0% 1.8% 7.4% 4.4% D 32 +575

Read the columns: no single family leads Anderson's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Dingler Torkelson Torres Mcgonigle Canzone Arozarena Raleigh

Legend

attack side — vs Anderson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Randy Arozarena +500 · 48

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.99× Wind 6 mph cross 82°F retractable

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

80°F

6:40p · peak

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

77°F

7:40p

-3

↑

5 mph · cross

75°F

8:40p

-4

↑

5 mph · cross

72°F

9:40p

-4

↑

5 mph · in

70°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.09× 82°F, wind 6 mph N (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bryan Woo · RHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 54 C +475 COOL 47 0.248 89.0 8.5% 32.3%vs RHP 397 20.2% 18.2% 19.6% 35

2 Spencer Torkelson 50 C +425 COOL 69 0.205 89.5 9.4% 25.4%vs RHP 394 16.5% 18.2% 14.9% 36

3 Riley Greene 47 D +320 COOL 93 0.183 91.0 10.0% 17.1%vs RHP 399 12.7% 9.1% 11.1% 33

4 Gleyber Torres 41 D +750 WARM 133 0.141 86.0 7.2% 15.6%vs RHP 392 10.4% 30.0% 13.7% 30

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 41 D +425 COOL 139 0.141 88.0 7.0% 8.7%vs RHP 399 25.0% 66.7% 7.7% 40

6 Colt Keith 37 D +575 COOL 164 0.151 88.7 7.2% 12.7%vs RHP 389 6.5% 0.0% 8.6% 29

7 Zach Mckinstry 29 D +950 WARM 199 0.110 85.4 4.3% 7.1%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 35

vs Drew Anderson · RHP 1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.52 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone ✶ 59 C +400 COOL 24 0.253 91.9 10.5% 27.3%vs RHP 403 16.9% 16.7% 28.1% 37

2 Randy Arozarena 48 D +500 · 83 0.172 91.2 7.9% 25.0%vs RHP 391 12.7% 25.0% 21.3% 40

3 Cal Raleigh 46 D +330 HOT 98 0.146 88.7 9.9% 12.5%vs RHP 395 13.5% 18.2% 14.4% 24

4 Julio Rodríguez 45 D +425 COOL 108 0.158 90.0 8.1% 16.0%vs RHP 409 15.5% 8.3% 11.6% 41

5 Cole Young 40 D +525 WARM 142 0.150 89.0 6.4% 17.9%vs RHP 387 11.9% 8.3% 9.5% 43

6 Colt Emerson 38 D +750 COOL 155 0.146 86.0 6.0% 29.4%vs RHP 369 8.7% 0.0% 10.5% 26

7 Josh Naylor 32 D +575 COOL 190 0.096 87.7 5.9% 12.1%vs RHP 390 6.5% 0.0% 7.6% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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