TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.27×

STL @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 8 mph slight_out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

7:05p

+4 ↑

8:05p

+4 ↑

9:05p

+4 ↑

10:05p

+4 ↑

11:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · +4 FIT

Best of game Alec Burleson conv 15 · vs Warren ⟷ Ben Rice conv 23 · vs Pallante → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Will Warren RHP · NYY

leak 88

1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · leakiest side of this game

1 Alec Burleson +320 C ●●○○○

2 Nathan Church +625 D ●○○○○

3 José Fermín +700 D ●○○○○

FADE Andre Pallante RHP · STL

leak 78

0.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice +290 C+ ●●●●○

2 Austin Wells — D ●●●○○

3 Paul Goldschmidt — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 15.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 21.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ COOL vs Pallante Edge +290 0.290 · 92.1 · 9.6% 21.4% 25.1% F B O C+ 65

· STL Alec Burleson vs Warren Edge +320 0.192 · 91.8 · 9.2% 7.7% 22.9% F B O C 54

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Pallante — 0.204 · 86.3 · 7.9% 10.0% 13.6% F B O C 50

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Warren — 0.206 · 93.1 · 9.7% 0.0% 16.3% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· NYY Austin Wells HOT vs Pallante Edge — 0.121 · 89.4 · 6.8% 20.0% 15.0% F B O D 43

· NYY Trent Grisham COOL vs Pallante Edge +370 0.171 · 90.9 · 7.5% 7.7% 11.6% F B O D 46

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Warren Edge +625 0.131 · 86.2 · 7.1% 9.1% 9.8% F B O D 42

· STL José Fermín vs Warren +700 0.121 · 86.6 · 4.1% 10.0% 8.1% F B O D 37

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Pallante — 0.151 · 83.9 · 4.9% 0.0% 17.6% F B O D 37

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Pallante Edge +500 0.161 · 91.4 · 8.1% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 45

· STL Jj Wetherholt COOL vs Warren Edge +425 0.138 · 89.7 · 7.1% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 42

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Warren +525 0.133 · 89.1 · 6.2% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 37

· STL Masyn Winn vs Warren +750 0.079 · 88.0 · 4.6% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.1% ← leak BRK 24.4% OFF 11.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.7% 12.4% 10.7% 11.7% C 54 +320

Jordan Walker R

13.4% 11.7% 14.7% 13.0% C 54 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

124

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

9.7% 3.4% 2.0% 7.0% D 42 +425

128

Nathan Church L Edge

8.1% 6.8% 5.4% 7.0% D 42 +625

159

Ivan Herrera R

5.1% 5.2% 6.8% 5.4% D 37 +525

165

José Fermín R

2.7% 2.4% 0.0% 2.2% D 37 +700

189

Masyn Winn R

3.4% 2.2% 3.2% 3.0% D 32 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.1% usage) carries Warren's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 49.2% ← leak BRK 48.0% OFF 2.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ben Rice L Edge

18.5% 12.4% 11.8% 15.5% C+ 65 +290

Paul Goldschmidt R

14.2% 4.6% 9.4% 10.6% C 50 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

100

Trent Grisham L Edge

10.6% 8.5% 5.4% 9.5% D 46 +370

104

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

13.4% 4.5% 12.5% 10.9% D 45 +500

121

Austin Wells L Edge

9.2% 9.1% 0.0% 7.7% D 43 —

158

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.2% usage) carries Pallante's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Burleson Rice Wells

Legend

attack side — vs Warren fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Ben Rice +290 · 65

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 8 mph slight_out 80°F open

↑

9 mph · slight_out

79°F

7:05p · peak

↑

9 mph · slight_out

77°F

8:05p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

75°F

9:05p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

74°F

10:05p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

72°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.27× 80°F, wind 8 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Will Warren · RHP 1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Alec Burleson 54 C +320 WARM 46 0.192 91.8 9.2% 21.7%vs RHP 402 14.8% 7.7% 22.9% 39

2 Jordan Walker 54 C — COOL 49 0.206 93.1 9.7% 28.3%vs RHP 406 16.7% 0.0% 16.3% 39

3 Jj Wetherholt 42 D +425 COOL 124 0.138 89.7 7.1% 17.2%vs RHP 391 16.7% 0.0% 10.1% 40

4 Nathan Church 42 D +625 COOL 128 0.131 86.2 7.1% 19.4%vs RHP 384 9.1% 9.1% 9.8% 30

5 Ivan Herrera 37 D +525 · 159 0.133 89.1 6.2% 17.1%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 39

6 José Fermín 37 D +700 WARM 165 0.121 86.6 4.1% 8.7%vs RHP 388 6.4% 10.0% 8.1% 35

7 Masyn Winn 32 D +750 · 189 0.079 88.0 4.6% 9.3%vs RHP 390 3.7% 0.0% 8.2% 34

vs Andre Pallante · RHP 0.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 65 C+ +290 COOL 13 0.290 92.1 9.6% 32.4%vs RHP 390 25.2% 21.4% 25.1% 32

2 Paul Goldschmidt 50 C — COOL 71 0.204 86.3 7.9% 18.9%vs RHP 390 16.2% 10.0% 13.6% 32

3 Trent Grisham 46 D +370 COOL 100 0.171 90.9 7.5% 16.1%vs RHP 388 11.4% 7.7% 11.6% 41

4 Ryan Mcmahon 45 D +500 WARM 104 0.161 91.4 8.1% 22.2%vs RHP 387 16.7% 0.0% 11.8% 23

5 Austin Wells 43 D — HOT 121 0.121 89.4 6.8% 16.2%vs RHP 387 10.4% 20.0% 15.0% 15

6 Jose Caballero 37 D — WARM 158 0.151 83.9 4.9% 22.2%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 17.6% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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