TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.15×

TB @ COL

Coors Field · 3:10p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 6 mph cross 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

1:10p

-1 ↑

2:10p

+1 ↑

3:10p

+2 ↑

4:10p

+3 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks +3

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 23 · vs Sugano ⟷ Mickey Moniak conv 30 · vs Martinez → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Tomoyuki Sugano RHP · COL

leak 64

1.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.84 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +210 B ●●●●○

2 Richie Palacios +850 D ●●○○○

3 Cedric Mullins +390 D ●●○○○

FADE Nick Martinez RHP · TB

leak 64

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.38 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mickey Moniak +330 C+ ●●●●●

2 Willi Castro +575 D ●●●●○

3 Hunter Goodman +280 C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 15.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Martinez Edge +330 0.296 · 89.3 · 9.2% 30.0% 29.3% F B O C+ 64

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Sugano +210 0.267 · 93.1 · 13.5% 15.4% 30.5% F B O B 72

· COL Hunter Goodman COOL vs Martinez +280 0.293 · 90.8 · 11.2% 10.0% 34.3% F B O C+ 68

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Sugano Edge +290 0.148 · 91.1 · 11.6% 0.0% 11.1% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· COL Willi Castro vs Martinez Edge +575 0.160 · 87.7 · 7.8% 33.3% 17.4% F B O D 49

· TB Richie Palacios vs Sugano Edge +850 0.117 · 85.9 · 7.6% 12.5% 16.0% F B O D 44

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Sugano Edge +390 0.155 · 87.9 · 7.2% 10.0% 12.1% F B O D 48

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Martinez +625 0.129 · 87.4 · 7.0% 12.5% 8.4% F B O D 41

· TB Ben Williamson COOL vs Sugano — 0.085 · 87.2 · 4.4% 10.0% 8.9% F B O D 37

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Martinez Edge +750 0.200 · 84.9 · 6.0% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 45

· COL Kyle Karros COOL vs Martinez +525 0.158 · 89.8 · 7.7% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 45

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Martinez Edge +575 0.169 · 83.6 · 6.0% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 41

· TB Yandy Diaz COOL vs Sugano +500 0.158 · 90.8 · 9.5% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 47

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Sugano — 0.108 · 85.8 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 39

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Sugano Edge — 0.058 · 83.9 · — 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 24

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Martinez Edge — 0.107 · 89.6 · 3.8% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 33

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Sugano Edge +750 0.068 · 85.3 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 35

· COL Tyler Freeman COOL vs Martinez — 0.067 · 87.8 · 3.1% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.7% ← leak BRK 27.0% OFF 21.3% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Junior Caminero R

17.5% 11.2% 6.0% 13.6% B 72 +210

Neutral · 1

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

10.7% 13.2% 5.2% 10.2% C 52 +290

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.0% 3.5% 8.3% 3.9% D 48 +390

Yandy Diaz R

5.6% 10.5% 4.4% 7.1% D 47 +500

115

Richie Palacios L Edge

5.7% 2.1% 3.4% 4.4% D 44 +850

150

Nick Fortes R

3.0% 1.9% 0.0% 2.4% D 39 —

163

Ben Williamson R

2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% D 37 —

175

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 35 +750

205

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.7% usage) carries Sugano's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 63.6% ← leak OFF 27.1% BRK 9.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Hunter Goodman R

18.9% 10.3% 14.9% 16.5% C+ 68 +280

Mickey Moniak L Edge

9.3% 2.3% 22.7% 10.8% C+ 64 +330

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Willi Castro S Edge

10.6% 5.9% 6.2% 8.4% D 49 +575

105

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

5.6% 6.8% 1.5% 4.8% D 45 +750

110

Kyle Karros R

7.7% 12.0% 4.9% 7.4% D 45 +525

131

Tj Rumfield L Edge

5.8% 5.6% 2.0% 4.6% D 41 +575

138

Ezequiel Tovar R

5.7% 8.3% 7.1% 6.4% D 41 +625

183

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 1.9% D 33 —

200

Tyler Freeman R

2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.6% usage) carries Martinez's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Palacios Goodman Moniak Castro

Legend

attack side — vs Sugano fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Mickey Moniak +330 · 64

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.04× Wind 6 mph cross 79°F open

-1

↑

6 mph · cross

74°F

1:10p

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

80°F

2:10p

↑

7 mph · cross

86°F

3:10p

↑

8 mph · cross

84°F

4:10p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

83°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.15× 79°F, wind 6 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tomoyuki Sugano · RHP 1.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.84 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 72 B +210 · 4 0.267 93.1 13.5% 39.7%vs RHP 411 26.4% 15.4% 30.5% 40

2 Jonathan Aranda 52 C +290 · 59 0.148 91.1 11.6% 17.9%vs RHP 387 11.4% 0.0% 11.1% 33

3 Cedric Mullins 48 D +390 COOL 87 0.155 87.9 7.2% 21.0%vs RHP 389 13.6% 10.0% 12.1% 26

4 Yandy Diaz 47 D +500 COOL 89 0.158 90.8 9.5% 21.4%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 38

5 Richie Palacios 44 D +850 WARM 115 0.117 85.9 7.6% 14.7%vs RHP 398 5.2% 12.5% 16.0% 18

6 Nick Fortes 39 D — COOL 150 0.108 85.8 5.5% 14.3%vs RHP 396 4.9% 0.0% 8.2% 18

7 Ben Williamson 37 D — COOL 163 0.085 87.2 4.4% 20.0%vs RHP 392 3.8% 10.0% 8.9% 25

8 Taylor Walls 35 D +750 COOL 175 0.068 85.3 5.9% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 18

9 Chandler Simpson 24 D — COOL 205 0.058 83.9 — 3.2%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 43

vs Nick Martinez · RHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.38 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman 68 C+ +280 COOL 9 0.293 90.8 11.2% 41.3%vs RHP 411 24.2% 10.0% 34.3% 20

2 Mickey Moniak 64 C+ +330 · 16 0.296 89.3 9.2% 24.2%vs RHP 419 18.9% 30.0% 29.3% 29

3 Willi Castro 49 D +575 WARM 77 0.160 87.7 7.8% 16.1%vs RHP 413 11.8% 33.3% 17.4% 25

4 Jake Mccarthy 45 D +750 COOL 105 0.200 84.9 6.0% 15.4%vs RHP 415 13.3% 0.0% 12.8% 42

5 Kyle Karros 45 D +525 COOL 110 0.158 89.8 7.7% 23.5%vs RHP 417 10.2% 0.0% 11.1% 21

6 Tj Rumfield 41 D +575 COOL 131 0.169 83.6 6.0% 16.7%vs RHP 410 6.7% 0.0% 11.0% 33

7 Ezequiel Tovar 41 D +625 · 138 0.129 87.4 7.0% 15.8%vs RHP 408 8.1% 12.5% 8.4% 22

8 Troy Johnston 33 D — COOL 183 0.107 89.6 3.8% 7.1%vs RHP 415 1.2% 0.0% 7.4% 20

9 Tyler Freeman 29 D — COOL 200 0.067 87.8 3.1% 3.7%vs RHP 369 1.9% 0.0% 6.9% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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