TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.28×

ATH @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 6:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 4 mph out 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

6:40p

+8 ↑

7:40p

+7 ↑

8:40p

+5 ↑

9:40p

+4 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +9

Best of game Jj Bleday conv 66 · vs Lopez ⟷ Tyler Soderstrom conv 12 · vs Lowder → edge: Jj Bleday

ATTACK Jacob Lopez LHP · ATH

leak 79

1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jj Bleday +350 C ●●●●●

2 Sal Stewart +305 C+ ●●●●●

3 Elly De La Cruz +290 C ●●○○○

FADE Rhett Lowder RHP · CIN

leak 64

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tyler Soderstrom +320 C ●●○○○

2 Lawrence Butler +370 D ●○○○○

3 Henry Bolte +525 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jj Bleday: 10.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 100.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Jj Bleday ✶ vs Lopez +350 0.235 · 88.7 · 7.4% 100.0% 31.5% F B O C 59

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Lopez Edge +305 0.224 · 90.5 · 8.4% 41.7% 30.3% F B O C+ 64

· CIN Elly De La Cruz vs Lopez Edge +290 0.221 · 94.3 · 8.6% 7.7% 20.1% F B O C 59

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom vs Lowder Edge +320 0.217 · 90.5 · 9.2% 8.3% 15.1% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Lopez Edge +350 0.185 · 88.7 · 7.3% 0.0% 19.7% F B O D 48

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Lopez Edge +350 0.159 · 91.2 · 7.8% 9.1% 9.3% F B O D 49

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Lowder Edge +370 0.113 · 89.1 · 7.9% 9.1% 8.8% F B O D 42

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs Lowder +525 0.090 · 90.5 · 8.0% 9.1% 6.5% F B O D 42

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Lowder Edge +475 0.150 · 89.9 · 8.0% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 44

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Lopez Edge +500 0.134 · 88.3 · 6.7% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 43

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Lowder Edge +525 0.080 · 86.3 · 3.1% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 32

· ATH Jacob Wilson COOL vs Lowder +950 0.123 · 84.0 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 37

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Lopez — 0.083 · 87.5 · 3.6% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.6% BRK 27.2% OFF 20.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Tyler Soderstrom L Edge

8.9% 16.7% 0.0% 9.4% C 56 +320

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

119

Carlos Cortes L Edge

7.8% 4.4% 8.7% 7.2% D 44 +475

129

Lawrence Butler L Edge

6.4% 9.8% 4.1% 6.5% D 42 +370

130

Henry Bolte R

7.5% 7.3% 5.0% 7.1% D 42 +525

166

Jacob Wilson R

3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% D 37 +950

185

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

0.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% D 32 +525

Read the columns: no single family leads Lowder's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 59.4% ← leak BRK 31.5% OFF 9.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Sal Stewart R Edge

16.7% 10.4% 10.3% 13.9% C+ 64 +305

Jj Bleday L

13.1% 8.0% 5.7% 10.2% C 59 +350

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

19.0% 10.7% 3.7% 14.0% C 59 +290

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Tyler Stephenson R Edge

15.0% 6.9% 5.9% 11.8% D 49 +350

Eugenio Suarez R Edge

12.3% 5.6% 6.2% 10.3% D 48 +350

120

Matt Mclain R Edge

9.3% 9.5% 0.0% 8.6% D 43 +500

170

Tj Friedl L

2.8% 4.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.4% usage) carries Lopez's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stewart Bleday Cruz

Legend

attack side — vs Lopez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jj Bleday +350 · 59

Sal Stewart +305 · 64

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 4 mph out 85°F open

↑

5 mph · out

86°F

6:40p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

84°F

7:40p

↑

5 mph · out

82°F

8:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

79°F

9:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

77°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.28× 85°F, wind 4 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Rhett Lowder · RHP 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Tyler Soderstrom 56 C +320 WARM 38 0.217 90.5 9.2% 20.0%vs RHP 405 15.3% 8.3% 15.1% 32

2 Carlos Cortes 44 D +475 COOL 119 0.150 89.9 8.0% 15.9%vs RHP 403 5.0% 0.0% 9.9% 12

3 Lawrence Butler 42 D +370 WARM 129 0.113 89.1 7.9% 17.1%vs RHP 405 4.3% 9.1% 8.8% 26

4 Henry Bolte 42 D +525 COOL 130 0.090 90.5 8.0% 5.0%vs RHP 420 9.4% 9.1% 6.5% 24

5 Jacob Wilson 37 D +950 COOL 166 0.123 84.0 4.5% 16.1%vs RHP 386 7.2% 0.0% 7.7% 39

6 Jeff Mcneil 32 D +525 WARM 185 0.080 86.3 3.1% 8.7%vs RHP 377 3.0% 0.0% 7.8% 33

vs Jacob Lopez · LHP 1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 64 C+ +305 WARM 15 0.224 90.5 8.4% 30.0%vs LHP 394 16.5% 41.7% 30.3% 30

2 Jj Bleday ✶ 59 C +350 WARM 23 0.235 88.7 7.4% 29.4%vs LHP 387 20.0% 100.0% 31.5% 26

3 Elly De La Cruz 59 C +290 · 26 0.221 94.3 8.6% 45.0%vs LHP 398 16.3% 7.7% 20.1% 32

4 Tyler Stephenson 49 D +350 WARM 81 0.159 91.2 7.8% 5.9%vs LHP 390 8.0% 9.1% 9.3% 22

5 Eugenio Suarez 48 D +350 WARM 82 0.185 88.7 7.3% 28.6%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 15

6 Matt Mclain 43 D +500 COOL 120 0.134 88.3 6.7% 21.1%vs LHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 12

7 Tj Friedl 36 D — COOL 170 0.083 87.5 3.6% 5.0% 374 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 8

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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