TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.26×

WSH @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.15× Wind 4 mph out 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

+11 ↑

6:40p

+9 ↑

7:40p

+8 ↑

8:40p

+9 ↑

9:40p

+10 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +11

Best of game Daylen Lile conv 20 · vs Painter ⟷ Bryce Harper conv 31 · vs Irvin → edge: Bryce Harper

ATTACK Andrew Painter RHP · PHI

leak 88

1.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.80 · leakiest side of this game

1 Daylen Lile +370 C ●●●○○

2 Cj Abrams +330 C+ ●●●○○

3 Dylan Crews +475 C ●●●○○

FADE Jake Irvin RHP · WSH

leak 66

1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · stingy — thin edge

1 Bryce Harper +225 B ●●●●●

2 Trea Turner +475 C ●●○○○

3 Kyle Schwarber +186 B ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Bryce Harper: 11.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Bryce Harper ✶ vs Irvin Edge +225 0.246 · 90.3 · 11.9% 25.0% 36.8% F B O B 71

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Painter Edge +370 0.172 · 88.2 · 8.6% 18.2% 21.6% F B O C 57

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Painter Edge +330 0.264 · 89.7 · 10.0% 0.0% 38.0% F B O C+ 69

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Painter +475 0.156 · 90.8 · 9.6% 16.7% 17.1% F B O C 58

· PHI Trea Turner vs Irvin +475 0.152 · 88.8 · 8.9% 16.7% 13.0% F B O C 54

· PHI Kyle Schwarber COOL vs Irvin Edge +186 0.283 · 93.3 · 14.5% 0.0% 22.5% F B O B 74

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Irvin Edge +525 0.155 · 89.4 · 9.1% 8.3% 10.0% F B O C 51

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Irvin Edge +320 0.171 · 89.5 · 10.2% 0.0% 13.0% F B O C 55

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Painter +850 0.147 · 88.5 · 7.7% 0.0% 12.2% F B O C 50

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Painter Edge +525 0.171 · 88.5 · 6.6% 0.0% 11.7% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 4 long shots

· PHI Alec Bohm COOL vs Irvin +575 0.134 · 90.6 · 7.7% 8.3% 10.8% F B O D 49

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Irvin +575 0.134 · — · 7.9% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 44

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Irvin Edge +750 0.081 · 86.6 · 3.1% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 35

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Painter Edge +950 0.041 · 84.5 · 1.9% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 43.0% ← leak BRK 42.5% OFF 13.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Cj Abrams L Edge

11.3% 9.2% 13.0% 10.8% C+ 69 +330

Dylan Crews R

6.6% 24.2% 11.1% 10.4% C 58 +475

Daylen Lile L Edge

8.5% 11.0% 3.6% 8.0% C 57 +370

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

6.2% 3.4% 2.5% 4.7% C 51 +525

Jacob Young R

8.3% 4.2% 3.1% 6.4% C 50 +850

Long shots · 1 — below the fade line

194

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 31 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.0% usage) carries Painter's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.4% ← leak BRK 33.5% OFF 5.0% Overall Score

Prime targets · 2

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

16.9% 14.7% 26.9% 17.3% B 74 +186

Bryce Harper L Edge

11.8% 14.7% 6.6% 11.8% B 71 +225

Neutral · 3

Brandon Marsh L Edge

7.8% 13.6% 2.4% 8.6% C 55 +320

Trea Turner R

8.5% 4.5% 2.6% 6.6% C 54 +475

Bryson Stott L Edge

8.8% 4.5% 5.3% 6.9% C 51 +525

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Alec Bohm R

4.7% 4.2% 8.8% 4.9% D 49 +575

113

J.T. Realmuto R

4.3% 7.4% 5.6% 5.2% D 44 +575

173

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% D 35 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.4% usage) carries Irvin's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Abrams Crews Lile Harper Turner

Legend

attack side — vs Painter fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Bryce Harper +225 · 71

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.15× Wind 4 mph out 83°F open

+11

↑

5 mph · out

82°F

6:40p · peak

↑

3 mph · out

81°F

7:40p

↑

3 mph · out

80°F

8:40p

↑

4 mph · out

78°F

9:40p

+10

↑

5 mph · out

77°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.26× 83°F, wind 4 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Painter · RHP 1.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.80 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 69 C+ +330 · 7 0.264 89.7 10.0% 31.5%vs RHP 396 33.3% 0.0% 38.0% 33

2 Dylan Crews 58 C +475 WARM 29 0.156 90.8 9.6% 15.2%vs RHP 406 18.0% 16.7% 17.1% 30

3 Daylen Lile 57 C +370 · 33 0.172 88.2 8.6% 13.2%vs RHP 400 10.0% 18.2% 21.6% 34

4 Keibert Ruiz 51 C +525 COOL 65 0.171 88.5 6.6% 7.8%vs RHP 377 9.8% 0.0% 11.7% 28

5 Jacob Young 50 C +850 COOL 73 0.147 88.5 7.7% 16.7%vs RHP 396 7.8% 0.0% 12.2% 21

6 Nasim Nunez 31 D +950 COOL 194 0.041 84.5 1.9% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 35

vs Jake Irvin · RHP 1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber 74 B +186 COOL 2 0.283 93.3 14.5% 41.2%vs RHP 403 23.1% 0.0% 22.5% 21

2 Bryce Harper ✶ 71 B +225 WARM 5 0.246 90.3 11.9% 37.0%vs RHP 403 20.2% 25.0% 36.8% 28

3 Brandon Marsh 55 C +320 COOL 44 0.171 89.5 10.2% 21.3%vs RHP 393 12.7% 0.0% 13.0% 31

4 Trea Turner 54 C +475 · 50 0.152 88.8 8.9% 21.3%vs RHP 393 14.0% 16.7% 13.0% 41

5 Bryson Stott 51 C +525 WARM 64 0.155 89.4 9.1% 9.5%vs RHP 389 7.7% 8.3% 10.0% 30

6 Alec Bohm 49 D +575 COOL 80 0.134 90.6 7.7% 16.7%vs RHP 396 11.3% 8.3% 10.8% 41

7 J.T. Realmuto 44 D +575 WARM 113 0.134 — 7.9% 19.4%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 21

8 Justin Crawford 35 D +750 COOL 173 0.081 86.6 3.1% 5.3%vs RHP 382 2.5% 0.0% 7.9% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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