TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ BOS

Fenway Park is live · 1.26×

CWS @ BOS

Fenway Park · 7:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 7 mph out 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

7:10p

+4 ↑

8:10p

+4 ↑

9:10p

+4 ↑

10:10p

+4 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +5

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 27 · vs Gray ⟷ Ceddanne Rafaela conv 36 · vs Burke → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Sonny Gray RHP · BOS

leak 75

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami +290 C+ ●●●●○

2 Miguel Vargas +370 C ●●●●○

3 Andrew Benintendi +525 D ●●●○○

FADE Sean Burke RHP · CWS

leak 60

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ceddanne Rafaela +575 D ●●●●●

2 Wilyer Abreu +400 D ●●●○○

3 Jarren Duran +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 20.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Gray Edge +290 0.298 · 94.1 · 11.8% 25.0% 29.8% F B O C+ 61

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Gray +370 0.241 · 90.8 · 10.0% 25.0% 25.1% F B O C 55

· BOS Willson Contreras vs Burke +350 0.252 · 90.7 · 10.6% 7.7% 16.2% F B O C 52

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Gray Edge +350 0.233 · 89.2 · 9.3% 9.1% 14.8% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela HOT vs Burke +575 0.189 · 86.7 · 6.7% 53.8% 18.2% F B O D 45

· BOS Wilyer Abreu COOL vs Burke Edge +400 0.200 · 89.8 · 9.8% 23.1% 18.0% F B O D 48

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Gray Edge +525 0.186 · 88.9 · 7.9% 22.2% 18.3% F B O D 44

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Gray — 0.118 · 87.9 · 5.6% 16.7% 9.3% F B O D 32

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Burke Edge +575 0.149 · 89.3 · 8.8% 15.4% 9.5% F B O D 40

· CWS Sam Antonacci vs Gray Edge +750 0.131 · 87.8 · 6.6% 11.1% 7.3% F B O D 34

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Burke +575 0.191 · 89.3 · 8.4% 8.3% 8.6% F B O D 41

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Burke +750 0.158 · 84.1 · 4.2% 7.7% 9.2% F B O D 32

· BOS Masataka Yoshida vs Burke Edge +750 0.126 · 88.3 · 5.2% 7.7% 6.7% F B O D 32

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Gray Edge +850 0.149 · 87.2 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 33

· CWS Luisangel Acuna COOL vs Gray — 0.035 · 89.0 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.4% ← leak BRK 36.0% OFF 5.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

21.4% 18.6% 19.0% 20.1% C+ 61 +290

Miguel Vargas R

16.1% 12.4% 12.1% 14.6% C 55 +370

Colson Montgomery L Edge

12.5% 11.9% 13.9% 12.5% C 50 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

114

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

13.4% 4.8% 5.8% 9.3% D 44 +525

179

Sam Antonacci L Edge

8.3% 5.7% 0.0% 6.4% D 34 +750

182

Tristan Peters L Edge

6.0% 5.4% 0.0% 4.9% D 33 +850

186

Chase Meidroth R

4.0% 6.3% 4.2% 4.6% D 32 —

206

Luisangel Acuna R

3.9% 5.0% 0.0% 3.6% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.4% usage) carries Gray's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.4% ← leak BRK 39.0% OFF 2.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Willson Contreras R

12.3% 15.0% 21.9% 14.2% C 52 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

12.4% 14.3% 12.3% 12.8% D 48 +400

106

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.8% 6.1% 13.3% 5.8% D 45 +575

136

Andruw Monasterio R

7.9% 8.9% 16.7% 8.9% D 41 +575

141

Jarren Duran L Edge

12.2% 7.8% 8.1% 10.1% D 40 +575

187

Caleb Durbin R

3.0% 1.4% 3.3% 2.7% D 32 +750

191

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

4.7% 0.0% 2.4% 3.4% D 32 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.4% usage) carries Burke's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Vargas Benintendi Abreu Rafaela

Legend

attack side — vs Gray fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Munetaka Murakami +290 · 61

Miguel Vargas +370 · 55

Ceddanne Rafaela +575 · 45

Wilyer Abreu +400 · 48

Andrew Benintendi +525 · 44

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.90× Wind 7 mph out 85°F open

↑

6 mph · out

86°F

7:10p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

84°F

8:10p

↑

6 mph · out

81°F

9:10p

↑

6 mph · out

79°F

10:10p

↑

6 mph · out

77°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.26× 85°F, wind 7 mph SW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sonny Gray · RHP 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 61 C+ +290 · 18 0.298 94.1 11.8% 39.2%vs RHP 406 17.2% 25.0% 29.8% 28

2 Miguel Vargas 55 C +370 WARM 41 0.241 90.8 10.0% 16.9%vs RHP 392 21.1% 25.0% 25.1% 34

3 Colson Montgomery 50 C +350 COOL 70 0.233 89.2 9.3% 25.8%vs RHP 399 23.3% 9.1% 14.8% 29

4 Andrew Benintendi 44 D +525 COOL 114 0.186 88.9 7.9% 18.2%vs RHP 389 14.9% 22.2% 18.3% 22

5 Sam Antonacci 34 D +750 · 179 0.131 87.8 6.6% 14.8%vs RHP 390 10.8% 11.1% 7.3% 33

6 Tristan Peters 33 D +850 COOL 182 0.149 87.2 5.8% 9.5%vs RHP 377 7.5% 0.0% 7.7% 28

7 Chase Meidroth 32 D — WARM 186 0.118 87.9 5.6% 16.3%vs RHP 380 7.4% 16.7% 9.3% 35

8 Luisangel Acuna 23 D — COOL 206 0.035 89.0 5.0% 8.3%vs RHP 416 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 12

vs Sean Burke · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 52 C +350 · 57 0.252 90.7 10.6% 32.6%vs RHP 406 20.2% 7.7% 16.2% 21

2 Wilyer Abreu 48 D +400 COOL 85 0.200 89.8 9.8% 14.4%vs RHP 407 15.6% 23.1% 18.0% 37

3 Ceddanne Rafaela 45 D +575 HOT 106 0.189 86.7 6.7% 19.0%vs RHP 380 13.9% 53.8% 18.2% 42

4 Andruw Monasterio 41 D +575 COOL 136 0.191 89.3 8.4% 3.2%vs RHP 390 16.2% 8.3% 8.6% 33

5 Jarren Duran 40 D +575 COOL 141 0.149 89.3 8.8% 28.3%vs RHP 399 13.3% 15.4% 9.5% 40

6 Caleb Durbin 32 D +750 COOL 187 0.158 84.1 4.2% 20.0%vs RHP 373 9.5% 7.7% 9.2% 39

7 Masataka Yoshida 32 D +750 WARM 191 0.126 88.3 5.2% 10.9%vs RHP 368 11.3% 7.7% 6.7% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.