TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.47×

SF @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 2:35p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 8 mph out 99°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+11 ↑

1:35p

+12 ↑

2:35p

+14 ↑

3:35p

+14 ↑

4:35p

+14 ↑

5:35p

the 3:35p window peaks +14

Best of game Joc Pederson conv 26 · vs Whisenhunt ⟷ Rafael Devers conv 24 · vs Proxy → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Carson Whisenhunt LHP · SF

leak 80

1.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.86 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joc Pederson — C+ ●●●●○

2 Jake Burger +370 C ●●●○○

3 Ezequiel Duran +625 C ●●●○○

FADE TEX Bullpen Proxy

leak 60

1.26 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rafael Devers +320 C+ ●●●●○

2 Jung Hoo Lee — D ●●○○○

3 Bryce Eldridge +400 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.2% barrels overall vs the OFF leak · 14D pace 20.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ COOL vs Whisenhunt — 0.249 · 91.7 · 10.7% 20.0% 31.5% F B O C+ 66

· — Rafael Devers vs Proxy +320 0.227 · 92.3 · 10.9% 23.1% 25.3% F B O C+ 62

· TEX Jake Burger vs Whisenhunt Edge +370 0.184 · 90.2 · 10.5% 20.0% 23.6% F B O C 58

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Whisenhunt Edge +625 0.185 · 88.6 · 8.2% 23.1% 19.3% F B O C 54

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Whisenhunt Edge +370 0.224 · 89.5 · 9.3% 15.4% 21.0% F B O C 59

· — Bryce Eldridge COOL vs Proxy +400 0.188 · 92.2 · 12.1% 8.3% 12.9% F B O C 56

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Whisenhunt +500 0.165 · 92.2 · 10.8% 7.7% 11.8% F B O C 53

· TEX Corey Seager vs Whisenhunt +400 0.181 · 91.2 · 12.4% 0.0% 12.0% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· — Jung Hoo Lee vs Proxy — 0.147 · 86.8 · 2.6% 16.7% 13.9% F B O D 38

· — Willy Adames COOL vs Proxy +400 0.189 · 87.5 · 8.5% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 49

· — Drew Gilbert HOT vs Proxy — 0.113 · 86.2 · 2.6% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 33

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Whisenhunt — 0.137 · 88.0 · 7.8% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 45

· TEX Alejandro Osuna COOL vs Whisenhunt +850 0.041 · 86.8 · 2.5% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

OFF 37.7% ← leak FB 34.9% BRK 24.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Joc Pederson L

3.8% 13.8% 12.9% 11.2% C+ 66 —

Wyatt Langford R Edge

15.8% 5.3% 12.7% 8.5% C 59 +370

Jake Burger R Edge

10.0% 10.3% 13.1% 11.3% C 58 +370

Corey Seager L

17.2% 13.9% 14.7% 14.8% C 56 +400

Ezequiel Duran R Edge

0.0% 8.2% 6.3% 6.5% C 54 +625

Brandon Nimmo L

8.9% 9.1% 17.9% 11.4% C 53 +500

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

112

Evan Carter L

0.0% 8.1% 4.8% 5.9% D 45 —

196

Alejandro Osuna L

2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% D 31 +850

Read the columns: the offspeed family (37.7% usage) carries Whisenhunt's damage — OFF is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for TEX Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Langford Burger Duran Devers Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Whisenhunt fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Joc Pederson — · 66

Rafael Devers +320 · 62

Jake Burger +370 · 58

Ezequiel Duran +625 · 54

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 1:35p · roof retractable

Park 1.05× Wind 8 mph out 99°F retractable

+11

↑

8 mph · out

94°F

1:35p

+12

↑

8 mph · out

97°F

2:35p

+14

↑

9 mph · out

101°F

3:35p · peak

+14

↑

9 mph · out

101°F

4:35p

+14

↑

9 mph · out

100°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.47× 99°F, wind 8 mph S (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Carson Whisenhunt · LHP 1.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.86 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 66 C+ — COOL 10 0.249 91.7 10.7% 26.0% 394 21.5% 20.0% 31.5% 29

2 Wyatt Langford 59 C +370 WARM 25 0.224 89.5 9.3% 23.5%vs LHP 397 17.6% 15.4% 21.0% 34

3 Jake Burger 58 C +370 WARM 28 0.184 90.2 10.5% 27.8%vs LHP 398 15.8% 20.0% 23.6% 26

4 Corey Seager 56 C +400 WARM 39 0.181 91.2 12.4% 14.3%vs LHP 394 16.1% 0.0% 12.0% 12

5 Ezequiel Duran 54 C +625 · 48 0.185 88.6 8.2% 14.3%vs LHP 393 14.1% 23.1% 19.3% 41

6 Brandon Nimmo 53 C +500 COOL 53 0.165 92.2 10.8% 20.0%vs LHP 405 9.7% 7.7% 11.8% 36

7 Evan Carter 45 D — COOL 112 0.137 88.0 7.8% 0.0%vs LHP 374 8.8% 0.0% 7.0% 28

8 Alejandro Osuna 31 D +850 COOL 196 0.041 86.8 2.5% 0.0%vs LHP 364 2.4% 0.0% 6.7% 16

vs TEX Bullpen Proxy 1.26 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 62 C+ +320 · 27 0.227 92.3 10.9% 18.9% 398 18.0% 23.1% 25.3% 38

2 Bryce Eldridge 56 C +400 COOL 54 0.188 92.2 12.1% 17.7% 396 19.1% 8.3% 12.9% 28

3 Willy Adames 49 D +400 COOL 103 0.189 87.5 8.5% 13.4% 388 14.5% 0.0% 12.3% 35

4 Jung Hoo Lee 38 D — WARM 176 0.147 86.8 2.6% 9.2% 382 5.8% 16.7% 13.9% 39

5 Drew Gilbert 33 D — HOT 198 0.113 86.2 2.6% 7.1% 398 3.1% 0.0% 7.7% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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